Coalition government claim Portuguese election win Sunday 04 October 2015 20.31
Portugal's centre-right ruling coalition has claimed victory in a national election after exit polls put it well ahead of the main opposition socialists, although likely shy of an outright parliament majority. Polls show the government likely to win between 36.4% and 43% of the vote compared with 29.5-35% for the socialists. Two of the exit polls, by Catolica University for RTP television and by Intercampus/TVI, showed that the coalition could win a maximum of 116 to 118 seats in 230-seat parliament, while another showed a maximum of 108 seats. That means it still has a slim chance of winning an outright majority. "In the name of the coalition we are here to affirm that all the projections that are known point to a clear fact that the coalition Portugal Forward had a great victory on this election night," Marco Antonio Costa, deputy president of the main coalition party, the Social Democrats, told cheering supporters. "We will maintain our commitment to guarantee a recovery ...and will maintain an attitude of dialogue." The latest polls, released on Friday, gave Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho's ruling coalition a lead of between five and 12 points over centre-left Socialist opponent Antonio Costa. But if Mr Passos Coelho, whose government introduced deep spending cuts and the biggest tax hikes in living memory, fails to secure more than the around 38% that he has polled in recent days, he will fall short of an absolute majority in the parliament. http://www.rte.ie/news/2015/1004/732298-portugal-elections/ -- Portugal's election – a guide to the parties and politics The incumbent government is ahead in the polls but will it get enough support to win a majority? George Arnett Portugal goes to the polls this Sunday to give its verdict on four years of governance by a coalition of two centre-right parties, now running under one banner as Portugal à Frente (Portugal Ahead or PàF). The tenure of the current prime minister, Pedro Passos Coelho, has been marked by the three-year austerity programme the government had to implement in 2011 in return for Euro78bn (then UKP70bn) bailout funds. That programme came to an end in May last year, with Portugal passing every economic test set by its Eurozone lenders. Despite austerity taking a significant toll, the economy has shown positive signs of recovery and Coelho's coalition has nudged ahead in recent polls. The electoral system Portugal has a single chamber parliament made up of 230 members, with a maximum of four years between each election. Each of Portugal's 18 administrative districts, plus the two autonomous regions (the Azores and Madeira), are electoral constituencies. There are two further constituencies for Portuguese based abroad, one for European residents and another for those in the rest of the world. Despite this geographic split, all members of parliament represent the whole country rather than the specific locales where they are elected. Each region has a fixed number of seats to be won, with parties putting forward a list of candidates. MPs are chosen using the D'Hondt method of proportional representation, which means the higher up they are on their party list the more likely they are to get a seat. To win a majority in the parliament a party needs to gain 116 seats. No party achieved this in 2011 so a coalition government was formed. However, ruling with a minority of seats is possible as a vote of no confidence or a rejection of the leading party's agenda requires the support of an absolute majority of MPs (at least 116). The parties Portugal à Frente (Portugal Ahead) -- a centre-right electoral alliance between the two parties that have ruled in coalition for the past four years: the party of Social Democrats (PSD) and the Social Centre -- People’s party (CDS-PP). The grouping is led by Coelho. Partido Socialista (Socialist Party) -- the centre-left party that presided over the sovereign debt crisis in 2010, but has since recovered in the polls. It is led by a former mayor of Lisbon, António Costa. Coligação Democrática Unitária (CDU) -- an electoral alliance between the Communist party of Portugal and the country’s Green party. Led by Jerónimo de Sousa, who has been party secretary for over a decade. Bloco de Esquerda (Left Bloc) -- a far left party with no official leader, overseen instead by a six-member committee. Actor Catarina Martins is the main spokesperson. The issues Portugal's economy seems to be recovering, albeit tentatively. GDP grew by 1.5% in the second quarter of 2015 compared with the same period last year and unemployment is at its lowest level (12.4%) since early 2011. As a result, ratings agencies Standard & Poor's and Fitch have both recently upgraded the country's credit rating to BB+. This is despite Portugal's debt-to-GDP ratio remaining high at about 130% of GDP, amid concerns about how sustainable the financing is for the country's health service and pensions systems. During its three-year economic adjustment, Portugal saw record unemployment and youth unemployment rates, with tens of thousands of its citizens emigrating to try their luck beyond Portugal’s borders. Both parties want to convince émigrés to come back but research suggests these overtures are likely to be unsuccessful in the short term. Perhaps surprisingly, there has been no anti-austerity movement on the scale of Podemos in Spain or Syriza in Greece. Although socialist leader Costa has said he thinks the coalition has been too zealous in its dedication to austerity, he has actively distanced himself from both Syriza and Podemos. Voters do not seem to be enthused though; analysts