http://www.sciam.com/2000/0900issue/0900scicit4.html

Awash in Oil

                          There's plenty of cheap oil, says the U.S.
Geological Survey

      The debate over this summer's skyrocketing gasoline prices-an issue
that has drawn the ire of both U.S. presidential candidates, Congress and
the Federal Trade Commission-obscures what may be a larger truth: there's
gobs of oil out there.

      In June, after a five-year study, the U.S. Geological Survey raised
its previous estimate of the world's crude oil reserves by 20 percent, to a
total of 649 billion barrels. The USGS team believes the largest reserves of
undiscovered oil lie in existing fields in the Middle East, the northeast
Greenland Shelf, the western Siberian and Caspian areas, and the Niger and
Congo delta areas of Africa. Significant new reserves were found in
northeast Greenland and offshore Suriname, both of which have no history of
production. "What we did is look into the future and predict how much will
be discovered in the next 30 years based on the geology of how it gets
trapped," explains Suzanne D. Weedman, program coordinator of the USGS World
Petroleum Assessment 2000. "We also believe that the [oil] reserve numbers
are going to increase."

      Besides relying on geological surveys, the USGS also based its numbers
on changes in drilling technology that are making it easier to find new
supplies and to squeeze more oil out of existing fields. Petroleum companies
are flushing out oil with pressurized water and carbon dioxide and using
improved robot technology to construct offshore drilling rigs in up to 3,500
feet of water. They are also conducting three-dimensional seismic imaging of
underground and underwater fields.

      The idea of an expanding "reserve growth" of undiscovered oil isn't
shared by everyone. Colin J. Campbell, an oil industry analyst based in
Ireland, believes the USGS estimates are overly optimistic. "It's only the
low end of this scale that has any practical meaning; the other end of the
scale is a very bad estimate," argues Campbell, who warned of an impending
crunch, based on projections of current production and reserves, in an
article in Scientific American ["The End of Cheap Oil," March 1998]. Weedman
says the USGS report is documented with 32,000 pages of data. "We've looked
at all the information," she states, "and tried to predict on the basis of
science and not on past [oil] production."


      --Eric Niiler

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