ini tampaknya om sinartio salah menuliskan imil milis ini. kalo iagi...@cbn.net.id adalah imil sekretariat iagi, pak.
salam, syaiful ---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: iagi <iagi...@cbn.net.id> Date: Wed, Sep 22, 2010 at 2:09 PM Subject: FW: [oilgasprof] Can We Seal Lapindo Well To Stop Sidiardjo Areas from Sinking To: lam...@gc.itb.ac.id, mohammad syaiful <mohammadsyai...@gmail.com> ------------------------------ *From:* Franciscus B Sinartio [mailto:fbsinar...@yahoo.com] *Sent:* Wednesday, September 22, 2010 2:05 PM *To:* oilgasp...@yahoogroups.com *Cc:* iagi...@cbn.net.id *Subject:* Re: [oilgasprof] Can We Seal Lapindo Well To Stop Sidiardjo Areas from Sinking Dear all, Please let me rewrite some point that Waluyo made (and I made in other email). 1. Sidoardjo mud has much higher density and viscosity than the oil, gas and brine from the Maconda well. 2. The volume of the mud in Sidoardjo is bigger than the volume of filtrate that flows out in Maconda. the pressure is also different. In Maconda, the filtrate is flowing from pores of the reservoir. while in Sidoardjo, the mud is flowing from the mud diapir itself. mud diapir does not have matrix rock. 3. Evidence from the field shows that there is several escape points of the mud to the surface. It is not flowing from the well head only. 4. There are two mobile mud in the area. The Kalibeng, the shallow one and the Oligocene/Eocene age mud. At the beginning, the mud that flowed to the surface is the kalibeng mud (from analysis of the mud), then later it is observed that even Eocene age mud was flowing out. It means that somehow the Eocene mud has been flowing to Kalibeng mud zone (or at least we can say they are connected). The pressure of the Eocene mud can not be hold by the overlying sediment on top of Kalibeng mud. That is why there is several escape points to the surface. somebody can argue that the drilling of BP-1 that cause the connection of the two muds, maybe it is right, but we need to show evidence. 5.As Waluyo said, the Kalibeng mud has been made it to the surface in several location in East Java long long time before BP-1 was spudded. the sacry thing is if the Eocene mud flows to the kalibeng mud in that location. I hope it is not happening, and maybe one way to prevent it is to let the mud flow to the surface where it is flowed right now. This is not a good plan for people around Sidoardjo right now, but we have to think about it and make what if scenarios. Probably this is not a good idea but, this is one of what if we have to consider and calculate, and probably make a model to see if this is really going to happen. 6. this point I am mixing facts with my interpretation as geoscientist, and the memory I have from evaluation that I made in late 90s. At that time, Huffco/Lapindo Brantas wants to farm out some of their share, and I have to make evaluation of the area for another oil company. Banjar Panji "structure" has been recognized at that time. and there is split of opinion about the "build up" structure whether it is reef build up or mud volcano. Seismic Stacking velocity was used to cehck this. It was only 2D seismic data. The velocity profile shows decrease in interval velocity, as we would expect if it was a reef with gas. However, at that time we also notice that the interval velocity stays low until quite very thick interval. This phenomena gave us doubt that it was reef with gas. However, I have to admit the velocity picking in that part is not very good. We did not farm in in that block for economic reason, because we did not count Banjar panji as reef with gas. I suspect that the drilling has reached this mud diapir, but from the press release of EMP, they said they have not reached that. Discussion: Please do not say government and the professional societies has not made attempt to stop the flow. Government has spent a lot of money to try some methods until it is realized that we can not stop it anymore. Professional societies have been discussing this formally and informally using real hard data and If we really wants to help, please leave out the political issue from this discussion, and please talk what we can do to help preventing the mud to destroy environment more and to prevent from the area to collapse. Somebody earlier mentioned a method to cope with the collapse surface of the earth. This kind of discussion might be able to help us. Another discussion that can help is about how to make the limit of the mud flow in the surface. We can start with the contour of the surface. I am sure making elevation maps is not difficult with the data that exist. or even making new measurement will not take long time. then make computer simulation to make "limit" of the lateral flow in the surface in our attempt to flow it to the sea. We can not fight and restrict the mud flow, we just have to flow it to the sea. I know a lot of people will object on this, especially the ones that has land that will be affected by this plan. but sooner or later the mud will reach that land (from simulation result) and also a lot of fishermen will be affected by this. It is a complicated situation right now, but the worst thing will happen if we mix it politics. let us have a discussion to help improving the understanding of the nature there, so our friends from engineering side can make their design to prevent Sidoardjo from sinking. best regards, frank sinartio geoscientist, NOT politician. pf. I am cc ing this email to IAGI-net, since there is alot of people there with more data and experience and have been involved in preventing the sidoardjo sinking or stop the mud flow. We also have made a lot of discussion about this in this mailing list. ------------------------------ *From:* "nasser_ral...@yahoo.com.hk" <nasser_ral...@yahoo.com.hk> *To:* oilgasp...@yahoogroups.com *Sent:* Wed, September 22, 2010 3:13:49 AM *Subject:* Re: [oilgasprof] Can We Seal Lapindo Well To Stop Sidiardjo Areas from Sinking Yes bi, you're absolutely right, no one ever really intended to make it stop. Cheers, Sent from my BlackBerry® powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT ------------------------------ *From: *boga isa <boga...