'They say why attack a tiger when there are so many sheep?'

Duncan Campbell, Richard Norton-Taylor and Conal Urquart
Friday July 8, 2005
The Guardian

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,3604,1523645,00.html


The strategy behind yesterday's attacks was to hit "soft" targets and cause maximum casualties rather than aim for high-profile locations or public figures. As with the Madrid train attacks, rush-hour commuters were the target, the aim being to cause as many deaths as possible but also to allow the bombers to operate undetected.

 

There was no immediate indication that suicide bombers were involved. "There is nothing to suggest anything other than conventional explosives," said Brian Paddick, the deputy assistant commissioner of the Metropolitan police, in response to the question as to whether the dead included al-Qaida members.

 

With about 1,500 police officers and senior security personnel sent to Gleneagles for the G8 summit, there was a shortage of specialist terrorism officers in the capital. This left 31,000 other Metropolitan police in London, but the bombers would have seen that the police in the capital were stretched. No bomb warnings were given, a pattern seen also in Istanbul in 2003 when the British consulate and a bank were attacked, and in Bali in 2002, when bombs exploded in a busy nightclub area.

 

While a few commentators speculated that London had become more of a target after its successful bid to stage the 2012 Olympics, it seems clear that the G8 meeting presented the prime target. The bombings would appear to have been planned far in advance with a specific date in mind, much in the way that the IRA planned for months before the 1984 Brighton bomb attack.

 

Al-Qaida's method is not to give warnings, nor to claim responsibility at first. While the IRA used to give warnings so that a limited evacuation could take place, al-Qaida has always tried to cause as many casualties as possible. The IRA used a code known to the police to claim responsibility for attacks, but al-Qaida's claims have been more difficult to authenticate, not least because a variety of different groups with ever-changing names have made claims.

 

David Capitanchik, a terrorism expert at Aberdeen University, said the rush-hour explosions bore the hallmarks of al-Qaida. "There's no doubt in my mind that this is the work of al-Qaida or one of its nodes. They would never target a military base or the G8 summit. They choose the soft targets, ordinary people going about their everyday business, to cause maximum terror. "Their philosophy is: why attack a tiger when there are so many sheep? We saw this in Bali, in Madrid and, of course, [on] 9/11. Coordinated attacks on a grand scale with ruthless disregard for human life - it's absolutely typical of al-Qaida and their allies. They don't even need to use suicide bombers for this type of attack because it's so easy to get on and off a bus or train leaving a bag with explosives behind."

 

Jonathan Eyal, director of studies at the Royal United Services Institute, said: "The attacks in London were highly coordinated and executed with some precision, the two hallmarks of al-Qaida. We do not know yet whether any suicide bombers were involved ... but it is plainly evident that scores of terrorists were engaged in planning, identifying the targets, and detonating the explosives at ... rush hour.

 

"The second difference is in the apparent political intent of the operation. While in Madrid the terrorists sought, and ultimately obtained, a change of government by timing their attacks precisely on the eve of the parliamentary elections, the aim of those who struck at London appears much more nebulous. "It is therefore likely that the planning for the London attack started well before the British elections." Al-Qaida has also discovered through its attacks in Bali and Madrid that killing large numbers of members of the public has as powerful an effect in propaganda terms as hitting the levers of power.

 

There have been terrorist explosions on London buses before. In February 1996, a 21-year-old IRA bomber, Edward O'Brien, was killed when his bomb exploded on a bus in Aldwych, central London, seriously injuring others. O'Brien was thought, however, to have been heading for the City of London or for a symbolic site such as the royal courts of justice. The IRA had earlier abandoned bombing the tube, seeing it as damaging by its alienation of the capital's floating republican population. It switched to "spectaculars".

 

Police sources indicate that the threat level now remains high but that al-Qaida usually concentrates on one large attack and then goes quiet in that area for a long time afterwards.

 

AB

[EMAIL PROTECTED]

 

"For to us will be their return; then it will be for us to call them to account." (Holy Quran 88:25-26)


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