-Caveat Lector-

~~for educational purposes only~~
[Title 17 U.S.C. section 107]

Unheeded Advice on Saddam
by Ralph R. Reiland

"How many additional American lives is Saddam
Hussein worth? The answer I would give is not very
damn many."

That was the answer from Dick Cheney during a May
1992 briefing, explaining why the first President Bush
was right when he decided not to push forward to
Baghdad to get rid of Saddam after American forces
had trounced the Iraqi army in Kuwait in March 1991.

At the time of that briefing, Cheney was secretary of
defense, fresh from his task of directing Operation
Desert Storm.

In his 1998 memoir, A World Transformed"
co-authored with Brent Scowcroft, his former national
security adviser, the senior Bush explained why he
didn't send American troops to "march into Baghdad"
to bring down Saddam at the end of the Gulf War:

   "To occupy Iraq would instantly shatter
   our coalition, turning the whole Arab
   world against us, and make a broken
   tyrant into a latter-day Arab hero. It
   would have taken us way beyond the
   imprimatur of international law bestowed
   by the resolutions of the Security Council,
   assigning young soldiers to a fruitless
   hunt for a securely entrenched dictator
   and condemning them to fight in what
   would be an unwinnable urban guerrilla
   war. It could only plunge that part of the
   world into even greater instability and
   destroy the credibility we were working so
   hard to re-establish."

On top of being "unwinnable," Bush warned that the
costs of an occupation of Iraq would be
"incalculable," with meager benefits:

   "Trying to eliminate Saddam, extending
   the ground war into an occupation of
   Iraq, would have violated our guideline
   about not changing objectives in
   midstream, engaging in 'mission creep,'
   and would have incurred incalculable
   human and political costs. Apprehending
   him was probably impossible. We had
   been unable to find Noriega in Panama,
   which we knew intimately. We would have
   been forced to occupy Baghdad and, in
   effect, rule Iraq. The coalition would
   instantly have collapsed, the Arabs
   deserting it in anger, and other allies
   pulling out as well. Under those
   circumstances, there was no viable 'exit
   strategy' we could see, violating another
   of our principles. Furthermore, we had
   been self-consciously trying to set a
   pattern for handling aggression in the
   post-Cold War world. Going in and
   occupying Iraq, thus unilaterally
   exceeding the United Nations' mandate,
   would have destroyed the precedent of
   international response to aggression that
   we hoped to establish. Had we gone the
   invasion route, the United States could
   conceivably still be an occupying power
   in a bitterly hostile land."

That was 1998, and not everyone agreed. A group of
Washington heavyweights, including Donald
Rumsfeld, Paul Wolfowitz, Bill Kristol and Dick
Cheney, formed The Project for the New American
Century in spring 1997, with an early focus on ousting
Saddam Hussein  by force, if necessary.

On Jan. 26, 1998, the group wrote to President Bill
Clinton, urging him to adopt a strategy that would
"aim, above all, at the removal of Saddam Hussein's
regime from power." Arguing that we didn't have the
"ability to ensure that Saddam Hussein is not
producing weapons of mass destruction," they asked
Clinton to adopt "a willingness to undertake military
action, as diplomacy is clearly failing."

Writing to Rep. Newt Gingrich and Sen. Trent Lott in
May 1998, the group argued that the United States
should be prepared to use military force "to protect
our vital interests in the Gulf  and, if necessary, to
help remove Saddam from power."

All that war hype, of course, was years before Sept.
11, years before Dick Cheney claimed that Iraq was
"the geographic base of the terrorists who have had
us under assault for many years," long before
Condoleezza Rice was seeing mushroom clouds over
Chicago.

On Sept. 11, according to a report from National
Security correspondent David Martin at CBS, it took
barely five hours after American Airlines Flight 77 hit
the Pentagon for Defense Secretary Rumsfeld to tell
his aides to come up with plans for striking Iraq
even though there was no evidence connecting
Saddam to the attack.

Notes taken by the Pentagon aides, at 2:40 p.m. on
Sept. 11, quote Rumsfeld as saying he wanted "best
info fast. Judge whether good enough hit S.H,"
meaning Saddam Hussein. "Go massive," the notes
quote Rumsfeld as saying. "Sweep it all up. Things
related and not."

And so, as they say, the rest is history, produced and
directed by the guys in the White House from the
Project for the New American Century, with no
reports of the son getting any briefings about what his
father had warned against.

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