ecay to CO2, yet
that does as much good as reducing fossil fuel emissioins to zero, which nobody
believes is feasible this side of 2100
Cheers
Peter
- Original Message -
From: Mike MacCracken
To: Peter Read ; Martin Hoffert ; David Keith ; Greg Rau ; Geoengineering ;
John Nissen ;
d to be able to deploy a proven technology quickly,
if/when the situation calls for it
Peter
- Original Message -
From: Mike MacCracken
To: Peter Read ; John Nissen ; Ken Caldeira
Sent: Sunday, November 22, 2009 2:49 AM
Subject: Re: [geo] A simple argument for SRM geoeng
RE: [geo] Re: Rejected - a simple argument for SRM geoengiI must be off the map
somewhere I guess, but in my view you guys have got it wrong
This is because the calculations pertain exclusively to atmospheric
physics/chemistry.
In fact the biosphere fixes about 60 Gt C annually plus another 20
John
If it is to impact on policy -- I guess policy-makers are the intended audience
but how to get the message to them is another question -- it is important to
realise there are quite likely a fair number of deniers out there. It is no
good just saying [or implying] they are wrong since conf
John, Andrew
Re "BTW, does anybody know the _immediate_ warming potential of methane?"
Someone will correct me no doubt but my understanding is that warming is a rate
process measured in W/m^2
So "instantaneous" [[== "immediate"?]] warming is an incorrect concept
Unless it continues for a second,
Re
"> How about if China offers to put CO2 and SO2 scrubbers on so that the
> radiative forcing from removing each just cancels? That is a win-win
> situation." ?
It would cost a lot more money
Any sign of Copenhagen delivering CCS technology to developing countries
free (or even free of IP royal
Hi Alan
Not clear what you mean by "pro-geoengineering at this point".
If you mean pro-large-scale-deployment-of-half-baked-schemes I agree.
If you mean small and medium scale deployment to learn more about schemes
for saving Arctic sea-ice I disagree
On the other hand I would like to see research
Apologies
My comment re Mid east oil and Texas was intendedly ironic
But irony always a dangerous way to go unless in eyeball contact
I don't doubt you have the measure of increasing denialism correctly
portrayed
Peter
- Original Message -
From: "Glyn Roberts"
To: &
/AirCapture.html, paper #116 which is a
longer overview of the engineering design constraints on air capture systems.
We do talk about nuclear and solar driven air capture systems. In the long run,
I think if air capture makes sense it will be powered by non-fossil energy.
Peter Read has asserted that
Re: [geo] ERL papers on lineThere's no way that increasing CO2 emissions can be
significantly slowed any time soon. There's 5 billion people out there that
want the lifestyle they see 2 billion Westerners enjoying on TV
So the answer has to be to get 10 GtC / yr out of the atmosphere, and a bit
The 3 degrees long term equilibrium temperature rise was in Hansen's Dec 17
2008 Bjerknes Lecture to the AGU. Sorry, don't have the URL.
To avoid it then the need is to return to (or near to) preindustrial LEVELS,
as I maintain is both feasible and socio-economically desirable through
carbon
Certainly I'm not a taker for that wager Ken -- China, India, South Africa all
with vast coal reserves and offered no significant help from the 'North' to
deploy CCS will certainly ensure you would win. Which makes it all the more
urgent to start thinking about getting C out of the atmosphere a
Re: [geo] Re: [CCP] Grow trees fast and bury them?I am reluctant to burden this
list with a very long message, but for those interested I append some
references to work I finished a decade ago but was little noticed (peer review
imperialism again) by an economics profession heavily bent on selli
riginal Message -
From: "VNBC INC"
To: "geoengineering"
Sent: Monday, October 05, 2009 2:37 AM
Subject: [geo] Re: Robeson Channel Suitable for Suspension Cabling to Block
Prevent Southward Ice Movement
Wont the salt spray melt the icebergs?
On Oct 4, 12:36 am, &q
Just a thought
Once you've got the ice bergs to stop near an entrance to this or some other
channel then maybe spend all winter spraying salt water onto it that freezes
and gradually weighs the bergs down till they sit on the bottom. Then spray
some more on so it sits on the bottom good and har
John, Gene, Sam and all
How do we send an open letter to COP!5? OK address it to Yves de Boer, but
he will have a lot of things on his mind.
