New York Post-August 31, 2000 HILLARY'S POLL NUMBERS ADD UP TO TROUBLE By Dick Morris THE most recent Zogby poll, published in The Post, shows Hillary ahead 47-45 in the Senate race in New York. But, far from being good for the first lady, it is terrible news that suggests her candidacy is in real trouble. Any incumbent or front-runner needs to focus on only one number: is he or she over or under 50 percent of the vote? If 47 percent have decided to back Hillary, then 53 percent have decided to vote against her. Some of them have just not decided yet to vote for Lazio. If she is "ahead" by 47-45, she is really behind by 53-47. In the Zogby poll, Al Gore wins 54 percent of the vote in New York state while Hillary Clinton gets but 47 percent. One out of eight Gore voters doesn't back Hillary. With the vice president carrying the state by a whopping 21 points, Hillary manages just a 2-point lead. More important, after a nationally televised convention speech seen by half of New York's voters and a strong Democratic trend coming out of the Los Angeles convention, Hillary still is three points shy of the magic 50 percent plus one that she needs to win. When all has been said in Hillary's favor and against her, she can get only 47 percent of the vote in the best of times. In the war for the Senate in New York, the Battle of Hillary is over. She lost. Her positives failed to take her over 50 percent. Her affirmative campaign has fallen short. She will never again have such advantages as she has enjoyed these past three weeks. The Battle of Rick Lazio has begun. Hillary could still win this seat. She must attack, attack and attack. She must attack whatever the cost, however much it takes, and whatever backlash she incurs. She can no longer win this race with positives. For his part, Lazio needs to defend, defend and defend. He doesn't need to spend his resources attacking Hillary. He needs to make sure that her attacks fall short and backfire. This race for Senate is now approximately where the Schumer-D'Amato contest was in early September. After Schumer won the nomination in a primary against Geraldine Ferraro and Mark Green, the incumbent Sen. Alfonse D'Amato was under 50 percent of the vote. At that point, Schumer and D'Amato both realized that unless the Republican could sully Schumer's image, the incumbent D'Amato would lose. What followed were two months of nonstop negatives by D'Amato against the New York congressman. Schumer kept up a light fire against D'Amato, just to keep the incumbent's negatives high, but made the key decision to concentrate the vast bulk of his money on rebutting each of the Republican's charges. First D'Amato said Schumer was too liberal. Schumer answered by pointing to his support for a balanced budget. Round One Schumer. Then D'Amato hit Schumer for ignoring the needs of upstate. The Brooklyn Democrat replied by talking about his commitment to serving the whole state. Round Two - Schumer. Then, D'Amato hit Schumer's attendance record, which had lagged dangerously as he ran for the Senate. Chuck seemed lost and unable to come up with a decent answer until he hit upon the fact that D'Amato's attendance record in congressional committees and in Nassau government, where he had served before coming to the Senate, wasn't too hot either. When that final negative fell flat, it was Round Three and the Match to Schumer. Now Hillary has to come up with concerted lines of attack against Lazio. Her first is clearly a replay of D'Amato's against Schumer - the ideology card. She says Lazio is too conservative, linking him with Gingrich in backing the 1995-96 GOP budget cuts in Medicare, Medicaid, education and the environment. To answer, Lazio should step aside from the blow and rattle off his many efforts to increase these federal programs. He should then counterpunch by assailing the Clintons' 1995 cuts in hospital aid to New York. President Clinton even line-item vetoed this assistance. Only when Hillary started running was the aid restored. If Lazio's rebuttal succeeds, Hillary will move on to other negatives and Lazio must move on to other rebuttals. So the game will go on. If Hillary can score, she can win. But if Lazio pulls a Schumer and keeps parrying the first lady's blows, he's in for a 7-10 point win. ================================================================= Kadosh, Kadosh, Kadosh, YHVH, TZEVAOT FROM THE DESK OF: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> *Mike Spitzer* <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> ~~~~~~~~ <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> The Best Way To Destroy Enemies Is To Change Them To Friends Shalom, A Salaam Aleikum, and to all, A Good Day. ================================================================= <A HREF="http://www.ctrl.org/">www.ctrl.org</A> DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion & informational exchange list. 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