> An example, directly related to theater attendance.
> The last time I was in L.A., I wanted to see a
> movie so I went to Westwood, the area near UCLA
> just filled (in my memory) with bustling crowds,
> nice restaurants, and movie theaters. Well, I got
> there, parked, and started walking around. There
> were no crowds, even though it was a Friday night.
> The restaurants were near-empty. So were the movie
> theaters; no waiting on line to get in, and when
> you did, you found yourself sitting in a half-
> empty theater.
>
> I couldn't help but wonder why, so I asked.
A distiction between magical thinkers and rational thinkers is the
former tend to far more mistake correlation for causation. As Kurtz
points out, the corrleation of a prayer with a good outcome, does not
indicate causation. Only correlation.
This above post is an example that presents itself, though it does not
provide as as sharp as distinction as some.
That a bystander was killed 5 weeks prior corresponds (correlates)
with lower film attendance than percieved "years ago" by the poster,
and the near-term average as perceived by the cinema employee. Maybe
thats a reasonable guess.
However, both jump to the conclusion that the shooting was the cause
of lower attendance. Not apparently as a guess, but as fact. The
poster even then uses this one alleged fact to generalize that
americans are far more feaful than the French. More magical thinking,
taking a sparse corrleation, misinterpreting that as fact, then using
that as the basis for sweeping generalization. How magical!
Did each observer account for the following (and have the skills to do
so): seasonal and holiday variations, the longer term trend of
declining movie attendance, increased gas prices resulting in less
driving, weather variations, a current crop of bad, low grossing
films, other events at other venues or points of interest in the
city(concerts, ball games, a big TV event, even great beach weather),
Highway 10, 101 and others being jammed up, sunspots (:)), etc. I
doubt it.
Magical thinking, "knowing" that correlated things are causal --
especially when its felt to be "self-evident" are not solely the
domain of the religious right, or uneducated. It permeates society.
Even this list.
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