ICANN Directors Nominations (follow up)
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CANDIDATES:
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This past Saturday 19 Aug 2000 I made a number of predictions regarding
ICANN directors nominations - which see;
http://lists.netsol.com/cgi-bin/wa?A2=ind0008&L=DOMAIN-POLICY&P=R34370
I am pleased to say that the candidates I selected have all been nominated
with the exception of two candidates in the Asia Pacific region - being
Jong Ho Kim who currently holds 587 votes and Kuo-Wei Wu with 715 votes.
I have also added Berend Schuitema from the African Region with 9 votes (7
to qualify) and Dmitri Bourkov from Europe with 536 votes.
PROJECTIONS:
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On Friday, 1 Sep 2000 I provided some straight line projections which
estimated the total validated/verified applications would be some 82,839
or 52% of total applications - which see;
http://lists.netsol.com/cgi-bin/wa?A2=ind0009&L=DOMAIN-POLICY&P=R82
These projections were not met - I expect they will close nominations with
some 77,000 validated applications which represents 49% of total
applications for membership (close - but no cigar).
Based on this information I can say with certainty that large blocks of
the @large are controlled - and at least a good portion are bogus
registrations.
DISCUSSION:
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At this time the only region I can see with any chance of beating the
ICANN candidate selections is Europe and maybe Latin America. This is
based on the total vote count per region refelected as a percentage of
validated members. Europe is at 36% while Latin America squeeks by at
28%. If candidates in those two regions "make deals" with each other and
can deliver the vote - then the probability of a win against an ICANN
selected director is possible. I can not say the same for other regions.
There has also been considerable discussion on numerous lists with respect
to the European region being taken over by hackers. I have found many of
these discussion somewhat humourous. I feel Europe and the organizational
level there is not even close to a well organized campaign. It is
"organized" but not in the professional way of political parties. I find
many of these accusation of takeover and highjacking to be mainly bogus
and ill informed speculation.
The organizational efforts deployed in Europe should be taken as a minimum
requirement guide for future candidates. Or in plain language - if you
sit on your ass and play with yourself you'll get a warm fuzzy feeling -
but don't expect to win this election.
CURRENT STATS, VOTES & PROJECTIONS:
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Date / Desc Africa Pacific Europe Latin North Totals
18-Aug 171 22124 14803 2130 7864 47092
22-Aug 197 27513 16787 2494 8406 55397
23-Aug 212 28575 17888 2749 8804 58228
25-Aug 225 29481 18660 2838 8956 60160
28-Aug 256 31981 20339 3144 9584 65304
30-Aug 273 33135 21051 3248 9812 67519
1-Sep 281 34164 21626 3324 10009 69404
4-Sep 302 35373 22544 3435 10233 71887
5-Sep 308 36006 22870 3492 10346 73022
6-Sep 312 36831 23123 3519 10482 74267
7-Sep 314 37765 23366 3554 10615 75614
Total Verified apps 314 37765 23366 3554 10615 75614
Total membership apps 787 93782 35942 6486 21596 158593
% total Apps verified 40% 40% 65% 55% 49% 48%
Change per Region 143 15641 8563 1424 2751 28522
Change per day 7 782 428 71 138 1426
Projected Verified apps 321 38547 23794 3625 10753 77040
% of total Apps 41% 41% 66% 56% 50% 49%
Total Votes 66 4750 8483 1003 2012 16314
% of validated members 21% 13% 36% 28% 19% 22%
% of total Apps 8% 5% 24% 15% 9% 10%
2% of validated 7 756 468 72 213
NOMINATED CANDIDATES:
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Region Name Nflag Votes % Validated
AFRICA Amin Amor N 9 2.9%
AFRICA Calvin Browne N 48 15.3%
AFRICA Berend Schuitema N Add 9 2.9%
ASIA Hong Jie li N 1153 3.1%
EUROPE Andy Mueller-Maguhn N 2692 11.5%
EUROPE Lutz Donnerhacke N 859 3.7%
EUROPE Jeanette Hofmann N 1185 5.1%
EUROPE Dmitri Bourkov N Add 536 2.3%
LATAMER Claudio Silva Menezes N 865 24.3%
NRAMER Karl Auerbach N 575 5.4%
NRAMER Barbara Simons N 429 4.0%
NRAMER Emerson Tiller N 373 3.5%
Notes on NFlag: N (Nominated)
N Add (Nominated and added later)
regards
Joe Baptista
http://www.dot.god/
dot.GOD Hostmaster
+1 (805) 753-8697
