-Caveat Lector-

Inside the Ring
Bill Gertz and Rowan Scarborough

Taiwan HARM


              The government of Taiwan secretly asked the
              Clinton administration last month to sell it
              High-speed Anti-Radiation Missiles, or HARMs, as
              part of its annual request for defensive arms, we
              are told. Disclosure of the request for the
              air-launched missiles, which home in on radar
              beacons used to track aircraft, comes amid
              disclosure in The Washington Times on
              Wednesday that China is building a new
              air-defense missile site near Taiwan.

              A fight is under way inside the administration over
              the request for HARMs, which have been star
              weapons used in the Balkans and Iraq in recent
              months to knock out anti-aircraft batteries.

              Pro-Beijing officials at the State Department are
              opposing U.S. sales of HARMs, arguing the
              missiles could be used to knock out the
              surface-to-air missile sites like the one being built
              at Zhangzhou on China's coast, thus would be
              considered offensive weapons because the site is
              on the mainland.

              Pentagon officials in favor of the sale deem them
              necessary to maintain a balance of forces. They
              point out that the HARMs are defensive missiles
              allowed under the Taiwan Relations Act governing
              U.S. arms sales to the island. Officials told us the
              HARMs would be very effective against China's
              two new Sovremenny-class guided-missile
              destroyers, which come equipped with ample
              radar for HARMs to attack -- and are not on the
              mainland.

              Russia will turn over the first new destroyer to
              China tomorrow in St. Petersburg. The ship is the
              first of two equipped with supersonic SS-N-22
              cruise missiles to be based in Shanghai,
              conveniently close to Taiwan.

              China rebuttal

              Some members of the special Cox committee on
              Chinese spying are irate at the bashing they took in
              a report by a Stanford University think tank.

              The report, which received prominent play in
              liberal news outlets who take a benign view of
              Chinese global aims, castigated the bipartisan Cox
              team for purportedly jumping to wild conclusions.
              The Cox panel, named after Rep. Christopher Cox,
              the chairman and California Republican,
              concluded that Chinese spies stole design
              information for the most advanced thermonuclear
              weapons in the U.S. arsenal. The report was based
              on the most secret information in the U.S.
              intelligence community.

              Now, an ally of Mr. Cox's has drafted a rebuttal to
              the Stanford critics. We obtained a copy of "50
              Factual Errors in the Four (Stanford) Essays.'' The
              counterattack was authored by Nicholas Rostow,
              staff director for the Senate Select Committee on
              Intelligence who worked for the Cox panel.

              Pulling no punches, Mr. Rostow begins: "The
              publisher of the essays, Stanford's Center for
              International Security and Cooperation, is the
              direct successor of the Center for International
              Security and Arms Control, an organization whose
              conclusions on Soviet intentions and compliance
              with arms-control treaties were notoriously
              wrong.''

              Mr. Rostow then proceeds to uncover what he
              termed 50 ``factual errors disclosed in a cursory
              review of the four essays.''

              Some examples:

                 "According to (one Stanford essay), the
                 committee report `maintains that PRC
                 penetration of U.S. labs commenced in the late
                 1970s.' No such statement is made in the
                 report.''
                 "(One essay) refers to the W-88 thermonuclear
                 warhead as `old' technology. It is, in fact, the
                 most modern nuclear weapon in the U.S.
                 arsenal, and until it was compromised, no
                 other nation in the world possessed such a
                 weapon. ... Since the W-88 is America's most
                 modern nuclear weapon, (the essay's)
                 description of it as `old' trivializes a very
                 important national security loss.''
                 One essay ``states that `no evidence is given in
                 any of the reports that the design of the (new,
                 smaller PRC nuclear warhead) was derived
                 from U.S. information.' That the specific
                 evidence is not given merely reflects the fact
                 that it is classified. The conclusion has been
                 stated, not only in the committee report, but
                 also in the public versions of the two
                 intelligence community reports on this subject
                 to Congress during 1999.''

              Keep watching the sky

              The North American Aerospace Defense
              Command, known as NORAD, will use its
              formidable satellite and ground radar tracking
              systems for the 44th year in a row to monitor the
              transit of a sleigh and nine -- not eight -- tiny
              reindeer from the North Pole today.

              Santa Claus' journey will be picked up first by
              Defense Support Satellites -- those that would spot
              a Chinese or Russian intercontinental ballistic
              missile launch, says a smiling NORAD spokesman,
              Master Sgt. Larry Lincoln.

              ``We can pick up the heat from Rudolph's nose,''
              Lincoln said of the ninth reindeer pulling Santa's
              present-filled sleigh. The monitoring is intended to
              ``keep the magic alive for children around the
              world,'' he said.

              About 100 Air Force and other volunteers will staff
              phone lines inside NORAD's Cheyenne Mountain
              complex in Colorado Springs for children to call in
              their Christmas wishes or get an update on Santa's
              travel. A World Wide Web site will provide
              animation showing Santa's annual Christmas Eve
              journey. Last year 80 million people visited the
              website and about 20,000 people called to find out
              the latest Santa update.


              Bill Gertz and Rowan Scarborough are national security
              reporters for The Washington Times.



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