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Peace at any cost is a Prelude to War!

Macedonia Struggles With Peace Deal
September 28, 2001

Summary

With Operation Essential Harvest coming to a close, pressure is intensifying
for the Macedonian government to grant ethnic Albanians greater
constitutional rights. The new global security equation gives Skopje little
choice, but the result will be a very fragile peace and a more radical
government in 2002.

Analysis

Operation Essential Harvest, NATO's 30-day mission to collect arms from
ethnic Albanian militants in Macedonia, concluded Sept. 26 with 3,875 weapons
collected, exceeding the goal. But the Sept. 28 deadline for improving ethnic
minority rights under the Macedonian constitution passed without the required
amendments.

Ethnic Albanians have outmaneuvered the Macedonian government politically
since the peace agreement was signed. Although NATO has praised the rebel
National Liberation Army (NLA) for its "genuine commitment to disarmament,"
the alliance has warned Skopje repeatedly against foot-dragging on the
constitutional changes and politicization of the peace process. The alliance
also has cautioned Skopje against capitalizing on the Sept. 11 terrorist
attacks in the United States to wriggle out of its commitments. Skopje has
little choice but to approve the amendments, but the move will do little to
secure a lasting peace in Macedonia.

Making such changes under European and American duress will stir public
discontent and further polarize the Macedonian population, which is about
two-thirds Slavic and one-quarter ethnic Albanian. Macedonian Slavs could
vent their frustration with both guns and votes. Wayward police and
paramilitary groups may seek to exact revenge on ethnic Albanians,
potentially driving the NLA to rearm. Also, the general electorate will
punish moderate, pro-European leaders by voting for more radical parties in
January's national elections.




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