THIS IS A BUNFIGHT WITH THOUSANDS [YES, THOUSANDS] OF PEOPLE MILLING ABOUT,
MAINLY THERE FOR NETWORKING. IF YOU WANTED A PLATFORM YOU HAD TO APPLY FOR
apologies, sent from the wroing e-mail address for googlegroups
Peter
- Original Message -
From: "Peter Read"
To: "Ron Larson" ; "geoengineering"
Cc: "Ken Caldeira"
Sent: Friday, October 02, 2009 7:45 PM
Subject: Re: [geo] Re: Grass root answ
Hi list
I supposed (for no particular reason) that Andrew was working on a
co-ordinated message and responded to him accordingly.
But he asks me to circulate this message of a wek ago to list, as now.
Peter
- Original Message -
From: "Andrew Lockley"
To: "Peter Read&qu
ulators, an alternative format is often used: the letter E or e
represents times ten raised to the power, thus replacing the x 10n. ""
OK??
- Original Message -
From: "Ron Larson"
To:
Cc: "Stephen Salter" ; "Manu
"Normal ecosystem efficiencies are typically around 0.5 %. "
Exactly. Nature doesn't do very well
Peter
- Original Message -
From: Ken Caldeira
To: Stephen Salter
Cc: Manu Sharma ; Peter Read ; simev...@gmail.com ; geoengineering ;
wayne.ba...@decc.
So we need to reform the way we treat land and soil if we are to survive
Friedman's integrated problems, but physical scientists tend to shy away from
behavioural solutions -- is that your problem?
Peter
- Original Message -
From: Ken Caldeira
To: Stephen Salter
C
et fossil fuels (i.e. tilling for bio-oil not drilling for fossil
oil).
Peter.
- Original Message -
From: Ken Caldeira
To: Manu Sharma
Cc: Peter Read ; simev...@gmail.com ; geoengineering
Sent: Sunday, September 27, 2009 8:18 PM
Subject: [geo] Re: Manifesto for Geoengin
rate
my point. You can read it as well as I.
Having spoken to Simon Shackley at the UKBRC in January I doubt your
assertion that the centre is in significant disagreement with the RS.
He told me advocates "have to avoid creating the impression there’s
some sort of magic bullet here". Meanwhi
t it could make a large contribution. As is the case
with biofuels, there is also the significant risk that inappropriately
applied incentives to encourage biochar might increase the cost and
reduce the availability of food crops, if growing biomass feedstocks
becomes more profitable than growing food.
. Wonder if the absorption of
>> upwelling solar IR is factored into this?
>>
>> I can't provide much else in the way of details of the idea, but the
>> website seems heavily weighted towards getting donations to make the
>> project work. In today's post Madoff-Bush-Lehman Bros. w
Ken
I like to know who it is
But I don't like to think of it becoming a burden for you
Loose control with collective back-up, as you suggest, seems a fair
compromise
Peter
- Original Message -
From: "Ken Caldeira"
To: "geoengineering"
Sent: Friday, September 25, 2009 2:21 AM
Subject: [
Question.
Sounds interesting! I am looking forward to finding out more
information
On Sep 23, 11:09 pm, "Peter Read" wrote:
> "defined as the deliberate large scale intervention in the Earth's climate
> system, in order to moderate global warming" (Royal Soci
"defined as the deliberate large scale intervention in the Earth's climate
system, in order to moderate global warming" (Royal Society Policy Document
10/09, para 3)
visit http://royalsociety.org/displaypagedoc.asp?id=35151
- Original Message -
From: "Frank Parry"
To: "geoengineering"
- Original Message -
From: Leslie Field
To: Peter Read
Cc: Leslie Field
Sent: Thursday, September 24, 2009 5:26 AM
Subject: Re: [geo] Re: Manifesto for Geoengineering
Hi Peter,
My email reply to you didn't post to the google group, as I'm not a member.
