GBs Famous Quote
Either You Are With Us OR Against Us
If You Are WITH Us We Will Turn a BLIND EYE to All Your Human Rights Abuses,
Corruption, Nepotism, Amassing of WMDs etc. But If You Are AGAINST Us We Will
Work to Bring You DOWN By HOOK or By CROOK Even Though You May Be a Just Ruler
AB
Promoting Disorder in Somalia
As long as the U.S. prefers warlords to Sharia in Somalia, hard-line
Islamists will have appeal.
January 8, 2007
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oe-ferguson8jan08,0,4025452.column?coll=la-opinion-rightrail
IF THERE WERE an American Evelyn Waugh alive today, he could ask for no
better subject matter than the recent history of Somalia. Readers of Waugh will
remember "Black Mischief," in which the Oxford-educated Emperor Seth of Azania
tries and fails to reform his African realm with the assistance of the
incorrigible lounge lizard, Basil Seal. Among my favorite passages is one that
concerns the response in London to the news of Seth's historic victory over a
rebel army:
"Any news in the paper tonight, dear?"
No, dear, nothing of interest."
Though Azania was clearly modeled more closely on Abyssinia (now Ethiopia)
than its neighbor to the north, I imagine similar responses to the latest news
from Somalia that the Supreme Council of Islamic Courts has been ousted from
power by Ethiopian forces loyal to the transitional federal government.
As with all history, the same events can be narrated in at least two mutually
contradictory ways. Here, first, is Somalia's recent history from a
neoconservative perspective:
Somalia's troubles can be traced to its partition by the incompetent European
imperial powers (especially the cheese-eating French), but the rot really set
in during the late 1970s, when the detente-obsessed Carter administration
failed to assist Gen. Mohamed Siad Barre in his war against communist Ethiopia.
After Siad's overthrow, the country descended into civil war. As a failed
state, it became a potential base for terrorist operations. In 1993, the
Clinton administration sent U.S. troops to Somalia. This was a disaster for
four reasons.
First, the intervention was authorized by a United Nations Security Council
resolution, thus compromising American freedom of action (by giving the French
a say).
Second, President Clinton reduced the size of the U.S. military presence when
he should have increased it.
Third, unforeseen operational difficulties led to the loss of two U.S. Black
Hawk helicopters and 18 U.S. military personnel, damaging American credibility
in the region. (The number of Somalis killed is not known.)
Finally, instead of seeing the intervention through, Clinton cut and ran,
even specifying in advance the departure date for U.S. forces.
These blunders had negative consequences for U.S. national security. Al Qaeda
established a base in the south of the country. The 1998 attacks on the U.S.
embassies in Kenya and Tanzania were almost certainly planned there.
Last summer, a militant Islamist organization calling itself the Supreme
Council of Islamic Courts seized power in Mogadishu. Similar to the Taliban in
its militancy, the council imposed strict Sharia law. There were prohibitions
on chewing khat, the local drug of choice, and even watching soccer games in
public places. The overall head of the council was Sheik Hassan Dahir Aweys, a
suspected Al Qaeda operative. As U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Jendayi
Frazer said in December, the council leaders were "extremists to the core."
U.S. policy has been to prevent Somalia from becoming a new front in the global
war on terror, but without overt intervention, which could be politically
problematic. Accordingly, the United States provided logistical naval support
to the recent Ethiopian invasion and has announced an aid package of $17
million to assist the new transitional federal government of Prime Minister Ali
Mohammed Gedi.
As Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Thursday: "The Somali people have
a historic opportunity to begin to move beyond two decades of warlordism,
extreme violence and humanitarian suffering."
Now let me offer you the alternative reading of events.
Long before the arrival of European imperialism, Somalia was a country
plagued by warfare. There were recurrent attempts by Ethiopia to subjugate the
Somalis. There were also frequent feuds between the various Somali clans
themselves, like the Hawiye clan, which has its base in Mogadishu. The new
prime minister is in fact a Hawiye, but has forfeited much credibility by
acting as an Ethiopian puppet. In the eyes of many Somalis, recent events are
just the latest of many wars with Ethiopia. That is why the recent rout of the
Islamists is unlikely to be the last act in the Somali tragedy.
The Islamists offered Somalia order; not a Western order, to be sure, but
order nonetheless. Under their rule, the price of an AK-47 in the Mogadishu
markets slumped to $15, a sure sign that the warlords were being forced to
downsize their militias. Young men no longer roared through the streets in the
Mad Max-style vehicles known locally as "technicals" trucks mounted with
antiaircraft guns. Some were returning to school and university. Others were
getting jobs with private electricity companies and airlines. Internet cafes
were beginning to displace militia training camps. Kalashnikovs were being
traded in for mobile phones.
Now, with the Islamists gone, the most likely scenario is a return of the
warlords. Worse, the Islamists may now revert to the tactic of suicide bombing
to destabilize the new government. As has happened in Afghanistan, the
overthrow of an Islamist government will be followed not by a new order but by
the old disorder.
As I said, it would take a satirist of Evelyn Waugh's genius to do justice to
this story to lay bare all the unintended consequences of yet another
enforced regime change. At least in the Cold War, "our son of a bitch" the
local anti-communist strongman could be counted on to impose a brutal kind of
order. Now, in the war on terror, the United States would rather see a country
torn apart by multiple sons-of-bitches than ruled under Sharia law.
But the more U.S. foreign policy promotes anarchy instead of order, the
stronger the Islamists' appeal will be. And the darker the shade of mischief
that will ensue.
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
AB [EMAIL PROTECTED]
First They Came for the EXTREMIST, FUNDAMENTALIST & MODERATE Muslims. And I
DIDNT Speak Out Because I Wasn't An Extremist, Fundamentalist or a Moderate
Muslim. Then FINALLY They Came for Me the NON-PRACTICING Muslim And NO Muslims
Were Left to Speak Out for ME.
---------------------------------
Got a little couch potato?
Check out fun summer activities for kids.
