How Could IPhone MMS Crash AT&T's Network?

http://www.pcworld.com/businesscenter/article/172624/how_could_iphone_mm
s_crash_atandts_network.html

All the hand wringing over the Friday launch of MMS (Multimedia
Messaging Service) on AT&T iPhones may be misplaced for a service that
hasn't been a huge success on most other phones.

Apple let down iPhone watchers and owners when it announced in June that
iPhone 3.0 software would support MMS but implied that AT&T would not
yet allow it. The service launch was delayed several times, with
exclusive carrier AT&T citing the need to make sure its network was
ready. The feature will finally become generally available on AT&T
iPhones on Friday when iTunes delivers a carrier settings update for the
wildly popular phone. The carrier has said it expects "record volumes"
of MMS traffic after the launch. MMS lets people send pictures, audio
recordings, video clips or contact information along with an SMS (Short
Message Service) message.

However, the service in question has been out for years on other
handsets and hasn't exactly taken the mobile world by storm. In 2008,
MMS made up just 2.5 percent of all messages sent from phones worldwide,
meaning about 97.5 percent were SMS text messages, according to ABI
Research. ABI expects the MMS share to grow to just 4.5 percent by 2014.

Given the amount of data that iPhone fans are already using on AT&T's
network, for Web browsing, video, e-mail and social networking, it would
take quite a popularity breakthrough for MMS to drag down the
infrastructure through sheer traffic, analysts said. However, the
carrier's fears in one respect may have been justified, said ABI analyst
Dan Shey.

Several factors have dampened the popularity of MMS, according to
analysts and industry observers. A big one is that the messages still
don't always get through.

"Interoperability between carriers has always been an issue, and that's
why MMS usage hasn't really taken off," Shey said. Delivering multimedia
content from one phone and one network to another can be complicated
with photos and gets even more involved when it comes to video, with
large file sizes and multiple available formats, he said. What's
attached in an MMS, 98 percent of the time, is just a picture, he said.

Another problem has been the complicated user interfaces on some phones
and networks, which at times have forced senders to go through several
steps to attach their content and recipients to go to a link within an
SMS and provide a password along the way. The iPhone streamlines this
process for iPhone users but not necessarily for the recipients of their
messages.

The economics of MMS may not be attractive for either users or service
providers. Even though each message uses a lot more network capacity
than an SMS, which is limited to 160 characters of text, they typically
count the same as an SMS against a bundled plan, Shey said. As a result,
carriers haven't had an incentive to market the capability, he said.

And users of advanced phones now have alternatives to being charged for
sharing content with their friends. For example, it's possible to post a
photo to a Facebook page directly through Facebook's iPhone application.

Carriers will eventually figure out a way to monetize user sharing of
content, but it probably won't be through MMS, said Mark Jacobstein, CEO
of iSkoot, at the Mobilize conference earlier this month in San
Francisco. Jacobstein is a serial entrepreneur in the mobile data world
whose current company develops a variety of phone software. "The problem
is not demand but implementation," he said.

The increase in MMS traffic from iPhone users isn't likely to put a much
greater strain on AT&T's network, said In-Stat infrastructure analyst
Allen Nogee. The carrier's current woes stem from having to deploy new
base stations for 3G while selling a hugely popular handset that
subscribers love to use for data, he said. Most customers won't just
send one big MMS after another and overload the network, Nogee said.

However, AT&T may have had good reason to make sure its infrastructure
was ready for MMS, ABI's Shey said. Even if the new feature doesn't
swallow huge amounts of overall capacity, all those messages eventually
need to be separated out and sent through an exchange point called an
MMSC (MMS service center). AT&T's engineers may have set up that
infrastructure for a smaller number of messages and then faced the
prospect of MMS becoming possible on all iPhones.

If they learned anything from the experience of watching data traffic
grow exponentially after the iPhone itself hit the market, they may have
wanted to beef up the MMS portion of their system before the new feature
hit all those phones, Shey said.

"All operators are just fanatic about ensuring that their network is not
overutilized," Shey said. "I'm sure the network folks got involved and
said, 'We'd better test this.'"
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