-Caveat Lector-
>From Irish Times
> Thursday, July 15, 1999
>
> Comparison with 1974 shows how far we have come
>
>
>
> -----------------------------------------------------------------
> ------- Opinion/Mary Holland
>
>
> Have we passed the Point of No Return? This was the phrase used
> by Hugo Patterson, the spokesman for the Northern Ireland
> Electricity Service, on BBC Radio Ulster on May 28th, 1974. He
> was saying that a complete shutdown of power in Norther Ireland
> had already begun and could not be reversed.
>
> It was this statement, marking the climax of the Ulster Workers'
> Council strike, which led to Brian Faulkner's resignation and the
> downfall of the first power-sharing executive. Comparisons have
> been drawn between Sunningdale and the Belfast Agreement, which
> faces another moment of crisis today. The accord has been
> described as "Sunningdale for Slow Learners" because it includes
> the same ingredients for a settlement - power-sharing in Northern
> Ireland and institutional links between Belfast and Dublin. The
> sneer has usually been directed at Sinn Féin - but in fact it
> serves to underline how far both communities travelled in the
> intervening years.
>
> There has been loose talk this week that Northern Ireland is in
> danger of losing the best opportunity for peace in this
> generation and is facing into the abyss. But one has only to look
> back, in the most cursory way, at the situation that prevailed in
> 1974 to realise, with gratitude, how utterly things have changed.
>
> The violence was at its height. The IRA was committed to securing
> British withdrawal from Northern Ireland. Sinn Féin had no
> effective political strategy. The unionist community was so
> deeply alienated by the Sunningdale proposals that the UWC strike
> of 1974, organised by loyalist paramilitaries, commanded
> widespread support among the Protestant middle class, including
> the civil service.
>
> In May 1974 Northern Ireland was facing a crisis where food
> supplies were running short, there was no gas, the sewage system
> was threatened and the telephone network was on the verge of
> collapse as power ran low.
>
> Today there is peace, albeit imperfect, on the streets. The
> political climate has been transformed. The republican movement
> has accepted the principle of consent and is committed to the
> political process. We may even see decommissioning, sooner rather
> than later.
>
> The unionist political community has travelled an equal distance.
> An opinion poll of unionist voters in the Belfast News Letter
> last week registered widespread opposition to The Way Forward
> document, while it also showed an overwhelming majority of
> unionist voters in favour of power sharing - 84 per cent of
> Ulster Unionist supporters, 71 per cent among PUP/UDP, and 58 per
> cent approval among those who voted for the DUP.
>
> In the debate of the past few weeks the issue of cross-Border
> bodies, which seemed at one time likely to wreck the Good Friday
> agreement, has hardly surfaced.
>
> As with so much else, the unionist community has taken time to
> get used to the idea and now largely accepts that closer
> co-operation with this thriving State makes sense.
>
> One could go on and on. The past 25 years have been bitter for
> both communities. At one level it seemed that for almost 20 years
> no progress was made. The violence continued. Politics consisted
> of one botched initiative after another, with failure adding to
> the sense of hopelessness. But at a deeper level the necessary
> shifts in attitude were taking place.
>
> Some people would argue that what is on offer now could have been
> achieved in 1974 and that over 2,000 lives would have been saved.
> We will never know if that is true or not. What we can say is
> that the long and painful years of learning have helped to bring
> both communities to where we are today.
>
> Last Monday night on Questions and Answers, Inez MacCormack, the
> incoming president of the Irish Congress of Trade Unions, spoke
> movingly of how so called ordinary people have worked to forge
> understanding across the sectarian divide. It hasn't been easy,
> not at all. Often they have been frightened and mistrustful. But
> they have persevered and thus helped to create the sea change in
> political attitudes in Northern Ireland.
>
> At a time like this the whole process can look dreadfully
> fragile. Tony Blair issues dire warnings about the consequences
> of failure. The Taoiseach, who really should know better, seems
> to have caught the British Prime Minister's taste for the
> apocalyptic. In an article in this newspaper a couple of days
> ago, Mr Ahern wrote that what happens this week "could determine
> the future of Northern Ireland for a long time to come, for
> better or worse".
>
> This is nonsense. It will be a marvellous and happy day for all
> the people of this island if it proves possible to set up a
> power-sharing executive, with the support of both communities in
> the North. But if it does not happen, then the two governments
> and the political parties will have to pick up the pieces and try
> again, probably a few weeks from now. That is what politics is
> about. There are lessons to be learnt from the experience of
> 1974. The most important is to remember what happened to Brian
> Faulkner. He tried to give leadership of a kind that involved
> taking risks, just as David Trimble is being urged to do this
> week. Faulkner was forced to resign as leader of his party after
> a humiliating defeat by the Ulster Unionist Council, within days
> of the power sharing executive being set up. A brave man, he made
> the mistake of moving too fast for his own supporters.
>
> David Trimble has already warned that if he gambles this week and
> gets the gamble wrong, it could lead to the loss of the current
> leadership of the UUP. Mr Trimble was around in 1974, a supporter
> of William Craig in his efforts to defeat Sunning dale. It is
> often forgotten that Craig's own political career never recovered
> after he seemed tempted, under Merlyn Rees, to support a
> temporary power-sharing coalition.
