Re: [EM] Real IRV Election, Disputable Result

2006-03-21 Thread Anthony Duff
--- Jan Kok [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: On 3/21/06, Anthony Duff [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: I, like James, have thought about this. It is particularly relevant in the common Australian electorate, where the voting pattern is (with A left, B squeezed centre, C right, extreme and other random

Re: [EM] Real IRV Election, Disputable Result

2006-03-14 Thread Brian Olson
On Mar 12, 2006, at 8:28 AM, radio deli wrote: Dear Jan,   I saw your post on the Elections Methods List.  As a Vermont legislator, we may have to decide the issue of IRV on a statewide basis.  To be honest, I'm not very enthusiastic about IRV.  I would prefer to support the candidate (not plural)

Re: [EM] Real IRV Election, Disputable Result

2006-03-14 Thread Brian Olson
Oops! And a good thing for double checks! The good thing about having implemented all these things 4-5 times is that I had another set of code to check myself against, and that agreed with Mr. LeGrand's calculations. I found the bug in my new code which erroneously reported that IRV and

Re: [EM] Real IRV Election, Disputable Result

2006-03-14 Thread Eric Gorr
radio deli wrote: What are the problems you see with IRV? Could you explain them in a way that people without a statistics degree (like me) could comprehend? I hope you have a chance to respond---you seem quite knowledgeable on the topic! Here's a great commentary posted by Ralph Suter

Re: [EM] Real IRV Election, Disputable Result

2006-03-14 Thread Dave Ketchum
SUMMARY of what I see since Rep. Jim Condon asked for help: With IRV, tie-rank votes need to either be prohibited or the exact way of accounting for them defined (counting them with each tied candidate holding the same rank encourages taking advantage of such voting). With Condorcet, tie-rank

Re: [EM] Real IRV Election, Disputable Result

2006-03-14 Thread Jonathan Lundell
At 12:47 PM -0500 3/14/06, Dave Ketchum wrote: SUMMARY of what I see since Rep. Jim Condon asked for help: With IRV, tie-rank votes need to either be prohibited or the exact way of accounting for them defined (counting them with each tied candidate holding the same rank encourages taking

Re: [EM] Real IRV Election, Disputable Result

2006-03-14 Thread raphfrk
Jonathan Lundell [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Jeff O'Neill (who I think is on this list) suggests a tree representation of an ranked election profile (Voting matters #21 http://www.mcdougall.org.uk/VM/ISSUE21/INDEX.HTM) as a means of speeding up the tabulation of the election. It seems to me that

Re: [EM] Real IRV Election, Disputable Result

2006-03-13 Thread James Gilmour
Jan Kok Sent: Monday, March 13, 2006 4:07 AM Yes, I agree that the election rules affect how people vote. But, unsophisticated IRV supporters are not aware that there can be incentives to vote insincerely in IRV elections, or may believe that IRV and Condorcet will always, or almost

Re: [EM] Real IRV Election, Disputable Result

2006-03-13 Thread Eric Gorr
James Gilmour wrote: Jan Kok Sent: Monday, March 13, 2006 4:07 AM Yes, I agree that the election rules affect how people vote. But, unsophisticated IRV supporters are not aware that there can be incentives to vote insincerely in IRV elections, or may believe that IRV and Condorcet will

Re: [EM] Real IRV Election, Disputable Result

2006-03-13 Thread James Gilmour
Eric Gorr Sent: Monday, March 13, 2006 1:31 PM James Gilmour wrote: Jan Kok Sent: Monday, March 13, 2006 4:07 AM Yes, I agree that the election rules affect how people vote. But, unsophisticated IRV supporters are not aware that there can be incentives to vote insincerely in IRV

Re: [EM] Real IRV Election, Disputable Result

2006-03-13 Thread Eric Gorr
Quoting James Gilmour [EMAIL PROTECTED]: Eric Gorr Sent: Monday, March 13, 2006 1:31 PM James Gilmour wrote: Jan Kok Sent: Monday, March 13, 2006 4:07 AM Yes, I agree that the election rules affect how people vote. But, unsophisticated IRV supporters are not aware that there can be

Re: [EM] Real IRV Election, Disputable Result

2006-03-13 Thread Jonathan Lundell
At 9:06 PM -0700 3/12/06, Jan Kok wrote: When I counted Kiss vs. Miller 4755 to 3988, I didn't count any of the Kiss=Miller votes. I just now checked one of my intermediate data files and saw that there were 13 ballots that ranked Kiss=Miller(=others sometimes). If you want to give each 1/2

