The Japanese could have a support from the declines of the equity
market since the end of last week getting lower than 89 versus the
greenback which could get the same support as a safe haven across the
broad.

The single currency has fallen versus the greenback below 1.33 waiting
for another ECB interest rate cut later this week and this cut is
widely expected to be not less than .5%. We have informed you recently
that the inability to break 1.394 again yesterday caused a break of
1.38 and stop loss triggering and even inability to stand above 1.3635
caused further selling and forming a lower high today at 1.356 and
psychological break of 1.35 not the next support is at 1.33 then
1.294. For a longer time frame you can see that there is a formed
lower high at 1.471 on the recent Single currency rally after the
fed's cut by .75% to continue the major downward trend it has started
by another failing lower than 1.44 at 1.4365 by the end of last year
on the dovish interest rate outlook differential between the single
currency and the greenback but after the rate cut the pressure on the
single currency can go down by the profit taken on buy rumors sell on
fact base specially if the cut is not more than .5% and also this
depends on the language of Trichet in the press conference after the
ECB meeting. You could see on the chart how the single currency has
started its recent rally to 1.471 after the ECB recent meeting from
1.263 but If he stressed on the inflation dovish outlook and increased
growth serious downside risks, by god's will this can have a negative
impact on the single currency over the medium term.

Best wishes

FX Consultant
Walid Salah El Din
E-Mail: m...@fx-recommends.com
http://www.fx-recommends.com

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