-Caveat Lector- from alt.conspiracy ----- As always, Caveat Lector. Om K ----- <A HREF="aol://5863:126/alt.conspiracy:535462">Intelligence Digest</A> ----- Subject: Intelligence Digest From: "Michael Swanson" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Date: Mon, 05 July 1999 01:57 PM EDT Message-id: <01bec70f$b65ae680$[EMAIL PROTECTED]> The report contains two components. The first is a news digest that contains links to breaking stories that you will not find from the mainstream news or on television. Readers for instance recieved in depth reports in June regarding the Bilberberg conference held in Portugal. Secondly we provide detailed coverage of the stock market, often providing with stock trading analysis and tips. Our goal is to provide you with an intelligence report in your email box that will help you understand current events and the historical forces behind them. Subscribing is free: http://pws.gamewood.net/~mswanson/IntelligenceOnline.htm World News Digest Chinese Stock Market Offers Window into Power Shift http://www.stratford.com/asia/specialreports/special20.htm Summary Reports on July 1 indicated that the Chinese Securities Regulatory Commission and the Securities Supervision Office notified major brokerages and fund management institutions in China to cease buying on the stock market in order to slow a six-week rally. The reported intervention sent the Shanghai composite index down 8.24 percent. One day earlier, rumors had emerged that Chinese Prime Minister Zhu Rongji was resigning over his failure to attain Chinese accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), which resulted in a 2.99 percent drop in the Shanghai composite index. The government intervention in the Chinese markets, coupled with the reports of Zhu’s resignation – which were then denied – signals the extent of the growing split between the economic reformers and the political party apparatus within the Chinese government Japan’s Financial Solutions Simply Illusions http://www.stratford.com/asia/specialreports/special20.htm Summary Japanese Financial Reconstruction Commission head Hakuo Yanagisawa gave a speech to the Japan National Press Club on June 28, in which he said Japan currently has too many banks. Yanagisawa said he foresaw the formation of super-regional and global banks as a reaction to the current surplus of financial institutions. Yanagisawa also said he would announce plans later this week for the government to reclaim the $63 billion in public money it pumped into Japan’s banking system in March. Yanagisawa’s comments emphasize again the short-term solutions Japan continues to propose for its long-term economic troubles. US News Digest Bill Bradley Positioned for Credible Challenge to Gore http://www.washingtonpost.org/wp-srv/politics/campaigns/wh2000/stories/bradl ey07059.htm Summary What the experts said wouldn't happen apparently has happened: former New Jersey senator Bill Bradley has collected enough money and positioned himself strategically to mount a credible challenge to Vice President Gore for the Democratic presidential nomination, according to strategists from both parties. Bush With Big-Money Boys http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/1999-06/25/0141-062599-ix.html Summary Ask George W. Bush, and he'll tell you he's the candidate for voters who don't like the status quo. "If people like the status quo, if they're happy with what's happening in Washington," Bush said, they can vote for Al Gore. Then, "You can come down and go fishing with me in Texas." That's what Bush said last week. This week, the Washington status quo threw a big party, a fund-raiser for none other than Texas Gov. George W. Bush. of a Republican social register." Alison Mitchell of the New York Times called the crowd "a veritable who's who of Republican power brokers." Bush Received Quick Air Guard Commission http://www.latimes.com/HOME/NEWS/POLITICS/ELECTION2000/PRES/lat_bush990704.h tm Summary During Vietnam War, he was given coveted spot in Texas unit and became officer without special training, credentials. There is no evidence rules were broken for him Stock Market Report A Record Breaking Week We get an interest rate increase and the stock market rallies to new highs. Investors were put at ease by the Fed’s switch from a tightening to a neutral bias. However, at this time Alan Greenspan and the Federal Reserve don’t seem to be so much concerned with stopping any existing inflation - which to be frank doesn’t exist in the first place - as they are with slowing down the economy in order to prevent any drop of inflation from ever appearing. Despite the neutral bias, don’t be surprised if Greenspan announces