-Caveat Lector-

Global Warming Issues


White House Underestimated Kyoto Costs, Studies Agree  If ratified by the
Senate -- to which it has not yet been submitted -- the Kyoto treaty on
global warming negotiated by the White House in 1997 would commit the U.S.
to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by more than 30 percent, to 7 percent
below their 1990 levels.

The Clinton administration claims the economic benefits of reducing
emissions to 1990 levels by 2010 would roughly equal the costs of the
required energy cuts.

But studies from the GAO, the Energy Information Administration and the
Dallas Federal Reserve Bank determined that the administration significantly
underestimated the costs involved.


The GAO analysis found that Department of Energy studies cited by the White
House had relied on unsubstantiated assumptions concerning the future
competitiveness of solar and wind power.

In addition, the GAO said the department did not consider the full economic
costs of the proposed energy taxes, and it relied on implausible scenarios
concerning the timeline for replacing powerplants and other capital
equipment.

The EIA predicted that the Kyoto demands would increase gasoline prices 52
percent and hike electricity prices 86 percent, decrease gross domestic
product by 4.2 percent, and lead to a 2.5 percent decline in personal
disposable income.

The Dallas Federal Reserve study by Stephen Brown -- released by the
National Center for Policy Analysis -- found the Kyoto accord requires
between two and seven times more carbon dioxide reduction by the U.S. than
is justified even under the most dire global warming predictions.
Moreover, the U.S. would have to reduce energy use by more than 30 percent
below projections for 2010 -- equivalent to the total amount of energy used
for transportation in 1996.

Brown determined that even using only the most economically efficient means,
complying with Kyoto would reduce U.S. GDP by between 3 to 4.3 percent in
2010 -- a loss of $275.2 billion to $394.4 billion.

Source: H. Sterling Burnett (National Center for Policy Analysis),
Investor's Business Daily, June 24, 1999.

For NCPA's Global Warming Hotline go to
http://www.ncpa.org/hotlines/global/gwhot.html



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