Title: Morning Briefing, 12/10/2002
TUESDAY a.m.
December 10, 2002
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g reflects the fact that the long-term gauge has rolled over into the downtrend more recently (as of Friday's close). The long-term gauge's move into the downtrend cycle is not yet as clear or definitive.
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rther downside for the market. Our CDI dropped to Zero (0) for the uptrend, further supporting the notion that the arrow will flip into downtrend beginning next week.
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an uptrend, with this confidence reading unchanged.
The sentiment tank has filled up another 2% to 58%, as bearish sentiment is on the rise.
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he speculative variety.
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l bullish positions in the Rydex Funds at some point over the next few sessions. I will send out an update by early afternoon to all Alert subscribers if I get confirmation that it is time to exit these positions.
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t part of a trend comes at the very end. This is why I've wanted to stay in there on this uptrend as long as possible, as there could still be big jumps up in price before we reach the exhaustion point.
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xing Thanksgiving with family and friends.
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to push the markets higher, which is one reason why playing the short side lately has been a tough proposition.
If this is confusing, again, don't worry. I'll keep explaining this until it's second nature. Also, since your 21st Century Alert subscription includes Adam's
omic recovery to mobilize this risk-averse money into the stock market on the bullish side.
Luckily we have the luxury to take profits and step aside, and see how this plays out.
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the 20s doesn't necessarily signal the end of this uptrend. It could be just the beginning of a new advance phase, actually.
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line "Total Confusion", and expressed dissastisfaction that there are too many conflicting opinions within our 21st Century Alert service. The suggestion followed that it was my job as Editor to straighten everyone out and forge a consensus.
I'm sorry, but I just don't think
he trading much easier if the markets can now create a large plurality of bulls. One of the big hurdles in this process -- the 40 week moving average on the VIX -- has already been decisively breached.
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ing to Phil's service. It's not just essential reading, it's mandatory reading.
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Title: Morning Briefing, 11/14/2002
THURSDAY a.m.
November 14, 2002
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g to be the dominant theme, and I believe the long-term momentum of sentiment will hold sway. So we'll see which way it plays out, and we shouldn't have too long to wait.
Sentiment Analysis from Phil Erlanger
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uptrends in the intermediate-term, and these uptrends continue to dominate the market action. Buy confidence is holding steady around 40%.
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n the middle of the range, reflecting a market that is well-balanced in terms of sentiment, relative to recent history.
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100, and into the neutral row on the SPX.
Confidence numbers are little changed, and remain in the middle of the range.
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uot;mature uptrend" rows.
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and 42% on the Nasdaq 100.
So far, the short-term declines have been completely swamped by the strength of the intermediate-term uptrends.
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