Not sure that&#
Alan,
I would not want to be alligned with any gung-ho brigade, but I do think it is
foolish to emphasize the risks of geoengineering to the neglect of the risks of
relying solely on emissions reductions.
I think selected technologies that pass the test of scale, of reversibility, of
timelines
Yes, really helpful to understanding. Thanks to all -- mostly Alvia I think
it is
Re [[somewhere down this message, not quite sure who said what]]
""> Volcanic SO2 is so efficient at cooling the earth because it reaches a
> layer
> in the stratosphere with primarily horizontal winds that spread
If we do a simple experiment and get
>> significant acid rain or snow it is a problem. If not, it is a great
>> solution. Keep it simple.
>>
>> *From:* geoengineering@googlegroups.com
>> [mailto:geoengineer...@googlegroups.com] *On Behalf Of *Peter Read
&g
Whatever their nav aids, the folklore I have received is that they took the
precaution of paddling upwind, against the Easterly tradewinds, so that they
could sail home again if they found no land. When they explored further South
from the Cook Islands the winds started blowing from the West an
Albert
Seems to me he might ask what can we do about it?
Famously he once remarked "it's the economy stupid"
So have a KISS [Keep It Stupid Simple ] response ready
""Grow a lot of trees -- and be ready to shoot sulphur into the Arctic
stratosphere""
If he asks why tell him that both are
a
igh-risk and incomplete solution
when we have a better alternative in CDR.
Prof. Klaus Lackner of Columbia university has successfully demonstrated
pre-prototype of a carbon scrubbing technology dubbed as "synthetic tree" by
the media. A prototype is currently under development a
Should we reserve "catastrophe" for a domino sequence in which retreating
Arctic sea ice precipitates irreversible positive feedback warming that sees
the sea ice gone in, say, about a decade, which causes further warming that
melts tundra to a depth where soil/peat is permanently unfrozen and
I have wondered why this message has not appeared on the geoengineering ste and
now discover I inadvertantly sent it only to Manu
Better late than never
Peter
- Original Message -
From: Peter Read
To: Manu Sharma
Sent: Wednesday, September 09, 2009 6:41 PM
Subject: Re: [geo] Re: on
On the contrary Manu
We are trying to understand the relationship between a variety of SRM and CDR
technologies to see if we can find a way to cool the earth (to avert threats of
polar meltdown that will inundate many highly fertile delta regions) without
threatening critical regional patterns s
Presumably you could do a small release over 100km^2 of Alaska and fly over
it to see if there were indeed any local whitening
Maybe use some 18O2 isotope to trace where it goes to?
Peter
- Original Message -
From: "Alan Robock"
To:
Sent: Tuesday, September 08, 2009 5:54 AM
Subject: [g
Hi John
Thanks for raising this question which puzzles me also
My understanding is that monsoons (Indian, African, South American) depend upon
a convection cell driven by hot summer air rising over continental masses
advecting warm wet air from adjacent oceans which gains latent heat of
conden
Hi Ken, John
Re "If you turn off solar deflection you would get rapid warming (no overshoot,
but a rapid rebound)."
Rapid rebound to the rate of warming that you would be at had the SRM not been
going on
But not rapid rebound to where you would be had the SRM not been going on.
Because anything
probably I'm being stupid but it seems to me that if earth is tilted a bit more
it will present more arctic to the sun in the northern summer and more
antarctic to the sun in the southern summer ?? And ditto for elipticity
(though I don't think it needs coincide with tilt?)??. As for precessio
s that involves forms
of governance we don't have yet. It involves technologies we are just
glimpsing. It involves what ecologists call ecosystem engineering.
Beavers do it, earthworms do it. They don't usually do it at a
planetary scale. We have to do it at a planetary scale. A lo
Re "We tend to focus on the Atlantic because that's where most of us live."
Most of us Japanese, Koreans, Chinese, Philippinos, Vietnamese, Indonesians,
Micronesians, Ozzies, Kiwis, etc live on the Pacific
We may not have as much money but there are more of us
Oh, and Californians, Chileans, Ecua
he loss of which could lead to domino effects in relation to methane emissions
and the stability of Greenland's ice cover. We may need some SRM technologies,
and we may need them soon, so we had better learn about them.
