-Caveat Lector- from: http://www.zolatimes.com/V2.42/pageone.html <A HREF="http://www.zolatimes.com/V2.42/pageone.html">Laissez Faire City Times - Volume 2 Issue 42</A> The Laissez Faire City Times December 14, 1998 - Volume 2, Issue 42 Editor & Chief: Emile Zola ----- Y2K: What's a Reasonable Person to Do? by Don L. Tiggre Just about everyone has heard of the year 2000 computer problem (also called Y2K, or, the Millennium Bug), but no one really knows what will happen when the clocks tick over to 00:00:01 on January 1, 2000. Uncertainty notwithstanding, there are some useful Y2K considerations that reasonable people should consider. First, they should recognize the uncertainty. There are computer experts--people who have worked in the field for decades--who are certain that nothing major will happen. They say that a few businesses with exceptionally inept management might go under, but the scare stories are unrealistic and irresponsible. There are also computer experts--people who have worked in the field for decades--who are certain that there is simply no way everything that needs fixing will be fixed on time. They claim there are not enough people to do the job, even if the money to pay them could be found. If the experts do not agree, how then should prudent people prepare? Are those who are stockpiling goods being hysterical, or are those who are doing nothing burying their heads in the sand? Uncertainty notwithstanding, much is known about the problem. The very least people should do is to inform themselves. They should know what it means that many computers "think" all years are 19-something. They understand why most businesses and government agencies cannot simply turn their clocks back to "give them more time." They should be aware that the problem is almost upon us; many systems use 99 as a null value and that the fiscal year 2000 will be hitting various organizations throughout 1999. Most importantly, they should know what kinds of systems, especially among those they rely on, might be affected. Even the most skeptical commentators agree that, at the very least, Y2K will be expensive to fix, and some things will not get fixed on time. Utah's Senator Bennett, who chairs a US Senate committee on Y2K, estimates that it will cost $1.4 billion to fix the computers at the Department of Treasury (not including the IRS, which has tried and failed repeatedly to update its computer systems) and $600 billion for all the computers in the world that need fixing. Some estimates for the global figure run as high as $1.635 trillion-that's more than the US government's entire budget last year. Except by obtaining loans, this cost cannot be spread out; the fiscal year 2000 will be upon us in months. So, the very least that can be forecast is a huge drain on the economy worldwide, one that has not been planned for by most businesses and governments. A recession would be a very plausible consequence of a rapid diversion of funds from production and growth to damage control. Among the more concerned commentators-by no means the most alarmist-is Senator Bennett, who believes a recession is all but inevitable. He also fears that 40 percent or more of the nation's power grid will go down in the first moments of the year 2000. The consequences of that in itself are frightening, let alone what could happen to telecommunications and other critical computer-intensive industries. A single set of power lines in eastern Canada was brought down by a powerful ice storm last winter, leaving a million people without electricity during the coldest months of the year. The impact of nearly half of the US (125 million people) being without power in January would be difficult to describe without resorting to fiction--and such a scenario is by no means the most dire one predicted! Another consideration that must not be overlooked is the danger arising from the very attempts to make fixes. In the now-famous "Smith Barney" mix-up, $19,000,000 were accidentally added to 525,000 financial management accounts overnight. This was done while expert programmers were implementing a Y2K fix. The frightening part is that the new software was thoroughly tested off-line first; the people implementing the fix obviously thought it would be safe and never dreamed that a ten trillion dollar error would result. As 1999 gets underway, and the fiscal year 2000 looms closer and closer, we can reasonably expect such mistakes to increase in frequency and magnitude of harm done. It is neither exaggeration nor hysteria to predict that, as computer-controlled heavy and medical equipment malfunction, the harm could even be lethal. So, what does a responsible person do, in addition to informing his or herself? People should think about the possibilities and form contingency plans. This costs very little, and could prove more important than a basement full of supplies. While it won't be useful for people to bankrupt themselves buying emergency equipment, those who have some disposable income would do well to put some of it into commodities a sensible person might want to own anyway, or that can be liquidated at little loss. Gold, guns, and generators are examples of such commodities. People should also look to things they own or count on that might not be Y2K-compliant. A good rule of thumb would be: "If it has a chip in it and has any way of tracking time or knowing what time it is, check with the manufacturer." This does not apply only to items with functions dealing primarily with dates or schedules. For example, Magellan, manufacturer of the Magellan Trailblazer series GPS and Trailblazer XLGPS receivers, has warned customers that their global position units will not work after January 1, 2000. Also, many late model cars contain computer chips and a number of these are known to be non-compliant. Checking with your local dealer, unless it is a pre-80s model, would be a reasonable precaution. And let us not overlook the obvious: check your computer (a handy utility for doing so can be located at: http://www.zdnet.com/vlabs/y2k/testy2k.html)! The fiscal year 2000 will hit different companies and agencies at different times in 1999, providing a spread-out dress rehearsal. People should do what they can to make sure the critical systems of employers, banks, suppliers, customers, and others are Y2K-compliant before then, and watch carefully as 1999 progresses. The public sector--the government--will bear the most careful watching. People in the federal government, in particular, have a track record of withholding the truth when they believe the public is better off in the dark. Pay no attention to official press releases in October 1999, when the federal government goes into fiscal Y2K. Read the Drudge Report instead, or check the local help-wanted ads to see if federal agencies are hiring large numbers of people--to do by hand what the computers have ceased doing. Most importantly of all: be wary of efforts made by various agencies to use Y2K as an excuse to increase their power. Nationwide martial law may be an extreme example, but state and even local governments are known to use moments of panic to enact "emergency" measures that are never repealed. In Senator Bennet's home state of Utah, for example, the sales tax passed as an emergency measure more than sixty years ago is still in place. The Millennium Bug could bring on serious hard times, or it could prove to be the next War of the Worlds scare: a tempest in a teapot. Whichever scenario turns out to be nearer the truth, reasonable people should educate themselves and be on their guard as the year 2000 approaches. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Don L. Tiggre is the author of Y2K: The Millennium Bug, a suspenseful thriller. Ed Yourdon, author of Time Bomb 2000 says: "[A] superb job of conveying the impact of Y2K to the average non-technical reader." Bob Boardman, author of Savior of Fire says: "I was up all night, tossing and turning, trying to think of the right words to tell you how great I think your book is." ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Related Links: •What is Time?, by Dagny Deb •The Year 2000 Problem in Perspective, by J. Orlin Grabbe •IRS 2000, by Zola •Don Lobo Tiggre on the Coming Social Changes, an interview by Alberto Mingardi -30- from The Laissez Faire City Times, Vol 2, No 42, Dec. 14, 1998 ----- The Laissez Faire City Times is a private newspaper. 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