think turnout may drop below the record low of 58% set in 2011. Lingering over Costa is the shadow of his forerunner, Jose Sócrates, who was detained late last year accused of money laundering and corruption. The former prime minister, in charge during the sovereign debt crisis, was mentioned 12 times by Coelho during a recent television debate. Attacking the incumbent government's record on austerity is also a difficult ask for the socialists, who signed up to the bailout programme before they were ousted in 2011. What do the polls say? Most polls suggest the ruling coalition are likely to get the lion's share of the seats. The latest poll tracker by Popstar put Portugal Ahead in the lead with 38.5% to the socialists’ 34.6%. The CDU trail in third place with 8.9%, and Left Bloc are on 6.9%. If that is how the voting plays out on Sunday, it is unclear whether the numbers will be enough for the ruling parties to get an outright 116-seat majority, although the latest polls suggest the gap is opening up in Portugal Ahead's favour. Were they not to achieve a majority of seats, it is unclear what the outcome would be. Costa seemed to rule out the prospect of a grand coalition with the current ruling parties except "in the event of an alien invasion". But the only other possible outcomes would be an unprecedented socialist coalition with the Communists or similar far-left party taking minority rule of the parliament. The latter step may be a risky move as investors are likely to doubt a weak government's ability to make lasting economic reforms. How does it work? The polls open at 9am local Portuguese time and close at 7pm on the mainland, after which exit polls will be published. http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2015/oct/02/portugals-election-a-guide-to-the-parties-and-politics -- António Costa >From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia António Costa GCIH ----------------------------------- Leader of the Opposition Incumbent Assumed office 28 September 2014 Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho Preceded by António José Seguro Secretary-General of the Socialist Party Incumbent Assumed office 22 November 2014 Preceded by António José Seguro Mayor of Lisbon In office 1 August 2007 - 6 April 2015 Preceded by Marina Ferreira (Acting) Succeeded by Fernando Medina Minister of State In office 12 March 2005 - 17 May 2007 President Jorge Sampaio Aníbal Cavaco Silva Prime Minister José Sócrates Minister of the Internal Administration In office 12 March 2005 - 17 May 2007 Prime Minister José Sócrates Preceded by Daniel Sanches Succeeded by Rui Pereira Minister of Justice In office 25 October 1999 - 6 April 2002 Prime Minister António Guterres Preceded by José Vera Jardim Succeeded by Celeste Cardona Minister of Parliamentary Affairs In office 25 November 1997 - 25 October 1999 Prime Minister António Guterres Preceded by Manuel Dias Loureiro Succeeded by Luís Marques Mendes Personal details Born António Luís dos Santos da Costa 17 July 1961 (age 54) Lisbon, Portugal Political party Socialist Party Spouse(s) Fernanda Tadeu (1987–present) Children Pedro Catarina Alma mater University of Lisbon ----------------------------------- António Luís dos Santos da Costa, GCIH (born 17 July 1961 in Lisbon) is a Portuguese lawyer and politician who has been Mayor of Lisbon from 2007 to 2015. Previously he was Minister of Internal Administration from 2005 to 2007. He was elected as general secretary of the Socialist Party in September 2014. António Costa is of Goan descent through his father, the writer Orlando da Costa.[1] Political career Costa was a Member of the European Parliament for the Socialist Party (PES), heading the list for the 2004 European elections after the dramatic death of top candidate António de Sousa Franco. On 20 July 2004 he was elected as one of the 14 Vice-Presidents of the European Parliament. He also served on the Committee on Civil Liberties, Justice and Home Affairs. Costa resigned as an MEP on 11 March 2005 to become Minister of State and Internal Administration in the government of José Sócrates following the 2005 national elections. Mayor of Lisbon, 2007-2015 António Costa resigned all government offices in May 2007 to become his party's candidate for the municipality of Lisbon. He was elected as Lisbon's mayor on 15 July 2007 but resigned in 2015 to become general secretary of the Socialist Party. Candidate for Prime Minister, 2015 In September 2014, the Socialist Party chose Costa as its candidate to be Prime Minister of Portugal in the 2015 national elections; in a ballot to select the party's candidate, gaining nearly 70 percent of the votes, he defeated party leader António José Seguro, who announced his resignation after the result.[2] By April 2015, he stepped down as mayor to focus on his campaign.[3] During the campaign, Costa pledged to ease back on austerity and give more disposable income back to households.[4] He proposed to boost incomes, hiring and growth in order to cut the budget deficits while scrapping austerity measures and cutting taxes, asserting that would still allow deficits to reduce in line with the Euro convergence criteria.[5] Also, he pledged to roll back a hugely unpopular hike in value added tax on restaurants and reinstate some benefits for civil servants.[6] Personal life António Costa is of partial Goan descent through his father, the writer Orlando da Costa. His mother was the writer Maria Antónia Palla. His brother by his father's second marriage is the journalist Ricardo Costa. Married in 1987 to Fernanda Maria Gonçalves Tadeu, the couple have a son and a daughter. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ant%C3%B3nio_Costa