-Caveat Lector- WJPBR Email News List [EMAIL PROTECTED] Peace at any cost is a prelude to war! STRATFOR.COM Global Intelligence Update November 25, 1999 Hungary Balks at the Price of NATO Membership Summary: Hungary's ambassador to NATO has said that his country cannot afford to modernize its jet fighters quickly enough to meet the alliance's requirements for interoperability, maintenance and logistical support. Instead, the Hungarian government seems poised to equip its forces to defend Hungary first and delay buying new fighters to conform with alliance standards. NATO will face two difficult choices: spending billions of dollars equipping its newest members or living with them as second-rate militaries. In the case of Hungary, the latter choice would expose what is now the alliance's eastern-most border. Analysis: On Nov. 20, Hungary's ambassador to NATO, Andra Simonyi said that his country cannot afford to update its fleet of Soviet-era fighters to meet the alliance's requirements for interoperability, maintenance and logistical support. In an interview with the Reuters news agency, Simonyi said that Hungary should meet its own defense obligations before adapting its military for specialized roles required by NATO planners. His statement underscores a wider problem: turning NATO's three newest members into true assets for the defense of Europe. They are geographically exposed to the east and technologically out of step with Western forces. Various types of munitions in Hungarian, Polish and Czech forces don't match NATO's. Neither does the supply chain of spare parts. Officers in the militaries of NATO's newest members also lack adequate language training in English, the alliance's working language. The differences between the forces of NATO's original 16 members and its newest three have only become more evident since the end of the Kosovo conflict, and the resultant after-action reviews. Last month, defense ministry officials in Budapest announced that they would need five to eight years to meet NATO standards. On Oct. 29, Brig. Gen. Lajos Erdelyi said that while inadequate equipment has always plagued the 43,000-strong armed forces, the war against Yugoslavia demonstrated just how inadequate much of it really is. Hungary's public involvement in the conflict was limited to allowing NATO jets to use two airports. Hungary's immediate problems revolve around its fleet of 27 MiG-29 Fulcrum fighters. Though fine front line fighters, the jets still use Soviet-style Identification Friend or Foe (IFF), making it nearly impossible for alliance jets to positively identify them as allied aircraft. On-board systems are limited compared to NATO jets. And unlike most alliance combat aircraft, the Fulcrums cannot refuel during flight, further limiting their use. Spare parts are also scarce; the chief source would be a potentially undependable supplier, Russia's Mikoyan. Germany's DASA has offered to upgrade the MiGs. The German Luftwaffe has had to upgrade its own Fulcrums, which were acquired from the former East Germany. But Hungary probably cannot afford such an extensive overhaul. The chief problem, though, is not technical. It is ultimately financial and political. NATO has expanded its borders eastward with little consideration for the nature of those borders or local forces. Indeed, Simonyi's statement suggests frustration. In dealing with all three new members, the alliance has lent little direct assistance to upgrade equipment. Instead, individual countries must shoulder the financial and political burdens of choosing new suppliers. But Hungary is at greater disadvantage than either Poland or the Czech Republic. Hungary is simply poorer. Expansion without adequate strategy is a luxury that the alliance may not be able to afford for long. The post-Cold War interim period is drawing to a close. Russia is becoming increasingly belligerent - and that increasingly makes the militaries of Central Europe nervous [ http://www.stratfor.com/CIS/specialreports/special10.htm ]. But NATO has remained in its post-Cold War role: not so much a bloc poised to defend Europe as a quasi-military organization that also acts as a gateway to Europe's economic clubs. In accepting new members and rejecting others on this basis, NATO has created two critical flaws. First, it has failed to create a contiguous eastern front, mainly by choosing to exclude Slovakia [ http://www.stratfor.com/services/giu/010799.asp ]. The second flaw is now painfully evident. The countries the alliance did include are struggling to integrate their militaries with NATO forces and will be delayed by years - in the best of scenarios [ http://www.stratfor.com/cis/commentary/c9910021510.htm ]. Wittingly or not, Hungary is merely reminding the alliance that it must either pay dearly to upgrade the militaries of Central Europe or live with indefensible borders. (c) 1999, Stratfor, Inc. http://www.stratfor.com/ **COPYRIGHT NOTICE** In accordance with Title 17 U. S. C. Section 107, any copyrighted work in this message is distributed under fair use without profit or payment to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for nonprofit research and educational purposes only.[Ref. http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml ] DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion and informational exchange list. Proselyzting propagandic screeds are not allowed. Substance—not soapboxing! 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