-Caveat Lector-

I remember when there was all that buzz about "Millenium Challenge
2002", here's a link for their original page laying out the goals and
plans (to a point) of the operation, from the Joint Forces Command:
http://www.jfcom.mil/about/experiments/mc02.htm

When news began trickling out about how they skewered their own game
(read: cheated) in order to have a "win", I laughed.  Unfortunately I'm
not laughing now, for the poor folks in the current battle of their
lives were given a flawed gameplan to start with, because somebody
couldn't be "wrong".

How could they do something like this???  This wasn't a college exam
they were fudging - lives were depending on it.  To me this shows a
total and utter contempt for their own military, that they would even
skewer the results of a game because winning was everything, at all
costs (even human lives).  Even when they were wrong, they HAD to be
right!  What incredible arrogance!

Three articles below, including the Guardian report from August 2002 on
the results of the "game".

goldi


Editor's Note: If top fighting generals are making statements like this
with troops still in the field, the level of frustration among those
tasked to fight this war must be enormous. The game plan espoused by
Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz and Perle has left our troops exposed, underfed,
lacking fuel and open to attacks from the flank. Nasiriya and Basra
remain untaken, with Baghdad looming ominously in the distance. Many of
our soldiers are dead or wounded. General Wallace has every right to be
angry. - wrp

Outspoken Army General Upsets White House
By The Associated Press

Friday 28 March 2003

WASHINGTON -- His war plan may not have panned out in Iraq quite as
neatly as Lt. Gen. William S. Wallace had hoped.

"The plan is to be decisive, rapid, lethal and to give our adversary no
edge he can take advantage of,'' Wallace, commander of the ground battle
in Iraq, was quoted as saying earlier this month.

After a week of war, Wallace upset the White House Thursday by saying
publicly that Pentagon strategists had misunderstood the combativeness
of Iraqi fighters. The miscalculation, he said, had stalled the
coalition's drive toward Baghdad.

"The enemy we're fighting against is different from the one we'd
war-gamed against,'' Wallace, commander of V Corps, told The New York
Times and The Washington Post. "We knew they were here, but we did not
know how they would fight.''

Wallace's comments fed into the frustration the Bush administration
already was expressing over media coverage of the pace of the war
effort. The war, the White House says daily, is going well and at a good
speed.

White House press secretary Ari Fleischer on Friday would not say
whether he agreed with Wallace.

"The strength of the plan is at the ability to adapt to the realities of
the circumstances while still focused on what it is we seek to do,''
Fleischer said at his daily briefing.

At a briefing at U.S. Central Command in Qatar, Brig. Gen. Vincent
Brooks said uncertainty is part of battle.

"No one can ever predict how a battle will unfold,'' Brooks said. ``We
remain confident that we have a good grip on what's going on here and
we're proceeding.''

Tough talk isn't new for Wallace, 55, who was promoted to commanding
general of V Corps in June 2001.

Chafing at the wait for action to begin earlier this year, Wallace
growled to a reporter that he was sick of having to deal with missile
warnings of Iraqi incoming "lawn darts'' without striking back. Saddam
Hussein, he said in less polite terms, was ticking him off.

Wallace also said he found the responsibility humbling.

He had worked for it all his career. Wallace, who goes by his middle
name, Scott, graduated from West Point in 1969 and then the U.S. Army
Command and General Staff College and the Naval War College before
earning postgraduate degrees in operations analysis and international
relations.

A Vietnam veteran, Wallace progressed from soldier to student to trainer
and commander. By June 1999, he was serving as commander of the Joint
Warfighting Center and director of joint training at the U.S. Joint
Forces Command in Norfolk, Va.

(In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is
distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest
in receiving the included information for research and educational
purposes.)

© Copyright 2003 by TruthOut.org

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/national/AP-War-Lt-Gen-Wallace.html
http://truthout.org/docs_03/033003B.shtml

***

War game was fixed to ensure American victory, claims general

Julian Borger in Washington
Wednesday August 21, 2002
The Guardian

The biggest war game in US military history, staged this month at a cost
of £165m with 13,000 troops, was rigged to ensure that the Americans
beat their "Middle Eastern" adversaries, according to one of the main
participants.

General Paul Van Riper, a retired marine lieutenant-general, told the
Army Times that the sprawling three-week millennium challenge exercises,
were "almost entirely scripted to ensure a [US] win".

He protested by quitting his role as commander of enemy forces, and
warning that the Pentagon might wrongly conclude that its experimental
tactics were working.

When Gen Van Riper agreed to command the forces of an unnamed Middle
Eastern state - which bore a strong re semblance to Iraq, but could have
been Iran - he thought he would be given a free rein to probe US
weaknesses. But when the game began, he was told to deploy his forces to
make life easier for US forces.

"We were directed... to move air defences so that the army and marine
units could successfully land," he said. "We were simply directed to
turn [air defence systems] off or move them... So it was scripted to be
whatever the control group wanted it to be."

The Army Times reported that, as commander of a low-tech, third-world
army, Gen Van Riper appeared to have repeatedly outwitted US forces.

He sent orders with motorcycle couriers to evade sophisticated
electronic eavesdropping equipment. When the US fleet sailed into the
Gulf, he instructed his small boats and planes to move around in
apparently aimless circles before launching a surprise attack which sank
a substantial part of the US navy. The war game had to be stopped and
the American ships "refloated" so that the US forces stood a chance.

