This message is from: Gail Russell <g...@zeliga.com>
In looking at today's update at the Calfornia Dept of Ag site, it looks like the mutant strain has only been found in horses that were either at the Kern County Cutting event, or at the Ogden event. That is out of the California horses. There is only one infected horse IN CALIFORNIA that participated ONLY in the Kern County event (which was held after the Ogden event). Other than that, there appears to be no secondary infection... yet. One mare that went to neither of the cutting events is positive for EVH-1, but not the mutant neurological strain. If we are lucky, the quarantine and containment measures may hold. So Fred...do the math for us. If there are no new cases not associated with the two cutting events, when could we consider the outbreak to have been contained? I noticed the new California case (since yesterday) is from a horse that went to the Ogden cutting, though he/she could ALSO have gone to the Kern County event and acquired the virus at the Kern County event 9 days ago. The Ogden event closed May 8 (started April 29), so new cases acquired at that event are at least 12 days since that exposure. I noticed that 12 of the 54 horses at Ogden have come down with it. That is a fairly large percentage. It looks like the incubation period is 1-10 days, but I think I read somewhere it might be as long as 21 days. (The latter could just be the result of late discover/diagnosis.) Gail Important FjordHorse List Links: Subscription Management: http://tinyurl.com/5msa7e FH-L Archives: http://tinyurl.com/rcepw Classified Ads: http://tinyurl.com/5b5g2f