Wake up, wise up and stop telling terminological inexactitud
that is called contingency planning. The key is to have
a plan and to take the steps needed to put it in place when and if needed---
not put it in place.
--
From: geoengineering@googlegroups.com
[mailto:geoengineer...@g
The essence of risk management is to prerpare for the worst until it has been
proved it can't happen.
Blanchon et al 2009 Nature 458 881-884 provide evidence from coral reef
back-stepping of rapid sea level rise at the close of the last interglacial
highstand
Hearty et al 2007 Quartenary Sci r
ic for danger from several imminent
potential climatic catastrophes is accumulated global heating, not the rate of
change of temperature or the temperature increase. Visit
http://ecf.pik-potsdam.de/Events/previous-events/ipcc-conference-1/ipcc_conf_2007/Peter-Read-Berlin%20IPCC%20statement.pdf/view
fo
ich is too much DMS would be produced which would cool the SO region by >10 C.
Sincerely,
Oliver Wingenter
From: geoengineering@googlegroups.com
[mailto:geoengineer...@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Peter Read
Sent: Friday, August 07, 2009 2:31 PM
To: agask..
Firstly, congratulations John and Stephen - let's hope this publicity moves
thinking along and helps gets started some support for practical trials
Second, re Lomberg, supping with a long spoon may be better than starvation.
Third, I hope the Royal Society (and the Nobel Laureates gathering in DC
Treating the outcome of scenarios as a sample from the probability
distribution function of what the real world actually is, Harvard economist
Weitzman showed last year that the post hoc pdf would be a student-T
distribution having a 'fat tail' that gives far greater weight to extreme
events t
In order to extract useful electric power it is necessary for electric current
to flow in a circuit. Practical machines work by having one part of a circuit
moving in a magnetic field, while the return path avoids it. Maybe you could
generate an electric potential between one end and another o
Sending again as this failed to go to to the group 12 hours ago due to an
error on my part
Cheers
Peter
- Original Message -
From: "Peter Read"
To: "John Gorman"
Cc: ; "Alan Gadain" ;
; ; "John Nissen"
Sent: Thursday, July 23, 2009 10:15 AM
It is extremely disappointing to me that Biosphere Carbon Stock Management
(BCSM) is not on the agenda
It provides the only practicable way of getting carbon out of the atmosphere
while facilitating rapid reductions in emissions through substituting
sustainably sourced biomass for fossil fuels.
Sometime back there was quite a literature about sunspot correlations with
economic activity
So far as I recollect, its intent was to warn about infering causality from
correlation
I used to ask my students whether the clouds were hurrying by because the
trees were tickling their tummies ? or w
Hi Ken, hi Mike
Re "I was suprised my email received so little attention, but it is becoming
obvious that my perspectives are becoming irrelevant to this group" I very much
hope this does not mean that, fount of knowledge Ken, you are abandoning us.
As I think Ken knows, I put in a submission
Another good thing from cooling the oceans is we can do it upwind of the coral
reefs and help them stay alive.
But, besides overheating, the acidity is also killing them.
So we also need to get C out of the linked oceans-atmosphere as well, and put
it somewhere safer. Injecting sulphur aeros
Yes, well said John.
Regardless of what many (not I) regard as doom and gloom scaremongering, an
important paper in Science (Wise et al Vol 324 pp1183-1186) shows that is
extremely costly to rely on emissions reductions alone to achieve any given
level of CO2 below b.a.u.. This may provide leve
The piece circulated previously was two weeks before the Bali conference, i.e.
18 months ago.
It is interersting and important that he is reiterating his previous concern
Peter
PS
Re John's technical problem, I turned my laptop on its side
With a desktop I guess print it out and turn the paper o
Think you have misread the age restriction
It seems to say over 16
That gives your young german savant a couple of years to perfect his or her
English
Probably not needed as young Germans seem to speak better English than most
Anglo-Saxons
Peter
- Original Message -
From: "Alvia Gaskill
rying to do, and get focused on
achieving technological progress in that direction - e.g. the Manhattan project
- is very different from statistics of past performance
Peter
- Original Message -
From: Ken Caldeira
To: Peter Read
Cc: xbenf...@aol.com ; geoengineering@google
Carnegie Institution Dept of Global Ecology
260 Panama Street, Stanford, CA 94305 USA
kcalde...@ciw.edu; kcalde...@stanford.edu
http://dge.stanford.edu/DGE/CIWDGE/labs/caldeiralab
+1 650 704 7212; fax: +1 650 462 5968
On Sat, May 16, 2009 at 12:11 PM, Peter Read wrote:
Grego
Gregory
Many thanks.