"Instead of a free-play, two-sided game as the joint forces commander
advertised it was going to be, it simply became a scripted exercise.
They had a predetermined end, and they scripted the exercise to that
end," Gen Van Riper said. He said he quit when he found out his orders
were being over ruled by the military coordinators of the game.

Vice-Admiral Marty Mayer, one of the coordinators, denied claims of
fixing. "I want to disabuse anybody of any notion that somehow the books
were cooked," he said.

The games were designed to test experimental new tactics and doctrines
advocated by the defence secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, and were referred
to in Pentagon-speak as "military transformation".

The transformation is aimed at making US forces more mobile and daring,
but Gen Van Riper said that the "concepts" the game were supposed to
test, with names such as "effects-based operations" and "rapid, decisive
operations", were little more than "slogans", which had not been
properly put to the test by the exercise.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/usa/story/0,12271,778139,00.html

***

War games vs. war reality

BY FRED KAPLAN, SLATE.COM

Much has been made of Thursday's remark by Lt. Gen. William Wallace,
commander of U.S. Army forces in the Persian Gulf. Talking about the
fierce and guerrilla-style resistance of Iraqi militia groups, Wallace
said, "The enemy we're fighting is a bit different than the one we
war-gamed against."

IN FACT, however, militia fighters did play a crucial role in a major
war game designed to simulate combat in Iraq -- but the Pentagon
officials who managed the game simply disregarded or overruled the
militias' most devastating moves.

The war game, which was called Millennium Challenge 02, took place over
three weeks last July and August. Planned over a two-year period, at a
cost of $250 million, the game involved 13,500 personnel from all four
services -- Army, Navy, Air Force, Marines -- who waged mock war in 17
simulation locations and nine live-force training sites. The scenario
envisioned a war in a fictitiously named Persian Gulf country that
resembled Iraq.

RED VS. BLUE

The objective was to test (and, if all went well, to validate) a set of
new combat theories based less on massive force and more on speed,
agility, highly accurate weapons, and supremely coordinated command and
control. These theories -- known as "military transformation" and
"effects-based operations" -- would serve as the underlying strategy of
the real war against the real Iraq that's happening now.

Officially, the war game was a great success; the theories were proven
sound. However, on Aug. 12, as the game was winding to a close, a
retired three-star U.S. Marine Corps general named Paul Van Riper wrote
an e-mail to some of his friends, casting grave doubt on this
conclusion.

Pentagon war games pit "Red Force" (simulating the enemy) against "Blue
Force" (the United States). In this war game, as in many war games over
the years, Van Riper played the Red Force commander. In his e-mail
(which was promptly leaked to the Army Times then picked up, though in
much less detail, by the Guardian and the Washington Post), Van Riper
complained about Millennium Challenge 02, writing that, "Instead of a
free-play, two-sided game … it simply became a scripted exercise." The
conduct of the game did not allow "for the concepts of rapid decisive
operations, effects-based operations, or operational net assessment to
be properly assessed. … It was in actuality an exercise that was almost
entirely scripted to ensure a Blue 'win.' "

For instance -- and here is where he displayed prescience -- Van Riper
used motorcycle messengers to transmit orders to Red troops, thereby
eluding Blue's super-sophisticated eavesdropping technology. He
maneuvered Red forces constantly. At one point in the game, when Blue's
fleet entered the Persian Gulf, he sank some of the ships with
suicide-bombers in speed boats. (At that point, the managers stopped the
game, "refloated" the Blue fleet, and resumed play.) Robert Oakley, a
retired U.S. ambassador who played the Red civilian leader, told the
Army Times that Van Riper was "out-thinking" Blue Force from the first
day of the exercise.

PLAYING BY THE RULES?

Yet, Van Riper said in his e-mail, the game's managers remanded some of
his moves as improper and simply blocked others from being carried out.
According to the Army Times summary, "Exercise officials denied him the
opportunity to use his own tactics and ideas against Blue, and on
several occasions directed [Red Force] not to use certain weapons
systems against Blue. It even ordered him to reveal the location of Red
units."

Finally, Van Riper quit the game in protest, so as not to be associated
with what would be misleading results. As he explained in his e-mail,
"You don't come to a conclusion beforehand and then work your way to
that conclusion. You see how the thing plays out." He added, somewhat
ominously in retrospect, "My main concern was we'd see future forces
trying to use these things when they've never been properly grounded in
any sort of an experiment."

The Army Times quoted some game managers who disputed Van Riper's
version of events. However, it also quoted a retired colonel who was
familiar with the game and supportive of the theories being tested. "I
don't have a problem with the ideas," the colonel said. "I do have a
problem with the fact that we're trying to suggest somehow that we've
validated them, and now it's time to pay for them."

WAR WITHOUT SCRIPT

Finally, the paper quoted a retired Army officer who has played in
several war games with Van Riper. "What he's done is, he's made himself
an expert in playing Red, and he's real obnoxious about it," the officer
said. "He will insist on being able to play Red as freely as possible
and as imaginatively and creatively, within the bounds of the framework
of the game and the technology horizons and all that, as possible. He
can be a real pain in the ass, but that's good. … He's a great patriot
and he's doing all those things for the right reasons."

Clearly, the Pentagon needs to encourage obnoxious Red commanders, not
suppress them. Scripted war-game enemies may roll over, but, as we're
seeing, real enemies sometimes think of tricky ways to fight back.

Fred Kaplan writes the ''War Stories" column for Slate.

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