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http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d0cb5650-33f0-11e2-9ce7-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2CxbK3bof
November 21, 2012 5:21 pm
Syria loses influence among Palestinians
By Roula Khalaf in London
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is usually among the first to rush out
loud rhetoric during an Israeli onslaught on the Hamas-held Gaza Strip.
Styling himself as the only genuine Arab defender of the Palestinians –
and deriding his peers as ambivalent, if not outright Israeli
accomplices – the Syrian leader has often exploited the Arab cause to
shore up his domestic standing.
Over the past week, however, as Israel launched an offensive against
Hamas, Syria’s voice has been faint – and few would be listening in any
case. Not only is Mr Assad accused of waging war against his own people
in his battle for survival but he has also lost his Palestinian influence.
Mr Assad is no longer the patron of Hamas, a Sunni Islamist organisation
which moved its headquarters out of Damascus after the Syrian uprising.
Khaled Meshaal, the Hamas leader, has openly backed his Sunni brethren
in their battle to oust Mr Assad’s minority Alawite regime. Mr Meshaal’s
attitude, and his group’s increased co-ordination with Egypt – which
secured a ceasefire on Wednesday – has also put Hamas at odds with Iran,
which Israel says has been a big financier and weapons supplier.
On Wednesday, in an apparent attempt by Damascus to remain relevant,
Syrian media said a Palestinian militant group based in the country, the
Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, had claimed
responsibility for an explosion on a bus in Tel Aviv.
But the weakening Syrian role reflects the gradual realignments in
Middle East politics after the Arab uprisings: the so-called resistance
axis – led by Iran and including Syria, Lebanon’s Hizbollah and Hamas –
has been undermined alongside the re-emergence of a more traditional
Egyptian power centre, in alliance with other Sunni states. This could
affect the evolution of Hamas and its relations with Israel.
Hizbollah, the Shia militant group, has looked increasingly isolated as
it has stuck by Mr Assad and seen its Palestinian ally moving more
closely into the Sunni Arab camp.
Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, the Hizbollah chief, has insisted that Iran,
Syria and Hizbollah have not abandoned Hamas. But in an apparent effort
to put pressure on Cairo, he called for the Egyptian-Gaza border to be
opened and rockets and arms sent to the militants. “The real Arabism and
the genuine Islam is that Arab countries send arms to Gaza,” he said in
a speech.
Michael Williams, a visiting fellow at London’s Chatham House think-tank
and a former senior UN diplomat in the region, said: “The axis of
resistance is decisively ruptured. Hamas has bowed out and Syria is on
its way out. That leaves a Shia alliance of Iran and Hizbollah.”
Hamas, a Sunni organisation and offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, was
always an uncomfortable partner in the axis of resistance, its relations
with Iran, in particular, driven by necessity as much as a shared
rejection of the Middle East peace process.
Egypt under Hosni Mubarak, its ousted president, along with Jordan and
the Gulf states, was the champion of the pro-western Mahmoud Abbas and
his Palestinian Authority in the West Bank which is committed to the
peace process.
The Arab world, however, has been slowly reclaiming Hamas, as
illustrated by a delegation that visited Gaza on Tuesday to show
solidarity, and, most significantly, in the central role that Cairo,
governed by Islamist president Mohamed Morsi, played in negotiating a
ceasefire.
“No one can ignore the changes in the Middle East or Hamas’s shift to
the Sunni camp, now led by Egypt, Turkey and other Arab spring
countries,” said Mokhemra Abu Saada, a professor of political science at
al-Azhar University in Gaza.
The regional shifts, however, are still at an early and tentative stage.
Israel continues to blame Iran for encouraging Hamas to step up its
rocket fire. As Mr Nasrallah also pointed out in his speech, it is Iran
and Syria who have armed Hamas, suggesting that he sees their role as
essential.
Tehran, moreover, has links to smaller armed Islamist groups in Gaza.
The Iranian foreign ministry this week shrugged off reports of a rift
with Hamas and said Tehran also stood by Palestinians, especially “Hamas
and Islamic groups”.
But if Hamas is finding its way through the new political order in the
region, with a bolstered Arab legitimacy, analysts said the long-term
consequences might not be detrimental to Israel.
Mr Abu Saada said despite the most recent conflict, Hamas’s
“incorporation in the Arab system” could drive it to moderate its views
on the Jewish state, which it has yet to recognise, because its
supporters, while sympathetic, are not in favour of war.
“Violence is embarrassing for Egypt,” he said. “It would build public
pressure on Morsi [the president] who does not want to lose the
relationship with the US and is not interested in war.”
Yezid Sayigh, an analyst at the Carnegie Middle East Centre think-tank
in Beirut, said Hamas might be approaching a point similar to that of
the Palestine Liberation Organisation in the 1970s, when it was
recognised by Arabs as the representative of the Palestinians on the
understanding that it moderated its views.
“Hamas is starting to gain recognition and to break the diplomatic and
political blockade but in order for them to capitalise on this they have
to be willing to engage in a clear understanding that they go into a
political process, commit to not using violence even if they don’t go as
far as [officially] to recognise Israel,” he said.
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