@yahoo.com> *Sender: *oilgasp...@yahoogroups.com *Date: *Tue, 21 Sep 2010 18:54:23 -0700 (PDT) *To: *<oilgasp...@yahoogroups.com> *ReplyTo: *oilgasp...@yahoogroups.com *Subject: *Re: [oilgasprof] Can We Seal Lapindo Well To Stop Sidiardjo Areas from Sinking Pak Waluyo..., You can say anything about the mud vulcano theory that saying this mud vulcano can not be stopped. However, you will never know the theory is true or not until you make an action to stop it (prove it). The problem is, no one ever really make an action. You may say, some people did in the past but that's not true. salam, bi ------------------------------ *From:* Waluyo <wallywal...@pertamina.com> *To:* oilgasp...@yahoogroups.com *Sent:* Wednesday, September 22, 2010 8:03:19 *Subject:* RE: [oilgasprof] Can We Seal Lapindo Well To Stop Sidiardjo Areas from Sinking There is no such technology approaches can be used to terminate the Sidoardjo Mud flow. Nowadays it must be considered as natural disaster (I do not intend to discuss the past circumstances). The fracture pattern is complicated and unpattern, no tools can detect this. The fracts are interconnecting in the surrounding potential new fract fissures. What will happen is the surrounding areas will sink up to 200 – 300 meters and shape a bowl geometry with diameter of around 4 – 6 km. This prediction is based on the similar mud volcanoes laid the east-west shale overpressure belts from Purwodadi in the west to Madura Island in the east (Kesongo, Bledukuwu, Porong ). The difference is the sinking periods, the normal (natural) mud volcanoes in term of origin vary from 500 - 800 years, did not affect social life due to slow/ little mud flow debit, even the surrounding population can adapt the situation and make benefit of it by using mud, sulphur material for making bricks and medicines (like what we see in the Dead Sea), while Sidoardjo Mud Volcane, based on the very speculative simulation, it will take 70-year-flow of mud with very high debit and affect social life significantly, because of mud rapid flow. I suggest the focus now is just concentrated on the surface plans. Mud volcanoes in southern East Java is absolutely different for oil leaks or gas kicks in the driliing operation, this cannot be comparable. Waluyo *From:* oilgasp...@yahoogroups.com [mailto:oilgasp...@yahoogroups.com] *On Behalf Of *sigit.rahar...@pertamina.com *Sent:* 21 September 2010 20:09 *To:* oilgasp...@yahoogroups.com *Subject:* Re: [oilgasprof] Can We Seal Lapindo Well To Stop Sidiardjo Areas from Sinking It's my opinion about sidoardjo accident, it's not only subsurface condition but its technical failure when completion activity or cementing its not well. Regards sr Powered by Telkomsel BlackBerry® ------------------------------ *From: *"Jean Michel Attal" <jean.mic...@ptpcm.co.id> *Sender: *oilgasp...@yahoogroups.com *Date: *Tue, 21 Sep 2010 16:48:35 +0700 *To: *<oilgasp...@yahoogroups.com> *ReplyTo: *oilgasp...@yahoogroups.com *Subject: *Re: [oilgasprof] Can We Seal Lapindo Well To Stop Sidiardjo Areas from Sinking What this article has to do with Sudiarjo guys ??? BP well had a subsea BOP problem.....that impeached the well to be shutdown... Sudiarjo.......do someone really know what is the well and its subsurface condition...??? ----- Original Message ----- *From:* Relief Lapindo <relieflapi...@yahoo.co.id> *To:* Oil and Gas Professional <oilgasp...@yahoogroups.com> *Sent:* Tuesday, September 21, 2010 4:05 PM *Subject:* [oilgasprof] Can We Seal Lapindo Well To Stop Sidiardjo Areas from Sinking * * *Cement flows for permanent plug of BP's Gulf well* By *HARRY R. WEBER | AP* *Published:* Sep 18, 2010 13:50 *Updated:* Sep 18, 2010 13:50 *NEW ORLEANS**: Crews pumped cement into BP's blown-out oil well thousands of feet below the sea bottom Saturday, working to finally seal the runaway well.* Engineers initially had planned to pump in mud before the cement, but a BP spokesman said that wasn't necessary because there was no pressure building inside the well. BP expects the well will be completely sealed — and declared permanently dead — sometime Saturday, five months after the catastrophe began April 20, when an explosion killed 11 workers, sank a drilling rig and led to the worst offshore oil spill in US history. The cement couldn't be pumped in until a relief well drill nearly 2.5 miles (four kilometers) beneath the floor of the Gulf intersected the blown-out well, which happened Thursday. The relief well was the 41st successful drilling attempt by John Wright, a contractor who led the team drilling the relief well aboard the Development Driller III vessel. Wright, who has never missed his target, told The Associated Press in August that he was looking forward to finishing the well and celebrating with a cigar and a quiet getaway with his wife. "I am ready for that cigar now," Wright said in an e-mail Friday to the AP from aboard the DDIII. The Gulf well spewed 206 million gallons of oil until the gusher was first stopped in mid-July with a temporary cap. Mud and cement were later pushed down through the top of the well, allowing the cap to be removed. But officials will not declare it dead until it is sealed from the bottom. BP PLC is a majority owner of the well and was leasing the rig from owner Transocean Ltd. The oil spill was an environmental and economic nightmare for people along the Gulf Coast that has spawned civil and criminal investigations. It cost gaffe-prone BP chief Tony Hayward his job and brought increased governmental scrutiny of the oil and gas industry, including a costly moratorium on deepwater offshore drilling that is still in place. ***** This message may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the addressee or authorized to receive this for the addressee, you must not use, copy, disclose or take any action based on this message or any information herein. 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