[EM] Real IRV Election, Disputable Result

2006-03-13 Thread radio deli
Dear Jan, I saw your post on the Elections Methods List. As a Vermont legislator, we may have to decide the issue of IRV on a statewide basis.To be honest, I'm not very enthusiastic about IRV. I would prefer to support the candidate (not plural) of my choice, and if a runoff must occur

Re: [EM] Real IRV Election, Disputable Result

2006-03-13 Thread Jonathan Lundell
At 11:25 PM -0800 3/10/06, Rob LeGrand wrote: I took the raw data from the site Brian Olson posted and ended up with a slightly different pairwise table: (0) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (0)- 5545 6747 3991 6790 7336 (1) 3556- 5165 3397 5136 5875 (2) 1161 1289- 804 2028 3290 (3)

Re: [EM] Real IRV Election, Disputable Result

2006-03-13 Thread Jonathan Lundell
At 11:28 AM -0500 3/12/06, radio deli wrote: I saw your post on the Elections Methods List. As a Vermont legislator, we may have to decide the issue of IRV on a statewide basis. To be honest, I'm not very enthusiastic about IRV. I would prefer to support the candidate (not plural) of my

Re: [EM] Real IRV Election, Disputable Result

2006-03-13 Thread Dave Ketchum
BTW - it took more than a day for EM to pass this on to where I could see it. Delighted to have a Rep. take an interest - too much of the time all that happens here is debate as to theory. On Sun, 12 Mar 2006 11:28:48 -0500 radio deli wrote: Dear Jan, I saw your post on the Elections

Re: [EM] Real IRV Election, Disputable Result

2006-03-12 Thread Jan Kok
On 3/12/06, Jonathan Lundell [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: At 1:57 AM -0700 3/11/06, Jan Kok wrote: I crunched the election data and found that Kiss was preferred to Miller, 4755 to 3988. Drat. :-) That's still not numerically consistent with the published Burlington results; I wonder what the

Re: [EM] Real IRV Election, Disputable Result

2006-03-11 Thread Dave Ketchum
THANK YOU!!! Glad you and I agree on the result, though via different approaches. The Bowman table has the look of being a Condorcet result, though not actually labeled as such. So I looked at the numbers for Kiss vs Curley, Louie, and Ploof. In each case the numbers in row 3 could be Kiss

Re: [EM] Real IRV Election, Disputable Result

2006-03-10 Thread Jan Kok
Holy sacred cow, Batman!! According to Brian's analysis, Miller was the Condorcet winner, but Kiss won the actual IRV election. Miller was preferred over Kiss 3991 to 3455. Brian, the number of first-choice votes according to your histograms doesn't exactly match the numbers on the Burlington

Re: [EM] Real IRV Election, Disputable Result

2006-03-10 Thread Jonathan Lundell
At 7:00 PM -0700 3/10/06, Jan Kok wrote: Holy sacred cow, Batman!! According to Brian's analysis, Miller was the Condorcet winner, but Kiss won the actual IRV election. Miller was preferred over Kiss 3991 to 3455. Brian, the number of first-choice votes according to your histograms doesn't

Re: [EM] Real IRV Election, Disputable Result

2006-03-10 Thread Jan Kok
Thanks for doing this analysis! This is BIG news in the small world of voting methods! :-) How so? It's well known that IRV/AV/STV doesn't necessarily find the Condorcet winner. It shouldn't be too surprising that there are real-world examples. -- /Jonathan Lundell. Yes, Jonathan, of

Re: [EM] Real IRV Election, Disputable Result

2006-03-10 Thread Jonathan Lundell
At 11:08 PM -0500 3/10/06, Abd ul-Rahman Lomax wrote: At 09:39 PM 3/10/2006, Jonathan Lundell wrote: Thanks for doing this analysis! This is BIG news in the small world of voting methods! :-) How so? It's well known that IRV/AV/STV doesn't necessarily find the Condorcet winner. It shouldn't be

Re: [EM] Real IRV Election, Disputable Result

2006-03-10 Thread Jonathan Lundell
Let me generalize my argument. If an IRV election comes down to two candidates left standing, and one of those candidates is also the Condorcet winner, then the Condorcet winner must also be the IRV winner. That seems to be the case in the Burlington example. -- /Jonathan Lundell.

Re: [EM] Real IRV Election, Disputable Result

2006-03-10 Thread Rob LeGrand
I took the raw data from the site Brian Olson posted and ended up with a slightly different pairwise table: (0) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (0)- 5545 6747 3991 6790 7336 (1) 3556- 5165 3397 5136 5875 (2) 1161 1289- 804 2028 3290 (3) 4763 5730 6961- 7027 7351 (4) 987 1318 1869