*~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~* { Sila lawat Laman Hizbi-Net - http://www.hizbi.net } { Hantarkan mesej anda ke: [EMAIL PROTECTED] } { Iklan barangan? Hantarkan ke [EMAIL PROTECTED] } *~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~* PAS : KE ARAH PEMERINTAHAN ISLAM YANG ADIL ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Subject: [sangkancil] Chechnya - War (fwd) Date: Tue, 27 Jun 2000 18:36:48 +0800 (MYT) From: "M.G.G. Pillai" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: Sang Kancil <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> CC: SK <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> ---------- Forwarded message ---------- Date: Mon, 26 Jun 2000 20:26:48 -0500 (CDT) From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: Chechnya - War Stratfor.com's Global Intelligence Update - 27 June 2000 __________________________________________ Know Your World http://www.stratfor.com _________________________________________ On Stratfor.com: How An Explosion in Kuwait Will Rock the Price of Oil http://www.stratfor.com/MEAF/commentary/0006270000.htm China Targets Taiwan's Wallet http://www.stratfor.com/asia/commentary/0006270117.htm _________________________________________ Chechnya: Is the War Really Over? Summary Despite its proclamations of victory, Russia is no closer to winning the war in Chechnya than it was six months ago. Col. Gen. Gennady Troshev, the military commander for the region, has virtually begged for the resources to finish the job. The Kremlin, nevertheless, has pulled out troops. In a final effort to alter the situation on the ground, Troshev took matters into his own hands on June 25 and declared an end to the war. The Russian commander appears intent on forcing Moscow to focus on the war, admit loss - or sack him and expose a serious political rift in the country's military. Analysis Russia's military commander in Chechnya has openly challenged both the military's general staff and the civilian-run Defense Ministry in Moscow over how the campaign is being waged. In the past two days contradictory statements have emerged from the military leadership, making it clear that Col. Gen. Gennady Troshev, commander of Russian troops in Chechnya, is trying to pressure Moscow into action. Troshev will force Moscow either to focus on a war it has largely laid aside, admit a loss - or sack the insubordinate commander and risk exposing a rift within the military. Chief of the General Staff Anatoly Kvashnin admitted to the press on June 24 that the military had yet to secure its grip on the breakaway Chechen republic. The next day, Troshev, who recently called on Moscow to end the war, announced that the war was over and there would be no more air or artillery attacks against the rebels. Nevertheless, in the 24 hours between June 25 and June 26, Russian planes and helicopters flew 42 combat missions. ________________________________________________________________ Would you like to see full text? http://www.stratfor.com/SERVICES/giu2000/062700.ASP ___________________________________________________________________ Troshev, stripped of resources and charged with winning a war that is no longer a priority for President Vladimir Putin, is facing an endless, bloody war. The Chechens staged more than 20 attacks per day several days last week, and continue to pose a serious challenge to Russian forces. Meanwhile, Moscow has vacillated in its official decision on whether the war is over and has pursued an aimless policy of low- grade combat. Approximately half of the original 90,000 troops have been sent home. According to Kvashnin, the current Kremlin belief is that the war has not been won. And, despite his decision to take direct control over the republic, the president has turned little apparent attention to the Chechen conflict. Troshev, traditionally one of the military's most staunch proponents of the Chechen war, no longer has even the slightest hope of a military victory in Chechnya under these conditions. However, he also has no desire to lead a drawn-out mission in Chechnya - or be saddled with the blame for a perpetually failing campaign. Several weeks ago Troshev made a public statement calling for the politicians who started the war to end it - though not by negotiations. In other words, he wanted permission to take the necessary action to win the war. When Moscow kept pulling troops out, Troshev realized he was being asked to do the impossible. Unable to ensure a military victory, he decided to send a message to Moscow by creating a false political victory. He declared that the war had been won, the army could go home, and only the Interior Ministry troops needed to remain for the mopping up operations. His move will finally force Moscow into action. None of the Kremlin's options, however, are appealing. To end the war, the Kremlin will either have to negotiate a settlement with the Chechens, send adequate troops and supplies back to its troops there or fire Troshev and continue the ambiguous status quo. The last time Troshev was fired - when he openly criticized the Kremlin's three-day cease-fire on Grozny in January - the military's support for him was so overwhelming that it would be risky for Moscow to fire him again when it needs its troops' loyalty. _______________________________________________________________ For more on Russia, see: http://www.stratfor.com/cis/countries/Russia/default.htm __________________________________________________________________ None of the Kremlin's options, however, are appealing. To end the war, the Kremlin will either have to negotiate a settlement with the Chechens, send adequate troops and supplies back to its troops there or fire Troshev and continue the ambiguous status quo. The last time Troshev was fired - when he openly criticized the Kremlin's three-day cease-fire on Grozny in January - the military's support for him was so overwhelming that it would be risky for Moscow to fire him again when it needs its troops' loyalty. Surrendering in Chechnya would undermine the image Putin has cultivated for himself; it would be political suicide for the man who built his presidency and popularity on a strong and nationalistic Russia to come so far on the battlefield only to effectively hand the republic back to the rebels. Re-deploying to Chechnya, although perhaps securing an eventual win, would drag out the war and guarantee heavy Russian losses. Troshev believes he can win the Chechen war, given the resources. But since he is being ignored, he is granting Moscow a sort of peace in Chechnya in an attempt to force the Kremlin's hand. _______________________________________________________________ For more on Chechnya, see: http://www.stratfor.com/hotspots/caspian/default.htm _______________________________________________________________ (c) 2000 WNI, Inc. _______________________________________________ SUBSCRIBE to the free, daily Global Intelligence Update. 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