[FRIAM] Master Question List for COVID-19 (caused by SARs-CoV-2) - mql_sars-cov-2_-_cleared_for_public_release_2020_04_14.pdf

2020-04-16 Thread thompnickson2
https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/mql_sars-cov-2_-_cleare d_for_public_release_2020_04_14.pdf .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsu

[FRIAM] FRIAM Regular Session 9 a

2020-04-16 Thread Tom Johnson (via Google Docs)
I've shared an item with you: FRIAM Regular Session 9 a https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Cgu8mvXeGOCyVG2fRjwY646nv1D7n4Zl6hFhWkWkXf0/edit?usp=sharing&ts=5e98efbd It's not an attachment -- it's stored online. To open this item, just click the link above. Sorry to be late with this. No new

Re: [FRIAM] All models are wrong - modeling Covid-19

2020-04-16 Thread Frank Wimberly
Well, I know this happened: In 1974, when I worked in the Research Center in Child Psychiatry at the University of Pittsburgh, I was happily smoking a cigar while working on my computer terminal which gave me access to the DECSystem10. A very senior woman psychoanalyst looked in my door and said,

Re: [FRIAM] All models are wrong - modeling Covid-19

2020-04-16 Thread uǝlƃ ☣
I'm not so sure we know what he meant ... or if he even said it! https://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/08/12/just-a-cigar/ On 4/16/20 12:09 PM, Marcus Daniels wrote: > The queen was wondering too. > > https://hvmag.com/life-style/history/franklin-delano-roosevelt-the-picnic-that-won-the-war-the-ro

Re: [FRIAM] All models are wrong - modeling Covid-19

2020-04-16 Thread Marcus Daniels
The queen was wondering too. https://hvmag.com/life-style/history/franklin-delano-roosevelt-the-picnic-that-won-the-war-the-royal-visit-the-hot-dog-summit-of-1939-and-hyde-park-on-the-hudson-movie/ From: Friam on behalf of Frank Wimberly Sent: Thursday, April 1

Re: [FRIAM] All models are wrong - modeling Covid-19

2020-04-16 Thread Frank Wimberly
He meant that cigars aren't always phalluses. He was probably smoking a cigar when he said it. Classically "phallus" means a symbol. On Thu, Apr 16, 2020 at 1:03 PM uǝlƃ ☣ wrote: > Yes, but what did he mean by it, I wonder? >8^D > > On 4/16/20 12:01 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote: > > Good Freud qu

Re: [FRIAM] All models are wrong - modeling Covid-19

2020-04-16 Thread uǝlƃ ☣
Yes, but what did he mean by it, I wonder? >8^D On 4/16/20 12:01 PM, Frank Wimberly wrote: > Good Freud quote, Glen. -- ☣ uǝlƃ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/

Re: [FRIAM] All models are wrong - modeling Covid-19

2020-04-16 Thread Frank Wimberly
Good Freud quote, Glen. On Thu, Apr 16, 2020 at 12:57 PM wrote: > Ok. Well said. I am sending Cranky Nick to the medicine cabinet right > now. Give a few hours for the medication to take. > > Nick > > Nicholas Thompson > Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology > Clark University > thom

Re: [FRIAM] All models are wrong - modeling Covid-19

2020-04-16 Thread thompnickson2
Ok. Well said. I am sending Cranky Nick to the medicine cabinet right now. Give a few hours for the medication to take. Nick Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University thompnicks...@gmail.com https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ -Original Me

Re: [FRIAM] All models are wrong - modeling Covid-19

2020-04-16 Thread uǝlƃ ☣
Well, my guess is that Feynman would admit that everything has context, including both an original utterance and subsequent repetitions of all or part of that utterance. [†] And it's also important to note that ALL pithy aphorisms are abominations because they all deny the context. We see this m

