Forecasting Software

I will be teaching Time Series and Forecasting (an MBA course) in the Fall. I am looking for an inexpensive software package that is good for forecasting. Last year I used Minitab 12 and found it easy-to-use and accessible to students. It is available on our network with a site license so we wil

Re: hyp testing

> Except for posterior probability, none of these are tools > for the actual problems. And posterior probability is not > what is wanted; it is the posterior risk of the procedure. > > But even this relies on belief. An approach to rational > behavior makes the prior a weighting measure, without

Re: Hypothesis testing and magic - episode 2

At 09:30 AM 4/13/00 +1000, Alan McLean wrote: >In the ‘soft’ sciences it is easy enough to identify a characteristic of >interest ­ alan makes good points as usual ... but i totally object to the term 'soft' sciences ... what does soft imply? that the science is bad ... or, that merely that va

Re: cluster analysis

In article <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>, [EMAIL PROTECTED] says... > >Can anyone help with good resources on the web, journals, books, etc on >cluster analysis - simularity and ordination. Any recommended programs >for this type of analysis too. > >Cheers >Elisa Wood For a list of cluster analysis prog

Re: Data Mining

Data Mining = Statistics reborn with a new name. You ask the wrong crowd. Go to http://www.kdcentral.com and subscribe to datamine-l mailing list. In article <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>, [EMAIL PROTECTED] says... > >I suspect in this forum, almost as bad as the F-word or N-word are the >DM-word

Hypothesis testing and magic - episode 2

Some more comments on hypothesis testing: My impression of the ‘hypothesis test controversy’, which seems to exist primarily in the areas of psychology, education and the like (this is coming from someone who has been involved in education for all my working life, but with a scientific/mathematic

summing standard errors within polynomial regression

A colleague sent the following to me at work today and after perusal of various texts (Neter et al, Pedhazur, Cohen, etc.) I am unable to give anything but an opinion...here is what he sent: "Can you answer me the following question. It concerns what is the appropriate standard error (SE) fr

Data Mining

I suspect in this forum, almost as bad as the F-word or N-word are the DM-words... Data Mining... I agree, but wonder about criteria. Often in our various research domains we have no choice but to use retrospective data. A classic example might be validating an investment approach by examining

Re: hyp testing

On 12 Apr 2000, Herman Rubin wrote: > >I have often wondered if an integrated course/course sequence might not be > >better. > > A course sequence of a rather different kind is definitely > in order. It would be at least three courses. > > The first course would be a general probability only c

Re: hyp testing

On Wed, 12 Apr 2000, Robert Dawson wrote: > > I'm afraid that I don't follow your definition of a "plausible null". > On the one hand, you say that my value (in the simulation I included) of > 102 for the mean IQ of a population is "a priori false"; you then say that > > "I like int

Re: hyp testing

In article <004101bfa35b$54beb900$[EMAIL PROTECTED]>, David A. Heiser <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: >This is a multi-part message in MIME format. >--=_NextPart_000_003E_01BFA320.A7535300 >Content-Type: text/plain; > charset="iso-8859-1" >Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable >-

hyp test:better def

it appears to me that we are having the same kinds of discussions on this topic as usual and we go round and round ... and where we stop depends on when people get tired of it is progress being made? i wonder ... perhaps some of this time would be better spent defining more what a hypoth

Re: hyp testing

In article , Magill, Brett <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: >Seems to me that hypothesis testing remains an essential step. Take for >instance the following data that I made up just for the purpose of >illustration and the correlation matrix it produces

Re: hyp testing

In article <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>, Michael Granaas <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: >On Tue, 11 Apr 2000, Robert Dawson wrote: . >> and Michael Granaas responded >> > This (point 4) is certainly what we have been lead to believe, but I >> > question the assumption

Re: hyp testing

In article <048a01bfa483$85f46280$[EMAIL PROTECTED]>, Robert Dawson <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: >Michael Granaas wrote (in part): >> The problem is that interval estimation and null hypothesis testing are >> seen as distinct species. An interval that includes zero leads to the >> same logical prob

