On Mon, Dec 19, 2011 at 4:57 PM, Arthur Sale <a...@ozemail.com.au> wrote:
I really donât understand how Stevan manages to call the Titanium Road âa technologically supercharged version of the Green Roadâ, but Stevan can explain that statement if he wishes.  The Gold Road to OA means the author publishes the paper in an OA journal and the journal makes the paper accessible free for all online. The Green Road to OA means the author publishes the paper in any journal and, in addition, the author makes the paper accessible free for all online ("author self-archiving"). The "Titanium Road" to OA consists of new user tools with which the author can make the article accessible free for all online ("author self-archiving"). Hence the "Titanium Road" is merely a technologically enhanced version of the Green Road ("author self-archiving"). There are only two roads to OA (free online access): The journal does it or the author does it.   The more important issue is that I have failed to get across to him that the Titanium Road has nothing to do with researcher voluntarism. Volunteerism means that in order to make their papers OA, researchers have to do something that they are not currently doing, of their own accord, not because of an institutional or funder requirement. Using new tools, voluntarily, is volunteerism. The Gold Road does, because unless the researcher is funded by the Wellcome Trust or its like, he or she is likely to have to volunteer to divert money from his or her research grant to pay the author-side fees. You've missed the much more fundamental volunteer step in publishing in a Gold OA journal, Arthur: Choosing to publish in a Gold OA journal rather than in a non-OA journal.  The Green Road also does, because the researcher has to volunteer to undertake unnatural extra work to deposit works in the institutional repository through a clunky interface. The volunteer step in Green OA self-archiving is: Choosing to self-archive. The "clunkiness" of the interface is a technological matter. Not everyone would agree that filling out a few obvious form-interface fields (login, password, author, title, journal, date, etc.) is so "clunky" or "unnatural" in a day when we are filling out online forms all the time. It's just a few minutes' worth of keystrokes. But my friend Arthur is profoundly mistaken if he thinks that the reason why over 80% of researchers are not voluntarily self-archiving today is because they find it too "clunky" to do the keystrokes. I wish it were that simple. But in fact there are at least 38 reasons researchers why do not voluntarily self-archive -- http://www.eprints.org/openaccess/self-faq/#38-worries -- and their worry that doing so might be "clunky" is just one of them (and usually based on never even having tried it out). (But I do think that it is his implicit assumption that the real deterrent to OA is having to do too many keystrokes that makes Arthur think that a new technology has come along (the "Titanium Road") that authors will find so effortless, attractive and beneficial, that they will (voluntarily) take to it, do all their keystrokes in a new way, for a new purpose, and one of the side-effects will be that their papers will have become effectively OA (i.e., accessible online, free for all). This is what is called a hypothesis. And I certainly wish that Arthur's hypothesis were to prove true -- that the natural advantages of the Titanium Technology prove to attract all researchers in all disciplines worldwide of their own accord so quickly that it closes the persistent 80% OA gap as fast as Green OA mandates would have done, and that it does so faster than it will take to persuade the world's funders and institutions to adopt Green OA mandates. But for my own part, across the last 2 long decades, I have already lived through far too many high hopes for yet another OA "Killer App" that will "tip" us to 100% OA in short order (FTP, the web, Arxiv, OAI, EPrints, IRs, SWORD, etc. etc.). I think it would be a mistake to wait for uptake of this latest App (Mendeley, etc.), and a mistake to yet again divert OA advocacy time and effort toward promoting the use and benefits of the Titanium Technology instead of devoting the lion's share of OA advocacy efforts to promoting Green OA mandates. They even hate to deposit a version of the article that they have no confidence in (the Accepted Manuscript). Arthur: Over 80% of researchers hate to deposit any version at all, and don't! Worries about versions are just one of the at-least 38 reasons researchers don't deposit, year upon year upon year. And the point is that all 38+ reasons are groundless. But it is now evident that it is hopeless to try to persuade researchers of this, one by one, researcher by researcher, reason by reason, year upon year upon year. That's why deposit has to be mandated. (That way, only researchers' funders and institutions need to be persuaded!)  