-Caveat Lector- http://www.iht.com/articles/91541.html
Copyright © 2002 The International Herald Tribune | www.iht.com A top U.S. intelligence officer admits army miscalculations Bernard Weinraub The New York Times Monday, March 31, 2003 5TH CORPS HEADQUARTERS, near the Kuwait border It has been a tough week for Colonel Steven Boltz. "I did not anticipate that Saddam would send the paramilitaries all the way from Baghdad to southern Iraq," said Boltz, the intelligence officer for the 5th Corps, the U.S. Army force in Kuwait and Iraq. "What we didn't anticipate was his ability to move so quickly." Seated outdoors the other evening under a darkening desert sky near the tent he shares with other officers, Boltz spoke slowly and quietly. He works daily from 6 a.m. to after midnight in the 5th Corps Tactical Operations Center, which is sealed off by barbed wire and armed soldiers. Within the center is the even more secretive intelligence center, protected by another guard, and crammed with computers, secret telephone lines and satellite equipment. Boltz, whose broad build is the result of years of lifting weights, is a brooding, almost dark figure as he prowls the operations Center. He rarely leaves. He doesn't even bother to go to the mess hall for breakfast and dinner, asking a colleague to bring food back for him. Compared with his colleagues, his background is aytipical. His father is a retired army sergeant, who told him that if he wanted to make the military a career, he should become an officer because they made more money. His mother is Japanese. His wife is Mexican-American. Their two teenage sons (the older is at West Point) are like Heinz 57, Boltz said. In an enviroment where even older soldiers behave like teenagers, where a hint of vulnerability is suspect, Boltz is highly unusual. He rarely smiles. In fact, his mouth seems set in a permanent frown. His colleagues said that his moods were unpredictable. At times, as Boltz walks through the center's rooms, he seems so deep in thought that soldiers clear a path for him and do not dare interrupt. Sitting at a large table in the center, facing three panels of computerized maps of the battlefield and satellite data, Boltz is usally huddled with his bosses, Brigadier General Daniel Hahn, the 5th Corps chief of staff, or the 5th Corps commander, Lieutenant General William Wallace, who spends his time now in a forward position. Wallace stirred a controversy last week when he bluntly told reporters what officers in the field were saying privately: that a longer war was likely because the military had not anticipated the kind of war being fought by para-military forces. Wallace also said that overextended supply lines were stalling the war effort. It is widely believed here that the comments angered Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. Wallace's comments, which also mirror the views of Boltz, are a reversal. Less than two weeks ago, Boltz, like his superiors at the Pentagon, told a reporter that he believed that Iraqis would welcome American troops in crushing Saddam Hussein's regime. He believed that the war would intensify as the Americasn and British surged toward Baghdad and not get bogged down in southern cities like An Nasiriyah and Basra. And Boltz believed that Iraqi forces would surrender in large numbers in the American sweep from the south. But Boltz, even at his most optimistic, voiced apprehesions. Two weeks ago, in a first interview, he said Saddam was as unpredictable and cunning as he was ruthless. Then, as now, Boltz said Saddam seemed to be a remarkable survivor, who was convinced that he would defeat the Allies by grinding them down on the battlefield and gaining the upper hand in the international propoganda war. "What makes me optimistic is what he's doing now shows the desperation of the regime," said Boltz, alluding to intelligence reports about Iraqi suicide bombers, human shields and brutal violence against civilians who refuse to join the paramilitaries. "The regime is on the edge of collapse. He's doing this as a last- ditch effort." Boltz now acknowledges that there were miscalculations, including the resisilence and strength of Iraqi paramilitary units almost fanatically loyal to Saddam. "We thought the majority of their technical vehicles - pickup trucks with heavy machine guns and air defense weapons - would stay in Baghdad, but Saddam has used them to come down south," Boltz said. Nor was it expected that Iraqi paramilitary units like the Ba'ath Party militia would, among other tactics, resort to suicide missions like car bombs and standing in front of American tanks and opening fire. The tactics are especially ominous as the U.S. prepares to move into Baghdad. "The population is very scared," said Colonel Boltz, responding to a question on why Iraqis in the south had not embraced the U.S. Army, as officers expected. "They've been brutally suppressed for 20 years. They're still being suppressed. We have word that he's executed Shiite sheikhs, who refused to fight us.We have word of families being shot because the men don't want to join the fight. We have word that he's put a bounty on every American's head." Boltz added: "Who we're fighting are killers and murderers, not soldiers. "These are the ones who have the most to lose. These are the ones who have been provided with cars, extra pay, luxuries not normally afforded to Iraqi citizens. These are the ones who have been Saddam's instrument of power." Boltz said he believed Saddam would order the use of chemical warfare against American troops. "When his army has folded, and we are in Baghdad, he will try," Boltz said. "He'll use it as a last resort." Boltz said the United States would prevail even if there had been across- the-board mistakes in intelligence by the Central Intelligence Agency, the Defense Department and the 5th Corps. "We'll prevail," Boltz said, as dusk turned into evening and the camp turned dark. "It will work out. I know it will work out. It wlll just take longer than we thought." Copyright © 2002 The International Herald Tribune Forwarded for your information. The text and intent of the article have to stand on their own merits. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. section 107, this material is distributed without charge or profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving this type of information for non-profit research and educational purposes only. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ "Do not believe in anything simply because you have heard it. Do not believe simply because it has been handed down for many genera- tions. 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