Tim May wrote:
>Time for a digression. The classic urn experiment, with Price's objections.
>
>And let me throw in something several members of this list will likely
>appreciate: a bet on the outcomes (a la Bayesian reasoning, a la market
>processes, a la Robin Hanson's idea futures, a la proba
On 18-Aug-02, Tim May wrote:
> Hal has brought up Huw Price's book, "Time's Arrow and
> Arhimedes' Point," and especially the
> thermodynamic/entropy arguments related to recurrence a la
> Poincare, Boltzmann, and others.
> A point Price makes several times is th
> "..though it needs to be borne
Tim May writes:
> OK, let us assume for the sake of argument that we should be
> overwhelmingly likely to be living in one of these "time-reversed
> cycles" (which I distinguish from "bounces" back to a Big Bang state,
> the more common view of cycles).
>
> By the same Bayesian reasoning, it i
(A minor typo is corrected)
On Sunday, August 18, 2002, at 01:00 PM, Tim May wrote:
> In Sequence One, the two urns are filled with stones of mixed color at
> the start of the film. As the main transfers stones, the number of
> black and white stones in each of the urns fluctuates, but there
Hal has brought up Huw Price's book, "Time's Arrow and Arhimedes'
Point," and especially the thermodynamic/entropy arguments related to
recurrence a la Poincare, Boltzmann, and others.
A point Price makes several times is th
"..though it needs to be borne in mind that not everyone had a clear
On Saturday, August 17, 2002, at 11:37 PM, Hal Finney wrote:
> Now you might say, so what, the whole idea that we formed in this way
> was so absurd that no one would ever take it seriously anyway. But the
> authors of this paper seem to be saying that if you assume that there is
> a positive c
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