Re: [FRIAM] All models are wrong - modeling Covid-19

2020-04-16 Thread thompnickson2
Glen, I think the repetition of the Feynman Quote, which is just misguided, and which I hear all the time, and which I cannot believe Feynman would not have repudiated if he were set down with a good philosopher, is Cultish. But it was Cranky Nick who said that. I disavow him, utterly. Ni

Re: [FRIAM] All models are wrong - modeling Covid-19

2020-04-16 Thread uǝlƃ ☣
It's not a matter of the audience misunderstanding you so much as taking responsibility for our own actions. With the recent discussion with Dave about his assuming nobody would read his words as authoritative (despite their wording not having any "in my opinion" caveats) AND the citing of notor

Re: [FRIAM] All models are wrong - modeling Covid-19

2020-04-16 Thread thompnickson2
Could anybody have been in any doubt that those weren’t my words? (};-)] If there is such a person, I am honored by their confusion. By the way, what is this “reality” that the author is talking about, speaking of physics’ s need for philosophy. And while I am in and being grumpy, St

Re: [FRIAM] anthropological observations

2020-04-16 Thread uǝlƃ ☣
I've quote-included what I think is the most important part of Dave's rant below your comment on consolidation of local outlets by right-leaning organizations. Dave's comment about "hard data" showing the model *extrapolations* being 20-50% higher than the numbers shown in local media. To my ey

Re: [FRIAM] The fundamental theory of physics

2020-04-16 Thread Jochen Fromm
Compared to Sabine Hossenfelder I prefer the approach from Stephen Wolfram. I must admit I don't like the book from Sabine ("Lost in math") at all. She only argues we have not made a breakthrough for decades which is rather obvious. Stephen at least tries to make such a breakthrough. Sabine does

Re: [FRIAM] All models are wrong - modeling Covid-19

2020-04-16 Thread Marcus Daniels
Glen writes: "I was forced to admit it's true. I don't know her or what the next bit in her sequence will produce." Similarly, and without being a spoiler, Marty's adaptation to his visit to Mexico, in _Ozark_. Whether it is "free" or not is not the distinction I would make. Is it an interes

Re: [FRIAM] All models are wrong - modeling Covid-19

2020-04-16 Thread uǝlƃ ☣
Or, your free will is nothing but randomness. When we took Renee's granddaughter to the UK last year, I made some comment suggesting I doubted she would ever respond violently to a mugger (all the girls, being typical Americans who rarely travel to foreign countries and, hence, suffer an impli

Re: [FRIAM] All models are wrong - modeling Covid-19

2020-04-16 Thread Marcus Daniels
Well, I love the idea that all the QM hocus pocus could just boil down to round off. Your "free will" is truncation error. Oops. (Funny contrast with the last episode of Devs.) Marcus From: Friam on behalf of uǝlƃ ☣ Sent: Thursday, April 16, 2020 10:27 AM

Re: [FRIAM] All models are wrong - modeling Covid-19

2020-04-16 Thread uǝlƃ ☣
To be clear, the below aren't Nick's words, they're cut-n-paste from the paper. On 4/16/20 9:23 AM, thompnicks...@gmail.com wrote: > It is usual to identify initial conditions of classical dynamical systems > with mathematical real numbers. However, almost all real numbers contain an > infinite

Re: [FRIAM] All models are wrong - modeling Covid-19

2020-04-16 Thread thompnickson2
Marcus, et. al., I love it when you Wizards talk dirty. It is usual to identify initial conditions of classical dynamical systems with mathematical real numbers. However, almost all real numbers contain an infinite amount of information. I argue that a finite volume of space can’t contai

Re: [FRIAM] All models are wrong - modeling Covid-19

2020-04-16 Thread uǝlƃ ☣
That is a super cool paper, well worth the time it took for my super slow brain. I'm still struggling with the stance I have to take on non-determined numbers for it to make sense. But because it simply *smacks* of the same argument I make to my clients about numerical integration e.g. ODE syste