-Caveat Lector-

http://www.counterpunch.org/

Dec. 6, 2001

Sharon or Arafat: Which Is the Sponsor of Terror?
By Alexander Cockburn

"Arafat is guilty of everything here." Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon
declared on television Monday night. "Arafat has made his strategic choices:
a strategy of terrorism." In sync with these fierce words, Israeli forces
launched attacks close to the Palestinian leader's house and destroyed his
helicopters, an onslaught that the US government conspicuously failed to
condemn.

So, in the wake of the last suicide bomb attacks launched by Hamas, the sky
is now the limit for Israeli reprisals: the killing of Arafat, and, not so
far down the road, perhaps forced expulsion of tens of thousands of
Palestinians from the West Bank. In other words, the substitution of
untrammeled military repression by Israel's forces, and a deaf ear by the US
to all Palestinian calls for fair dealing. Write FINIS to all efforts across
the past 35 years to secure a just settlement in Israel and some measure of
satisfaction for Palestinian aspirations.

But to be honest about it, is not that exactly what militant Israelis like
Ariel Sharon have wanted all along? Can anyone claim with a straight face
that Sharon and those like him actually want a just peace that would see an
end to Israeli settlements on the West Bank, the rise of a Palestinian state
in any guise other than pathetic little Bantustans ringed by Israel's
security forces?

There are those in Israel who outlined clearly a couple of weeks ago Sharon's
plan to force matters exactly along the lines they have now taken.

Alex Fishman is the main commentator on security matters for Israel's largest
mass circulation paper, Yediot Achronot, a publication with right-of-center
politics. Fishman is known for his excellent contacts in the military. On
Sunday, November 25, Fishman issued a prediction based on the recent
assasination on November 23 by Israel's security services of the Hamas
leader, Mahmud Abu Hunud. It was featured in a box on the newspaper's front
page.

It began, "We again find ourselves preparing with dread for a new mass
terrorist attack within the Green Line [Israel's pre-'67 border]." Since
Fishman was entirely accurate in this regard, we should mark closely what he
wrote next. "Whoever gave a green light to this act of liquidation knew full
well that he is thereby shattering in one blow the gentleman's agreement
between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority; under that agreement, Hamas was
to avoid in the near future suicide bombings inside the Green Line, of the
kind perpetrated at the Dolphinarium [discotheque in Tel-Aviv]."

Fishman stated flatly that such an agreement did exist, even if neither the
Palestinian Authority nor Hamas would admit to it in public. "It is a fact,"
he continued, " that, while the security services did accumulate repeated
warnings of planned Hamas terrorist attacks within the Green Line, these did
not materialize. That cannot be attributed solely to the Shabak's impressive
success in intercepting the suicide bombers and their controllers. Rather,
the respective leaderships of the Palestinian Authority and Hamas came to the
understanding that it would be better not to play into Israel's hands by mass
attacks on its population centres."

In other words Arafat had managed to convince Hamas to curb its suicide
bombers. This understanding was shattered by the assassination of Abu Hunud.
"Whoever decided upon the liquidation of Abu Hunud," Fishman continued, "
knew in advance that that would be the price. The subject was extensively
discussed both by Israel's military echelon and its political one, before it
was decided to carry out the liquidation. Now, the security bodies assume
that Hamas will embark on a concerted effort to carry out suicide bombings,
and preparations are made accordingly."

Ever since September 11 Israel's leaders followed with deep trepidation the
building of the coalition against the Taliban and Al Qaeda. The months of
studious indifference displayed by the Bush administration towards the Middle
East's crises suddenly gave way to President Bush's abrupt, post September 11
statement that he had always nourished the dream of a Palestinian state.

Consequently the prime task of the Israeli government and of its suppporters
here has been to turn back any serious pressure for accomodation with even
the most modest of Palestinian demands. In parallel the faction mustered
around deputy defense secretary Paul Wolfowitz and Defense Policy Board
chairman Richard Perle has been to push for the US to reopen direct
hostilities with Iraq and settle accounts with Saddam Hussein, once and for
all.

The Wolfowitz-Perle group knows perfectly well that any serious new
confrontation with Saddam Hussein would probably be a prolonged and bloody
affair. There is no Northern Alliance ready and eager for US intervention in
Iraq. The Shia in the south remember well what happened in 1991 when they
rose against Saddam and the US stood by while Saddam methodically slaughtered
them. The Kurds know that a post Saddam regime might move against them, with
similar US indifference. If the US acted as supervisor and guarantor for an
invasion by Ahmed Chalabi and his Iraqi National Congress, the military and
diplomatic consequences would be both bloody and far-reaching.

It's clear that the Wolfowitz-Perle group is equable in the face of such
uncertainties, since whatever the ghastly consequences for ordinary people in
Iraq the one outcome that would be certain is that Israel would be
resoundingly confirmed in its status as the United States' prime ally and
client in the region, even as the post-September 11 coalition with Islamic
countries falls apart. Small wonder they rapturously echo Sharon's
denunciations of Arafat as a man of terror even though they, being smart
people, probably don't need Alex Fishman to explain how the real game is
actually being played.

These are the stakes. They're far larger than the present tragi-comic efforts
to assemble a coalition to run Afghanistan, and there isn't much sign thus
far that President Bush understands that comic-book advisories such as
"You're for us or against us" do not, in this situation, really apply.

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