So few of them do it, and they backslide so easily, that the only solution is to force them to do it (a mandate). Since mandates rely on persuasion of key executives who are themselves usually ex-researchers and are transitory, voluntarism is an intrinsic thread running through the Green Road. You are quite right that persuading the key executives of research institutions and funders to adopt an OA self-archiving mandate is a substantial challenge. But I think time has shown that it is the challenge that can yield the greatest OA dividends, the fastest, and that it hence deserves far more time and effort now than pinning our hopes yet again on trying to promote the adoption of a new killer-app by researchers. The volunteerism in question here, by the way, is the volunteer stroking of keys by researchers. Of course all human decisions, including institutional executive ones, are "free-willed" decisions. But casting that as just another variant of the OA voluntarism problem misses the fact that it is individual researcher voluntarism that is failing, and that persuading key executives to (voluntarily!) mandate researcher keystrokes is not quite the same thing. Wendy Hall (Southampton), Tom Cochrane (QUT) and Bernard Rentier (Liege), after all, are "key executives", and they have chosen, of their own free will, to mandate the OA self-archiving (keystrokes). One of the key objectives of EnablingOpenScholarship (EOS) -- of which Bernard Rentier is Director (and Tom Cochrane is a Board member) -- is to advise their fellow key executives at other institutions worldwide on how to mandate the keystrokes that are the only thing that stands between us and 100% OA.  I liken the Titanium Road with the situation with Electronic Theses and Dissertations (ETDs). Where universities mandate the deposit of an electronic copy of the thesis, the deposit rate easily reaches completeness (and I mean 100%, not the 80% or so ID/OA mandated articles sometimes achieve). It never retreats from that. Why? Because the action required of the graduating student is completely natural and theyâve always expected to do it. The university simply says âinstead of depositing two bound copies of your thesis with the university before graduating, give us one and an electronic copyâ. Or in even more enlightened universities âjust give us an electronic copyâ. The student does what is asked, and is even happy that copying the files to a CD or DVD is much, much easier than waiting for 100s of pages to print, finding a binder who can do black card covers and gold lettering, and paying for all of it. The success of ETD schemes is that they are natural, and simply electronicize a function that is already part of a PhD studentâs activity. This is alas where theorizing gets in our way: The reason students deposit theses as mandated is because deposit is mandated. Volunteer deposit means unmandated deposit. And the reason most researchers don't deposit is because deposit is mandated by fewer than 200 institutions, out of at least 10,000 worldwide! (see ROARMAP). Moreover, many of those first 200 mandates are wishy-washy ones, without a clear indication of what to do and how, and without any mechanism for monitoring compliance. Not so with Tom Cochrane's or Bernard Rentier's ID/OA mandates at QUT and U Liege. And the Liege mandate model, the most effective one of all, designates deposit as the sole mechanism for submitting publications for institutional performance assessment: âinstead of mailing paper copies or emailing digital copies of your publications to the university for performance assessment, deposit one electronic copy in the institutional repositoryâ. You, Arthur, are attributing the success to the fact that depositing is "natural." But the real reason for the success is that it is mandatory (in both cases). The Titanium Technology may prove quite natural to use, but to get everyone to use it, you would have to mandate it. That's certainly not in the cards. But mandating deposit is.   So to the Titanium Road, which is directly aimed at existing researcher practice and psychology. Every researcher worth a cent keeps a record of all their publications (and sometimes their unpublished works too). Are you sure? But let's suppose that's so. Now let's go on:  Being a person who grew up with computers but still in the Gutenberg era, I still have an archive box under the house with paper copies of all my early publications, going back to my 1969 PhD thesis and several earlier publications. A list of all the publications also exists in my curriculum vitae (cv), and I keep both up to date. Did any serious researcher do differently then? I expect that most researchers maintain and update online CVs. So far so good. Let's go on: But the times are changing. While I may have produced one of the worldâs early word-processed PhD