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State Dept. Changes Seen if Bush Reelected
By Glenn Kessler Secretary of State Colin L. Powell and his deputy, Richard L. Armitage, have
signaled to the White House that they intend to step down even if President Bush
is reelected, setting the stage for a substantial reshaping of the
administration's national security team that has remained unchanged through the
September 2001 terrorist attacks, two wars and numerous other crises. Armitage recently told national security adviser Condoleezza Rice that he and
Powell will leave on Jan. 21, 2005, the day after the next presidential
inauguration, sources familiar with the conversation said. Powell has indicated
to associates that a commitment made to his wife, rather than any dismay at the
administration's foreign policy, is a key factor in his desire to limit his
tenure to one presidential term. Rice and Deputy Defense Secretary Paul D. Wolfowitz are the leading
candidates to replace Powell, according to sources inside and outside the
administration. Rice appears to have an edge because of her closeness to the
president, though it is unclear whether she would be interested in running the
State Department's vast bureaucracy. With 18 months left in Bush's current term, many officials said talk of a new
foreign policy team is highly premature -- particularly because Bush's
reelection is not assured. No one inside or outside the administration agreed to
be quoted by name or affiliation in discussing possible Cabinet choices. But on
the eve of the country's first post-Sept. 11, 2001, presidential campaign, in
which foreign affairs will play a prominent role, the national security lineup
for a second Bush term is already a major topic of conversation, at least among
those who make and analyze U.S. foreign policy. Indeed, Director of Central Intelligence George J. Tenet is already the third
longest serving CIA chief and is expected to depart, perhaps before the current
term ends. Tenet's role in the Iraq weapons controversy has led to calls on
Capitol Hill for his dismissal, fueling speculation he will quit soon. The current administration has been characterized by fierce policy disputes,
often between Powell and more hawkish members, and a reshuffling likely would
significantly change the tenor and character of the foreign policy team. Although Bush appears to value the range of opinions he has received from his
chief national security advisers, he may feel free if he wins a second term to
realign his foreign policy more closely to the harder-edged, conservative view
exemplified by Vice President Cheney and Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld,
according to Zbigniew Brzezinski, President Jimmy Carter's national security
adviser. Powell has staffed key positions in the State Department with close
associates, and many of those officials also are expected to leave at the
beginning of a second Bush term, giving the new secretary of state the
opportunity to substantially re-staff the department. Some observers have speculated that Powell, who made an extensive
presentation before the United Nations in February on Iraq's weapons of mass
destruction before the war, has been embarrassed by the failure to find much
evidence of chemical, biological or nuclear weapons programs. But Powell, both
publicly and privately, has said he has no regrets about his comments to the
Security Council, arguing that they hold up well if read carefully. Powell has declined to answer questions about his plans. "I serve at the
pleasure of the president," he said last month. "That's the only answer I've
ever given to that question, no matter what form it comes in." Bush recently named Rice as his personal representative on the Middle East
conflict, a move that some State Department officials view as an audition for
secretary of state. Republican political operatives have also touted Rice as a
possible candidate in the 2006 race for California governor. But Rice's image has been tarnished by the fallout over the administration's
use of intelligence about Iraq's weapons, raising questions about her scrutiny
of the materials and the veracity of her public statements. Rice "is an honest, fabulous person, and America is lucky to have her
service, period," Bush said at a news conference before departing for his August
vacation. Wolfowitz, the administration's foreign policy intellectual and prime
advocate of a confrontation with Iraq, would be a more daring and controversial
choice. A senior Senate Democrat said Wolfowitz would have little trouble
winning confirmation in a Republican-controlled Senate. But others said that
because Wolfowitz is considered more of a strategic thinker than a manager, he
could be tapped as Rice's replacement as national security adviser if she became
secretary of state or entered politics. Long-shot candidates for secretary would include Sen. Richard G. Lugar
(R-Ind.), the centrist chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee who is a
strong supporter of Powell. Lugar is so respected by Democrats that his name was
also floated during the Clinton administration. Another dark horse is former House speaker Newt Gingrich. The Georgia
Republican appears to be openly campaigning for the job, arguing in speeches and
in a recent Foreign Policy magazine article that the State Department under
Powell has failed to adequately support Bush's policies. Among other key members of the foreign policy team, Rumsfeld is deeply
involved in modernizing the military, as well as in the Pentagon's ongoing
operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, and appears willing to stay on beyond the
start of a second term, officials said. If Rice became secretary of state, that would open up another key slot --
national security adviser. Although Wolfowitz is considered a strong
possibility, Rice's deputy, Stephen J. Hadley, could move up, much as Samuel R.
"Sandy" Berger did when President Bill Clinton won a second term. Officials also said another strong candidate is I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby,
Cheney's chief of staff and already a principal foreign policy adviser inside
the White House. A dark-horse candidate for national security adviser is Steve Biegun, chief
foreign affairs aide to Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.), who is said
to have impressed Bush when he served as executive secretary of the National
Security Council early on in the administration. There appear to be few obvious choices for a new CIA director. Armitage,
known as a sharp manager willing to tackle tough projects, is viewed by some
officials as the ideal replacement for Tenet. But Armitage has insisted to
others that he will leave the administration on the same day as Powell, one of
his closest friends. Rep. Porter J. Goss (R-Fla.), chairman of the House Permanent Select
Committee on Intelligence and a former CIA case officer, is considered a strong
possibility, as is Wolfowitz if he is not tapped for secretary of state or
national security adviser. Two mid-level administration officials who could move up are Stephen A.
Cambone, undersecretary of defense for intelligence, and Richard L. Haver,
assistant to Rumsfeld on intelligence (and to Cheney when he was defense
secretary in the administration of President George H.W. Bush). Air Force Lt. Gen. Michael V. Hayden, head of the National Security Agency,
and retired Adm. William O. Studeman, a former NSA director and former CIA
deputy director, are regarded as highly qualified for the job. Two retired senators who served on the Senate Select Committee on
Intelligence -- Warren B. Rudman (R-N.H.) and Fred D. Thompson (R-Tenn.) -- are
considered long-shot candidates for CIA director. But Thompson, a sometime actor
who now appears in the television series "Law and Order," has one unusual
attribute: He already played the CIA director in the 1987 Kevin Costner movie
"No Way Out."
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