-Caveat Lector-

http://www.suntimes.com/output/novak/cst-edt-novak27.html
Whither Colin Powell?

January 27, 2003

BY ROBERT NOVAK SUN-TIMES COLUMNIST


Because Colin Powell has been relied upon to impede the nation's march
to war in Iraq, apprehensive Republicans were startled last week by his
suddenly bellicose rhetoric. So were investors, and they sent the Dow
Jones average into a 238-point swoon Friday. Yet, the secretary of state
had not yet joined the war hawks pressing for the military overthrow of
Saddam Hussein.

Powell, a master at negotiating the national security bureaucracy's
dangerous waters over the past generation, knows that now is not the
hour to publicly dissent from President Bush's hard line or give Iraq the
impression of a divided U.S. government. Beneath the surface, however,
Powell remains the voice of restraint against unilateral action.

That is one cause of Powell's genuine anger when France joined Germany
in counting itself out of an attack on Baghdad. It prevented a solid
coalition and also contributed to the contempt by the administration's
hawks against alliance warfare, with Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld
sneering that France and Germany are ''old Europe.''

Powell is reported as even more frustrated by the mindless intransigence
of the Iraqi regime. Officials in Baghdad who have had indirect, unofficial
contact with Powell have begged for some counsel from Washington on
how to avert a war they would be doomed to lose. The secretary of state--
also indirectly and unofficially--asked for confessions of weapons violations
from the regime. All he got was the ''discovery'' of four empty chemical
weapons warheads.

Nevertheless, prospects for war are unchanged at this writing: probable
but not inevitable. After debate at the White House, it was decided to
hold open the president's State of the Union address Tuesday to take note
of Monday's report by United Nations weapons inspectors. One senior aide
told me the president had not given the go sign for war. Until Powell's
warlike comments last Thursday, critics of unilateral action felt the climate
was turning against war.

These critics are apprehensive about the diplomatic fallout--not the
military outcome--of the Anglo-Americans going it alone. Nobody gives
credence to Rumsfeld's comments last week that ''a very large number of
countries . . . are anxious'' to join a military campaign.

On the day of Rumsfeld's comments, signals from Ankara indicated Turkey is
not so ''anxious.'' Bulint Arinc, speaker of the Turkish Parliament, declined
a luncheon invitation from U.S. Ambassador Robert Pearson. The chairmen
of Parliament's foreign affairs and defense committees spurned similar
invitations. Disaffection by Iraq's neighbor is more significant than Franco-
German opposition.

Worried Republicans, while avoiding a split with their president, cannot
restrain their concern. In his syndicated column last week, Jack Kemp
praised Bush's handling of Iraq and then issued this warning: ''We are so
close to victory that it would be a tragedy if a few war hawks pushed us
into an unnecessary invasion and occupation of an Arab country.'' The
GOP's 1996 vice presidential candidate concluded that ''now is the time to
sit down across the table from the Iraqis, eyeball to eyeball, and tell them
precisely what they must do to avoid war.''

Sen. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska, second-ranking Republican on the Senate
Foreign Relations Committee, is in the same boat as Kemp.

''America must guard against the hubris of great power,'' he declared at the
University of Notre Dame on Friday. He cited The Savage Wars of Peace by
Max Boot, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and an
intellectual guide of the war hawks. ''In deploying American power,'' Boot
writes, ''decision makers should be less apologetic, less hesitant, less
humble.'' Hagel advised that America today ''needs more humility.''

Nobody doubts that Powell is closer to Hagel than to Boot. In a dinner
with the president last Aug. 5, Powell laid out the fearsome consequences
of unilateral U.S. military action. Surely, the general did not change that
much during the intervening six months. Whether events have made his
comments irrelevant worries like-minded Republicans.



















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