theses (I wrote the word processing software myself too, and took over the universityâs mainframe to run it off on the console IBM typewriter in night-time hours), I did not keep a âmachine-readable copyâ (it was in several boxes of 80-column punched cards). Nowadays that is exactly what I do. I rely on electronic apps to keep my recent records. Few were as advanced as you then, and chances are that not many are as advanced as you now either; but let's suppose it is so. Let's suppose that researchers now retain digital versions of both their CVs and the papers they publish. Nevertheless, 80% of them are not doing the keystrokes to deposit these digital documents in their institutional repositories unless it is mandated. So what next?  The Titanium Road is predicated on researchers doing just this: keeping the records of their publications (full text and citations) online and in the cloud. What percentage of them do you think are doing this now? What percent will be doing it next year, in 10 years? Those are the numbers to beat, if you think this is better, surer and faster to reach 100% OA than mandating deposit.  The only tiny missing step is access to this huge resource, probably rapidly heading for 100% data coverage. That's like saying there's only one tiny missing step missing in my perpetual-motion machine! The problem has been to get authors to make their papers accessible free for all online -- not to get them to write them, or to write them digitally, or to store them digitally. They're mostly doing that already, Now I agree that if all else were indeed in place so that making papers accessible free for all online really only cost the author one single keystroke, it would be considerably easier to persuade them to do that one single keystroke (despite the 38 groundless worries that have been holding them back till now). But all else certainly isn't in place (in the "cloud"). And your hypothesis amounts to the hope that it will be in place -- more quickly and surely than mandating it -- because researchers will adopt the Titanium Killer-App of their own accord faster than institutions and funders can be persuaded to mandate deposit! (Yes, we do indeed disagree, profoundly, on that empirical prediction -- which doesn't mean that I am against Killer-Apps, Titanic or otherwise. Just that I'm against waiting for them on the hope that they will be spontaneously adopted globally fast enough to do the trick. And I'm even more against again slacking in efforts to promote deposit mandates in favor of promoting new Killer-Apps.)  Emails to the author asking for access are an âalmost OAâ option, just like the ID/OA Green Road, Emailing the author for an eprint is not what is meant by "Almost-OA". To email the author for an eprint you first need to find there's a paper, find the author's email address, and email the author to send an eprint. That's a lot of keystrokes, and a lot of time, for both the requester and the author. For "Almost-OA" (as defined in our joint paper!) the eprint must first be deposited in the author's institutional repository (in Closed not Open Access, otherwise it would be OA, not "Almost-OA") and then the repository's automated "email eprint request" Button can be used by the requester to trigger an automated eprint request to the author (all of this requiring just the cut/paste of the requester's own email address plus one keystroke from the requester to request and one keystroke from the author to fulfill). Sale, A., Couture, M., Rodrigues, E., Carr, L. and Harnad, S. (2012) Open Access Mandates and the "Fair Dealing" Button. In: Dynamic Fair Dealing: Creating Canadian Culture Online (Rosemary J. Coombe & Darren Wershler, Eds.) http://eprints.ecs.soton.ac.uk/18511/ But that's all on the premise that the paper has been deposited! For 80% of papers it has not. but increasingly I predict we will see a researcherâs personal corpus of work opened to the Internet. Thatâs OA! It is indeed. Except that it's not happening: How many researchers are actually doing this now, worldwide, and how quickly is it growing?  Of course computer scientists have long done this on their own websites, but computer scientists are able to write html code and use web tools, whereas most researchers canât or wonât waste the time to learn. Indeed computer scientists have been doing it -- ever since they invented Unix, UUCP and the Net in the '80s, with anonymous FTP. And indeed computer scientists can and do do a lot more. But have you not noticed that neither computer scientists' self-archiving practices since the '80s nor physicists' self-archiving practices since the '90s have generalized to other disciplines in the 20-30 years that they have been available  in principle? That's why we need the mandates!  