Re: hyp testing

In article <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>, dennis roberts <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: >At 01:16 PM 4/10/00 -0300, Robert Dawson wrote: >>both leave the listener wondering "why 0.5?" If the only answer is "well, >>it was a round number close enough to x bar [or "to my guesstimate before >>the experiment"] no

Re: scientific method

On 10 Apr 2000 14:06:32 -0700, [EMAIL PROTECTED] (dennis roberts) wrote: > here are a few (fastly found i admit) urls about scientific method ... some > are quite interesting < snip; so that no one might think that I recommend the citations > I saved this note because it had references, but I

Re: hyp testing

In article <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>, Michael Granaas <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: >In thinking about my own failure to get students to ask follow up >questions to a null hypothesis test I have formulated a couple of possible >reasons. Let me know what you think. >1. Even when we teach statistics in th

Re: hyp testing

I wrote: > >(a) that their discipline ought to be a science; and Herman Rubin responded: > > What is a science? The word means "knowledge". It did once, and does still in certain uses. I _think_ that everybody here is aware that the main meaning today is more restricted. > >Granted, if

Re: hyp testing

In article <01e301bfa2ee$b69f42b0$[EMAIL PROTECTED]>, Robert Dawson <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: >Dennis Roberts asked, imagining a testing-free universe: >>> what would the vast majority of folks who either do inferential work >>and/or >>> teach it ... DO >>> what analyses would they be doing?

Re: hyp testing

On 11 Apr 2000, Donald F. Burrill wrote: > On Mon, 10 Apr 2000, Bruce Weaver wrote in part, quoting Bob Frick: > -- >8 --- > > > > To put this argument another way, suppose the question is whether one > > variable influences another. This is a discrete

Re: hyp testing

In article <007a01bfa1c7$aa97c460$[EMAIL PROTECTED]>, David A. Heiser <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: >Lots of interesting replies. >A. The "community" Denis Roberts refers to wants statistics to tell them >which is better, which of two models is the correct one, how much more will >method B cost me,t

Re: hyp testing

a professor thought that he was producing a test of 50 items at 'about the 50%' difficulty level, that is .. on average, the scores would be about 50%. now, he collected data from a random sample of n=40 of his class ... gave them the test ... and then did a ttest using 25 as the null ... he fo

Re: hyp testing

In article <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>, dennis roberts <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: >i was not suggesting taking away from our arsenal of tricks ... but, since >i was one of those old guys too ... i am wondering if we were mostly lead >astray ...? >the more i work with statistical methods, the less i see

Re: hyp testing

Michael Granaas wrote (in part): > The problem is that interval estimation and null hypothesis testing are > seen as distinct species. An interval that includes zero leads to the > same logical problems as failure to reject a false null. No; an interval that includes zero has additional info

RE: Hypothesis testing and magic

Finally a voice of sanity!!! Henry M. Silvert Ph.D. Research Statistician The Conference Board 845 Third Ave. New York, NY 10022 Phone : (212)339-0438 Fax : (212)836-3825 Email : [EMAIL PROTECTED] > -Original Message- > From: Alan McLean [SMTP:[EMAIL PROTECTED]] > Sent: Tuesday, Apr

Re: cluster analysis

I distribute a program called COMPAH that does Lance-Williams combinatorial agglomerative clustering with 20-30 different similarity dissimilarity indices. It is a Fortran program that runs on Windows or DOS. It will cluster very large datasets (thousands of items) quickly. I provide documentat

Support Vector Book: Available Now

The Support Vector Book is now distributed and available (see http://www.support-vector.net for details). AN INTRODUCTION TO SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINES (and other kernel-based learning methods) N. Cristianini and J. Shawe-Taylor Cambridge University Press, 2000 ISBN: 0 521 78019 5 http://www.suppor