Election fog By Eugene Correia
A fog is hanging over the elections. It is hard to see the light of day of what is really taking place and how it will eventually turn turn out. Even though candidates for some of the seats have not been released by the two national parties, the Congress and the BJP for the obvious reason of machinations going on within these parties, one can expect a couple of surprises where those who were seen as favourites have been dropped by the wayside. One thing that has emerged clearly is the kiss-and-forget rebonding of the BJP and the MGP. The alliance looks good on paper but it is hard to predict if the parties will remain in each other's embrace if the Congress falls short of majority and woos either the MGP MLAs to join the Congress or come to the same arrangement that helped the Congress to form the government. The alliances that parties get into are marriages of convenience and not solemn ones. They can last a day, months, years or till the end of the term. The wooing season is over and on one side there's the Congress-NCP front and, on the other side, the BHP-MGP front. The third front, GVP-UDGP may slip in sideways, as the combine can do a trick or two in Salcette. Some of those who were denied tickets will jump into the fray as independents, adding more flavor to the election sorpotel. The maddening world of Goan politics is a phenomenon. The state is considered an example of having perfected the art of beating the anti-defection law, which, in the first place, was introduced largely because of Goa changing its government repeatedly within short time. The game of toppling the ruling government by forces within the ruling party MLAs and opportunistic MLAs from the opposition parties is being well played in Goa. It was through shrewd maneauring by the outgoing CM Digamber Kamat that saved his government and saw it serve the full term. It was indeed a creditable performance by Kamat in the face of repeated attempts to dethrone him. With too many in his cabinet gunning for him, Kamat had to be on guard all times. It does not matter how he did it, for, as they say, a captain's job is to bring the ship safely into the harbour in stormy seas. It is still another matter that many would not give Kamat credit for his day-to-day governance and his ability to fight the ring of fire surrounding him in the form of scams and scandals. He may have turned a Nelson's eye to some of the things that hit his government as his term was coming to an end. He was partly engulfed in the mining scandal and the RP2011 fallout. Even if Congress wins, there is no guarantee that Kamat will occupy the CM's chair. At the time of writing, most of the same faces are again facing the electorate. The biggest casualty has been Victoria Fernandes. She seems bewildered why she has been left in the cold. It is hard to believe that she is naive to ask the reason for the step-motherly treatment from the party she loyally represented. She should be asking herself why she went a little wayward in dancing fox-trot with the foxy Parrikar. Dissidence is one thing that needs to be tackled from within the party and not by going to the length of making overtures to the opposition. It could not be that the "winability factor" has rubbed off her and that her replacement, the very unpredictable, the very unreasonable, the very unsphisticated, Anastacio "Babush" Monserrate, is a sure bet. The argument that Babush's wife, Jennifer, lost to Victoria narrowly and, hence, the Monserrates have a strong support may make some sense. But in the last five years, much water has flown down the Mandovi and Santa Cruz have prove to be a different case this time. If the circulating rumours of the BJP making a deal with Babush to have a weak Yatin Parekh as Parrikar's main opponent in Panaji and the BJP, in turn, conceitedly supporting Babush in Santa Cruz are true then it does not come as a major surprise. The mystique of Monserrate-Parrikar relationship is hard to unravel. Everything said and done, Santa Cruz will a constituency to be watched for high drama if Victoria's son, Rudolf, sticks to his word of challenging Babush. Babush unabashedly remarked that it is for the voters to decide if he is good or not. As days go by, the fog will be lifted and a clear picture of the whole scene will emerge. Goans will need 3-D glasses to see the actors close-up, almost at their eyes. FOOTNOTE: This piece was written yesterday. With the release of new list by the Congress, the scene has cleared a bit. It will become more transparent on March 13 when nominations close and totally transparent after the last day for withdrawals on March 17. --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Protect Goa's natural beauty Support Goa's first Tiger Reserve Sign the petition at: http://www.goanet.org/petition/petition.php ---------------------------------------------------------------------------