The new generation of apps such as Mendeley that collect data make this as easy as creating a Facebook page, and as I said, it is simply electronicizing what they already do, better, simpler, and cheaper. And now, Arthur, it's time for you to do the stats and provide the data to support your hypothesis and its predictions: How quickly are these apps being taken up for the purposes you describe, overall, and discipline by discipline, year by year? To make your data comparable with the growth data for Gold OA, unmandated Green OA and mandated Green OA, it will need to be calculated as the percentage of yearly peer-reviewed paper output made freely accessible online by the new means you describe, for each discipline, and overall. It is not logically possible that there are some remarkable growth curves for Titanium OA burgeoning as we speak -- but I hope you agree that this is an empirical question, requiring some supporting evidence, before we are persuaded to divert efforts to promote Green OA mandates that have been shown to work fast, toward promoting the use of applications that have not. There is no âvolunteeringâ, Stevan. The researchers just keep on doing what theyâve always done, but optimize it a bit by using better tools that become available. The tool use and optimizing is voluntary, not mandatory. So the empirical question that has to be asked and answered remains: What is the evidence that this "optimizing" is actually generating OA, and what do the growth curves look like (compared to the current alternatives).  I remain optimistic. Unfortunately I cannot point to big major gains to match where the Gold Road and the Green Road have reached, but then you know me also as a person with sensitive antennae for small signals of scholarly revolutions... It is early days yet. No, Arthur, it's not early days. It's extremely late days, insofar as OA is concerned. This is not the time to keep waiting, yet again, to see how well some new piece of technology will do in generating OA. It is the time to promote, use and apply the one tested measure that we know works, rapidly and surely, if only it is adopted. And that measure is to mandate Green OA self-archiving. Stevan Harnad From: goal-boun...@eprints.org [mailto:goal-boun...@eprints.org] On Behalf Of Stevan Harnad Sent: Monday, 19 December 2011 1:10 PM To: Global Open Access List (Successor of AmSci) Subject: [GOAL] Re: Bold predictions for 2012  My friend and comrade-at-arms, the Archivangelist of the Antipodes, Arthur Sale, finds that Gold OA publishing is growing too slowly. (He's right.)  Arthur also finds that both Green OA self-archiving, and Green OA self-archiving mandates (ID/OA) are growing too slowly. (He's right.)  Arthur predicts that more and more researchers will spontaneously begin to use enhanced, interoperable, interactive electronic resources (much the way they now already use word-processing, email and the web instead of typing and paper) so that the writing, storing and record-keeping of their own articles, and exchanging them with one another, will become so rich and interdigitated and natural that it will be functionally equivalent to having deposited them in an institutional OA repository, free for all.  He calls this the "Titanium Road" to OA (though it sounds rather like a technologically supercharged version of the Green Road to me!).  And surely he is right that something along those lines is as optimal and inevitable as OA itself.  The question is: Will its use grow any faster, of its own accord, than Gold or Green OA have done?  Arthur's betting that it will -- and I of course wish he were right!  But after 20 years, I have given up completely on researcher voluntarism, even when it is overwhelmingly in their own best interests.  It was voluntarism that I assumed would bring us universal OA "virtually overnight" way back in 1994.  Technology has been doing nothing but making it easier and easier, and more and more rewarding, for researchers to provide OA, year upon year, ever since.  Yet the ever simpler and more powerful technology has never succeeded in inducing researchers -- or, rather, has not induced anywhere near enough researchers (for it has always induced some of them) -- to make their work OA in anywhere near sufficient numbers to reach that fabled OA "tipping point" that everyone keeps talking about year upon year.  So I will make no predictions for 2012, except to say that if it's a pipe-dream that voluntarism will ever kick in among researchers of its own accord, there is still the hope that their funders and institutions will come to their senses and make OA compulsory, by mandating it, as a condition for being employed and paid to conduct and report research in the online era -- which ought long ago to have become the OA era.  It is now a matter of tried, tested and demonstrated empirical -- and hence historical --  fact that OA mandates, if adopted, *do* accelerate the growth of OA for the research output of the funder or institution that mandated it -- soon approaching 100%, when it's the optimal mandate (ID/OA, Liege model, as the sole mechanism of submission for research performance assessment).  