another hike in rates next month. For now the market will be driven by earnings reports and economic data. This week the big report will be Yahoo. Economic data could cause more uncertainty and volatility in the markets, like we experienced last month, if it points to signs of economic growth. In my opinion Greenspan is playing a fools game if he tries to raise rates to slow down economic growth, but I’ll have more to say on that in a future issue. Update on Books-A-Million The firm of Soloman Smith and Barney issued an analyst report maintaining its hold coverage position on Books-A-Million(BAMM). It pretty much echoes my own sentiments of BAMM, but goes into more detail. Its a very bearish report. Retail investors, if you can call them that, doubled the value of this stock last Thursday on news that BAMM was named as the distributor for books that Wal-Mart sells on a web-site. The mention of Internet and books created a buying panic as people bought the stock thinking they had found the next Amazon.com. The Smith Barney report says it is overvalued in the short term based upon the Wal-Mart news. It doesn’t expect BAMM to profit from the deal until 2001. Here is the report: Soloman Smith Barney Report Books-A-Million announced a strategic alliance with Wal-Mart to provide distribution for all Wal-Mart's online book sales, with a start date to be announced shortly. Under this highly synergistic relationship, we expect that BAMM will benefit significantly from leverage of Wal-Mart's brand name and buying power. The company is not disclosing the terms of alliance or providing guidance regarding the EPS impact. While we do not expect any financial impact until Fiscal 2001, we expect the relationship to be significantly additive in the long-term. Wal-Mart does not disclose the portion of revenues it derives from the Internet, and the company is still in the early stages of developing its Web Site. The company has made a strong commitment to rapidly expanding its on-line presence and clearly has the resources to do so. Wal-Mart, which does not have direct-to-customer shipping and billing capabilities, is using strategic alliances such as this one to rapidly develop its on-line capabilities. Salomon Smith Barney estimates that Wal-Mart's 1998 on-line revenues were between $20m and $30m, with approximately 5%-10% derived from book sales, and this number is expected to ramp sharply. BAMM does have a preexisting relationship with Wal-Mart and extensive experience with retail book distribution through its wholly owned subsidiary, American Wholesale Book Company. The agreement, therefore, allows BAMM to leverage existing assets and expertise. A start date for the venture has not been identified, but we expect BAMM to begin shipping for the important holiday season. However, due to related start-up costs and the initially relatively small sales volume we anticipate, we do not expect the relationship to yield a positive contribution to BAMM's earnings in FY00. In FY01 the financial contribution should be evident but relatively modest. Longer-term, with a ramp up in Wal-Mart's on-line business, we expect the earnings contribution to BAMM to be meaningful. Valuation:Despite rich valuations on near-term earnings, we are maintaining our Neutral rating on BAMM due to the longer-term potential earnings' benefit we see from this alliance. In addition, BAMM's retail book business does seem to be turning, and the company has good upside potential in its own Internet business. While details surrounding the arrangement are not sufficient to project FY02 EPS, the proposition will most certainly increase BAMM's growth rate. If the company's core retail business can grow at 12%-13%, and if we conjecture that Wal-Mart can ramp up its Internet business at a pace similar to Amazon.com, BAMM should be able to double its earnings over the next three years, off a depressed FY00 level. Nonetheless, at current valuations we think this longer-term potential earnings impact is fully reflected in the stock. If BAMM were to earn $0.50 in FY02, the stock is already trading at almost 28X that number. DISCLAIMER: This newsletter and website are intended for purely educational use. I am not responsible for any losses or profits that may result from the application of information contained within this website or The Stock Market Report newsletter. http://ns.gamewood.net/~mswanson/MARKET.HTM ----- Aloha, He'Ping, Om, Shalom, Salaam. Em Hotep, Peace Be, Omnia Bona Bonis, All My Relations. Adieu, Adios, Aloha. Amen. Roads End Kris DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion and informational exchange list. 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