>
> Mr Trimble has shown skill in avoiding the mistakes of his
> predecessors. He knows there is no point in taking risks if he
> can't bring his own party with him, at least at this time. But
> equally the Ulster Unionist leader knows that the political
> landscape in Northern Ireland has changed quite fundamentally
> since 1974. The community he represents is prepared to accept
> power-sharing and cross-Border bodies, ideas which precipitated a
> full-scale state of emergency in 1974.
>
> Unionists are still deeply mistrustful of Sinn Féin and Mr
> Trimble needs more time, or better arguments, to persuade them
> that decommissioning will happen. The Ulster Unionist leader may
> play a cautious hand this week but he knows we have passed a
> point of no return.
>
> The gamble for peace may take a little longer than planned but it
> will succeed.
>From Reuters (via Excite)
> ANALYSIS-Blair magic loses its touch in N.IrelandUpdated 7:00 PM
> ET July 14, 1999By John Morrison
>
> LONDON, July 15 (Reuters) - For a political magician of the
> calibre of British Prime Minister Tony Blair, it was as if the
> magic wand, the spells and wizardry had suddenly ceased to work.
>
> All that was missing was to be booed off stage.
>
> Frustrated and disappointed, according to his office, Blair
> suffered an unprecedented rebuff on Wednesday when the Ulster
> Unionist Party took only 15 minutes to reject his plans to end
> the impasse in Northern Ireland.
>
> While Blair is likely to do his best to salvage what he can from
> the crisis, his failed gamble this week in trying to bounce both
> sides into a deal is bound to raise questions about his judgment,
> which is usually hard to fault.
>
> After months of stalemate -- during which he and the Irish
> government tried to nudge the Protestant Ulster Unionists and the
> Catholic Sinn Fein into finding their own compromise -- it was
> Blair's own decision to opt for strong arm tactics.
>
> First he proclaimed an arbitrary deadline at the end of June,
> then spent a whole week in Belfast with his Irish counterpart
> Bertie Ahern locked in ultimately unsuccessful talks with the two
> sides.
>
> Breaking with past tactics, Blair and Ahern published their own
> blueprint entitled "The Way Forward" which would have meant
> Unionists welcoming Sinn Fein into government before its Irish
> Republican Army (IRA) allies gave up any weapons.
>
> Hailing the plan as the only chance for peace in a generation,
> Blair appears to have misjudged the Unionists' readiness to
> believe his claims about a "seismic shift" in IRA policy over
> arms.
>
> Ulster Unionist leader David Trimble dismissed this as wishful
> thinking and Sinn Fein did nothing to back up Blair's idea. The
> IRA, maintaining its long silence on the subject of disarming,
> did nothing to make Blair's claim look more credible.
>
> Many in Northern Ireland felt Blair also miscalculated by picking
> the most difficult two weeks of the year -- Northern Ireland's
> early July "marching season" -- to seek a deal.
>
> Continuing his high-wire strategy, Blair decided to rush a bill
> through parliament within three days.
>
> But the fast-track approach misfired.
>
> Instead of putting Trimble's party under pressure, it was Blair
> who ended up racing against the clock, seeking frantically on
> Wednesday to draft fresh concessions to the Unionists.
>
> By refusing even to put the concessions to his 110-member party
> executive, Trimble called the prime minister's bluff.
>
> By early Wednesday evening, Blair was already seeking to prepare
> the ground for the expected rejection by calling on the Unionists
> not to close the door on the deal forever.
>
> The problem for Blair is that his greatest triumph, last year's
> Good Friday peace accord, was only achieved by burying several
> key issues of disagreement in layers of political fudge.
>
> This was true above all for guerrilla disarmament, which he
> recognised early on was of great importance to the majority
> Protestant community and their Unionist political leaders.
>
> Under heavy pressure from Blair and his ally U.S. President Bill
> Clinton, Trimble reluctantly agreed to a vague formula which
> lacked any clear commitment by the IRA to give up the weapons it
> used to fight British rule and bound all sides only to do their
> best to achieve disarmament.
>
> Trimble's "yes" to the Good Friday accord divided his own party,
> but assurances from Blair that disarmament should start
> immediately helped produce a clear majority for the deal in
> referendums on both sides of the Irish border in May 1998.
>
> More than a year later, Protestants feel Blair's promises were of
> little value.
>
> As the IRA remained silent and its Sinn Fein political wing
> offered no fresh assurances on a weapons handover, Trimble's
> internal party rivals gained strength.
>
> Meanwhile, the fudge of the Good Friday accord proved ever
> stickier for Blair, leaving him less and less room for manoeuvre
> to satisfy both sides. On Wednesday, his legendary powers of
> persuasion failed.
>
> Blair's instinct for compromise is based on a deep, almost
> religious belief that no political dispute is irreconcilable if
> enough effort is put into bringing opposite sides together.
>
> "I am an eternal optimist," he said this month, refusing to admit
> the possibility of failure in Northern Ireland.
>
> Despite saying he had no "Plan B" up his sleeve, analysts believe
> Blair will seek to limit the damage and try again in the autumn
> to bring the two sides together.
>
> Above all he will try to keep intact his political understanding
> with the Irish government. At home in Britain, public opinion is
> unlikely to be too unkind.
>
> But the risk he runs is that this month's botched attempt at
> forcing a deal will leave both sides in Northern Ireland even
> more mistrustful than before.
A<>E<>R
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