I would like to know more about the CROPS program if you have a reference
But a propos "when the trees die", they don't die under commercial
forrestation but get cut down when growth slows and the rate of increase of
value falls below the operator's cost of borrowing. Whe
m: geoengineering@googlegroups.com
> [mailto:geoengineer...@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Peter Read
> Sent: Sunday, May 10, 2009 8:17 AM
> To: j...@cloudworld.co.uk; Alvia Gaskill; s.sal...@ed.ac.uk;
> rob...@envsci.rutgers.edu
> Cc: kcalde...@dge.stanford.edu; Andrew Lockley;
It seems that in all innocence we kept the planet's climate roughly stable
for 8000 years [according to Ruddiman] by burning down forests, occasionally
visited by plagues [sent by Gaia if we were going ahead too fast?]. But
with the enlightenment came knowledge, of which eating the fruit has l
Trying again - seems I sent it from the wrong e-mail address at 8.48
- Original Message -
From: Peter Read
To: John Nissen ; Stephen Salter ; Pope, Vicky
Cc: geoengineering ; brian.laun...@manchester.ac.uk
Sent: Saturday, May 02, 2009 8:48 PM
Subject: Re: NOAA release
Sadly the
> possibilities need to be considered unless demonstrably incorrect.
Is cumulative heating a rational metric in relation to the threat of
collapse of land based ice sheets?
What do people think ?
Cheers
Peter
- Original Message -
From: "Ken Caldeira"
To:
Cc: ; "Peter
gation has lead to a research focus that's not based on
detailed consideration of this zero-option, so people are largely unaware of
its consequences.
A
2009/4/25 Peter Read
Hi folks
John does me too much credit with the word 'modest'. Thought I had
circulated, act
to say it took three
years to reach the light of day through the formal peer review process [
Climatic Change, 87/3-4 (2008) Biosphere carbon stock management: addressing
the threat of abrupt climate change in the next few decades: an editorial essay
Peter Read 305-320) ] and
Cthat I don&
This correspondence is all very interesting and S aerosol cloud albedo
modification, though having some risks, needs to be researched as a stand-by,
as Ken says (along with John Holdren in his more unguarded moments).
What I cannot understand is the continuing silence/lack of interest in the
re
Quite right Stephen. Reversibility is an important consideration and the
possibility of overshooting with policy measures and needing to burn a lot
of coal fast seems to me to be one of the many good reasons for leaving it
in the ground now. But if we run out of coal there's still those
clat
Dear Andy
With respect, it is not a question of certainty in relation to Blanchon's
work, but likelihood.
Article 3.3 of the Convention commits the Parties to take cost-effective
action "in the event of threats [not certainties] of serious or irreversible
damage without delay on account of sc
A recent paper by Lenton and Vaughan takes any way of cooling the earth that is
NOT emissions reductions to be geo-engineering. That includes afforestation
which counts for credit under the existing Kyoto Protocol and seems to me to be
pretty all-inclusive, if inclusiveness is what is sought.
A propos Alvia's final point below, I once listened to an extremely
interesting talk by a paleo-climatologist whose name I fear I have now
forgotten. He said that Antarctic climate was once much like the Arctic's
due to a warm current that flowed down the East side of Australia, mirroring
the
- and I'm not sure about the universe". Do you want to prove him
right?
Peter Read
Hon Research Fellow
Massey University Centre for Energy Research
- Original Message - From: "Stephen Salter"
To:
Cc: ; "Parker, Andrew"
Sent: Friday, April 10, 2009 4:56 AM
S
Maybe at last I have worked out how to get onto this blog !!
Will post it tomorrow if published (many a slip between cup and lip).
Peter
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