-------------------------------------------------------------------------- | Add your name to the CLEAN GOA INITIATIVE | | | | by visiting this link and following the instructions therein | | | | http://shire.symonds.net/pipermail/goanet/2005-October/033926.html | -------------------------------------------------------------------------- http://www.dailypioneer.com/columnist1.asp?main_variable=Columnist&file_name=nehru%2Fnehru76.txt&writer=nehru Faultlines within the UPA
The Supreme Court's verdict, which pronounced the dissolution of Bihar Assembly as 'unconstitutional' was a stinging reverse for the United Progressive Alliance. One only needs to look at what happened in Bihar in the past one year to gauge the chaotic situation in the State. Despite strictures from the Supreme Court and the High Court there has been little improvement in the socio-political condition in Bihar. Sadly, senior political leaders including former Prime Ministers condone murder, kidnapping and mafia rule in the name of protecting the 'secular' fabric of the country! The reality is whether it is the Congress at the 'top' calling the shots at the Centre or its ally the CPI(M), there is no political morality left. It is sheer determination to fight for 'survival' of the coalition Government no matter what it costs to which all the activities of the ruling alliance are directed. Thus the continuance of the UPA is the main priority. The Governor of Bihar, as the Roman saying goes, will have to 'fall upon the sword' to protect the party leader as he has done on other occasions in the past. However, make no mistake of the desperate politics that we have been witness to in Goa, Jharkhand and Bihar. Is one surprised to see political violence and chaos at the Centre? Ministers functioning within the same Government hurl abuses at each other with the Prime Minister as a silent observer to this acrimony. We have been told time and again that the Prime Minister is an honest and upright person. Then why is he indulging in such discreditable acts? One can pass the buck and not take responsibility for the deteriorating situation in Bihar but the reality of the State is starkly evident on the faces of school children who agitate for the return of some semblance of governance for their future. While the UPA leaders maintain a deafening silence on the condition of law and order in Bihar, the allies including the CPI(M), play with words. It is clear that no one has the courage to face the reality or the 'political muscle' of RJD chief Lalu Prasad Yadav and his 25 MPs apart from the Lok Janshakti Party and the CPI. The situation in Bihar raises many questions which have few answers. The Cabinet met after midnight to study the report sent by Governor Buta Singh recommending the dissolution of the State Assembly. It was then forwarded to the President, Mr APJ Abdul Kalam for his assent while he was away in Russia. He appended his signature on the order at three am. What was the great urgency? Why was the President presented with a fait accompli? It is obvious that all this was done by the UPA to prevent the NDA from forming a Government the next morning. It is not a question of getting wiser with the benefit of the hindsight as we all knew what was going on. Unfortunately, there was no one to stop this illegal act. Now the elections have been forced upon the people of Bihar and a sum close to Rs 1,000 crore will be spent to fund them. There are no prizes for guessing who is responsible for this mess. However, this may well happen again, if not in Bihar then any other State. The fact is such brazen political chicanery has to be checked if the remaining institutions of our democracy are to survive. If we fail, there is no doubt that history will pronounce those responsible for the mess guilty. I think the detailed order of the Supreme Court might reflect on several important issues including those of 'horse trading'. The anti-defection law has only pushed the issue that cuts across party lines behind closed doors. What we saw in Goa, Jharkhand and Bihar was 'portfolio trading'. Coalition structures in themselves result in division of power and assets and the biggest 'horse trading' takes place at the time of their formation. This is because almost everyone is only interested in economic portfolios. As collection of political funds is still something that is done secretly-despite periodic calls for greater transparency-the current trend is likely to continue. In not correcting the flaws within the system, we may be acquiescing in its corruption. I think it would be unfair to blame the Governor or the Home Minister for a decision which was taken by the Prime Minister and the CCPA. After all it is well known that the Prime Minister has no political power. Hence we are witnessing elections again and they may well result in a great deal of violence. Bihar politics is known for its coercion. It is possible that a section of people in Bihar may be held captive by a political group which is unable to accept 'defeat' by the ballot and determined to rule by unconstitutional methods. Hopefully the people of Bihar will vote in a manner so as to give a clear verdict so that the State does not slip deeper into the abyss of anarchy and corruption. Political battles are fought by political forces. Moreover, if we look at the political patterns in the past we will observe that while the three wings of governance-executive, legislature and judiciary-are theoretically expected to keep a check on each other, in practical terms this does not happen. The Emergency is a classic example where the battle was fought by political forces who suffered a great deal of hardship and there was little opposition from either the judiciary or the services. However, things have changed since then. In todays 'coalition' power structures with multiple power centres it would be difficult for a party which is in power to survive if it continues to violate and abuse its position. The judiciary without doubt needs reform and a great deal of changes are necessary but in the current context with events in Goa, Jharkhand and Bihar, the legal cases involving Mr Lalu Prasad Yadav and Ms Mayawati as also other sensitive political cases-the fact is that the Supreme Court and High Courts are clearly preventing the UPA from flexing its political muscle. In fact, it is the judiciary which is preventing the system from slipping into anarchy. The differences plaguing the coalition structures come from within. It is the allies constituting the coalition who oppose each other. After seven Assembly elections, which would be held before the completion of next year, one expects changes to take place unless the Congress can produce 'acceptable' results. The RJD is clearly on the defensive and despite the 'caste' divisions in the State, it would be difficult for Mr Yadav (who faces intense dissent within the dynasty) to win. The Kerala Assembly elections will result in a debacle for the Congress with four-fifth of seats going to the Left Democratic Front. On the other hand the West Bengal elections will see the CPI(M) winning with Mamta Banerjee-led Trimamool Congress coming second and the Congress heading for a poor third. The Tamil Nadu elections will once again present a complicated picture. The AIDMK seems to have recovered sufficiently to give a stiff fight. Ms J Jayalalithaa knows the tricks of vote-bank politics. Moreover, action initiated against certain religious bodies and breaking relations with the BJP have given her an added advantage over her rivals and she continues to pose a formidable threat to her political rivals. The Congress will lose Uttaranchal. Sadly, Chief Minister ND Tewari will be held responsible and replaced before the elections, but this will only accelerate the party's decline in the hill State. In Assam, the Congress will be strongly challenged by the AGP. One faction led by Prafulla Kumar Mahanta may ally with the National Congress Party. However, I think trends similar to what were witnessed in 1985 may be seen yet again as 'minority' groups unite after the court judgement on illegal immigrants. In any case, things will not be easy for the Congress. In Punjab Chief Minister Amarinder Singh faces anti-incumbency but the Akali Dal will have to fight hard to snatch the initiative. The feisty leader has recovered a little of the lost ground after the Lok Sabha disaster in Punjab and of all the seven States going to elect a new Assembly, Captain Amarinder Singh stands the best chance of getting re-elected. -- Cheers, Gabe Menezes. 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