So the open empirical question now is whether adopting OA mandates will succeed in kicking in among researchers' funders and institutions in sufficient numbers -- in the way that providing OA spontaneously failed to do among researchers themselves.  Fortunately, the number of funders and institutions worldwide that need to be convinced of the benefits of mandating OA is an order of magnitude smaller than the number of researchers that need to provide OA.  And a number of sizeable mandating initiatives among funders at the national level have already successfully led to mandate adoption (notably among all the major national funders in the UK, and some at the EU level: see ROAMAP), with the biggest of all (COMPETES) now under deliberation in the US.  And at the global institutional level, there is now Bernard Rentier's and Alma Swan's EnablingOpenScholarship (EOS), established to help guide the universal providers of research, funded and unfunded, in all disciplines -- namely,  universities and research institutions -- in designing OA policies worldwide.  So whereas there is no basis for crowing about "tipping points," there is reason to hope that we may not have to keep waiting for technology to put us over the top spontaneously via Arthur's "Titanium Road" -- though technology's help in providing OA and enhancing its benefits is always welcome (and being actively incorporated into the EPrints and DSpace repository software as well as into the implementation of OA mandates almost as fast as it is developed).  Stevan Harnad Superannuated Archivangelist   On 2011-12-18, at 4:12 PM, Arthur Sale wrote: Richard, you asked what weâd like to see in 2012.  Iâd like to see more open access journals, and higher prestige attached to those that already exist. Who wouldnât? Iâd also like to see more ID/OA mandated institutional repositories. Again who wouldnât? But I donât see either strategy as taking Open Access to the tipping point where a scholarly revolution becomes unstoppable. Why? Because both strategies are too cerebral, too argumentative, too technological, and they require at present unnatural actions on the part of researchers.  What I want to predict is a growing number of researchers doing completely natural things that have always been in their repertoire of work, for example like keeping a lifetime record of their publications and ephemera. It used to be a collection of paper, but the social media tools like Mendeley now allow this to be electronic, and like the silent transition from typewriters to the admittedly superior word processing software, I predict we will see a silent transition to online in-the-cloud corpus collections. Making this open access is technologically trivial, and I have named this the Titanium Road to open access: light-weight, strong, robust and recognises what people actually do.  If I can make another prediction, I think that 2012 might just be the year that we begin to question the copyright position of articles. Despite legal transfer of copyright (sometimes) most publishers pay only lip-service to their âownershipâ and carry out minimal due diligence in their âpurchaseâ in return for services, and researchers respond with total indifference by dispensing copies of the Version-of-Record as they see fit. Never a week goes by when I do not see someone post to a list âCan anyone send me a copy of Xxx by Yyy in journal Zzz?â and it appears they almost always are satisfied by their later posts of effusive thanks. The law in respect of scholarly articles has to change, and this might be the year that we begin to see cracks open up.  Finally, let me make my last prediction â that 2012 might see us begin to address the issue of China, and the language barriers that look like being a major part of the OA spectrum in this decade (2011-2020). The English-speaking world and the European language speaking world have been happy to live with English as the lingua franca (what a strange misnomer!), but the Asian-speaking world is not likely to be so accommodating. We shall have to begin to treat open access as a matter involving automatic translation, at first maybe just for metadata, but later for the whole article.  Richard, you said youâd like to see short posts dominate this list, so Iâve been brief to the point of encryption. I am happy to expand on any of the previous four paragraphs, recognising that some of them are separable issues. I hope I have been controversial enough to get some responses.  Arthur Sale University of Tasmania, Australia  [ Part 2: "Attached Text" ] _______________________________________________ GOAL mailing list GOAL@eprints.org http://mailman.ecs.soton.ac.uk/mailman/listinfo/goal