Re: estimation of number of DFZ IPv4 routes at peak in the future

2011-03-13 Thread Christopher Morrow
On Sat, Mar 12, 2011 at 8:44 PM, Jeff Wheeler j...@inconcepts.biz wrote: On Sat, Mar 12, 2011 at 7:27 PM, William Herrin b...@herrin.us wrote: That must be my mistake then, because I thought the exercise was building it in a way that it stays built for the maximum practical number of years.

Re: estimation of number of DFZ IPv4 routes at peak in the future

2011-03-13 Thread Jeff Wheeler
On Sun, Mar 13, 2011 at 1:27 PM, Christopher Morrow morrowc.li...@gmail.com wrote: there's probably a different need in TOR and BO/SOHO locations than core devices, eh? In today's backbone, this is certainly true. Feature-driven upgrades shouldn't be much of a factor for P boxes today, because

Re: estimation of number of DFZ IPv4 routes at peak in the future

2011-03-13 Thread Christopher Morrow
On Sun, Mar 13, 2011 at 2:11 PM, Jeff Wheeler j...@inconcepts.biz wrote: On Sun, Mar 13, 2011 at 1:27 PM, Christopher Morrow morrowc.li...@gmail.com wrote: there's probably a different need in TOR and BO/SOHO locations than core devices, eh? In today's backbone, this is certainly true.  

Re: estimation of number of DFZ IPv4 routes at peak in the future

2011-03-13 Thread Jeff Wheeler
On Sun, Mar 13, 2011 at 3:42 PM, Christopher Morrow morrowc.li...@gmail.com wrote: not everyone drinks the mpls koolaide... so it's not always 'just a label switch' and depending upon how large your PE mesh is, there are If it isn't just a label switch, then features can (and sometimes do)

Re: estimation of number of DFZ IPv4 routes at peak in the future

2011-03-13 Thread William Herrin
On Sun, Mar 13, 2011 at 5:40 PM, Jeff Wheeler j...@inconcepts.biz wrote: On Sun, Mar 13, 2011 at 3:42 PM, Christopher Morrow morrowc.li...@gmail.com wrote: not need that info, but the edge likely does, yes? Have 100g customers today? planning on having them in the next ~8/12/18 months? If

Re: estimation of number of DFZ IPv4 routes at peak in the future

2011-03-12 Thread William Herrin
On Sat, Mar 12, 2011 at 2:17 AM, Joel Jaeggli joe...@bogus.com wrote: I'm super-tired of the but tcams are an expensive non-commodity part not subject to economies of scale. this has been repeated ad nauseam since the raws workshop if not before. You don't have to build a lookup engine around a

Re: estimation of number of DFZ IPv4 routes at peak in the future

2011-03-12 Thread Vadim Antonov
On Sat, 2011-03-12 at 08:00 -0500, William Herrin wrote: You're either building a bunch of big TCAMs or a radix trie engine with sufficient parallelism to get the same aggregate lookup rate. If there's a materially different 3rd way to build a FIB, one that works at least as well, feel free

Re: estimation of number of DFZ IPv4 routes at peak in the future

2011-03-12 Thread Joel Jaeggli
On 3/12/11 5:00 AM, William Herrin wrote: On Sat, Mar 12, 2011 at 2:17 AM, Joel Jaeggli joe...@bogus.com wrote: I'm super-tired of the but tcams are an expensive non-commodity part not subject to economies of scale. this has been repeated ad nauseam since the raws workshop if not before. You

Re: estimation of number of DFZ IPv4 routes at peak in the future

2011-03-12 Thread William Herrin
On Sat, Mar 12, 2011 at 4:43 PM, Joel Jaeggli joe...@bogus.com wrote: On 3/12/11 5:00 AM, William Herrin wrote: I'll be convinced it can be done for less than 2x cost when someone actually does it for less than 2x cost. part of the exercise is neither building nor buying the capacity before

Re: estimation of number of DFZ IPv4 routes at peak in the future

2011-03-12 Thread Jeff Wheeler
On Sat, Mar 12, 2011 at 7:27 PM, William Herrin b...@herrin.us wrote: That must be my mistake then, because I thought the exercise was building it in a way that it stays built for the maximum practical number of years. When it has to be touched again (or tweaked if it So when you upgrade a

Re: estimation of number of DFZ IPv4 routes at peak in the future

2011-03-11 Thread William Herrin
On Fri, Mar 11, 2011 at 6:39 PM, Justin Krejci jkre...@usinternet.com wrote: On Wed, 2011-03-09 at 09:32 -0500, John Curran wrote: On Mar 9, 2011, at 12:43 AM, Majdi S. Abbas wrote:    I suspect that as we reach exhaustion, more people will be forced to break space out of their provider's v4

Re: estimation of number of DFZ IPv4 routes at peak in the future

2011-03-11 Thread Owen DeLong
On Mar 11, 2011, at 5:43 PM, William Herrin wrote: On Fri, Mar 11, 2011 at 6:39 PM, Justin Krejci jkre...@usinternet.com wrote: On Wed, 2011-03-09 at 09:32 -0500, John Curran wrote: On Mar 9, 2011, at 12:43 AM, Majdi S. Abbas wrote: I suspect that as we reach exhaustion, more people will

Re: estimation of number of DFZ IPv4 routes at peak in the future

2011-03-11 Thread William Herrin
On Fri, Mar 11, 2011 at 8:53 PM, Owen DeLong o...@delong.com wrote: On Mar 11, 2011, at 5:43 PM, William Herrin wrote: Finally, get mad at your respective router manufacturers for engineering obsolescence into their product line by declining to give you the option. The option of $60,000 line

Re: estimation of number of DFZ IPv4 routes at peak in the future

2011-03-11 Thread Joel Jaeggli
I'm super-tired of the but tcams are an expensive non-commodity part not subject to economies of scale. this has been repeated ad nauseam since the raws workshop if not before. You don't have to build a lookup engine around a tcam and in fact you can use less power doing so even though you

Re: estimation of number of DFZ IPv4 routes at peak in the future

2011-03-09 Thread Randy Bush
i am more of a pessimist. i suspect that there will be enough v4-only destinations out there that multi-homed enterprises fronting onto dual-stack backbones will announce teenie bits of v4 so they can nat64. that teenie bit better be part of a larger aggregate that can reach at least one of

Re: estimation of number of DFZ IPv4 routes at peak in the future

2011-03-09 Thread Joel Jaeggli
On 3/9/11 12:35 AM, Randy Bush wrote: i am more of a pessimist. i suspect that there will be enough v4-only destinations out there that multi-homed enterprises fronting onto dual-stack backbones will announce teenie bits of v4 so they can nat64. that teenie bit better be part of a larger

Re: estimation of number of DFZ IPv4 routes at peak in the future

2011-03-09 Thread Randy Bush
one of these curves is steeper than the other. http://www.cidr-report.org/cgi-bin/plota?file=%2fvar%2fdata%2fbgp%2fv6%2fas2.0%2fbgp-active%2etxtdescr=Active%20BGP%20entries%20%28FIB%29ylabel=Active%20BGP%20entries%20%28FIB%29with=step

Re: estimation of number of DFZ IPv4 routes at peak in the future

2011-03-09 Thread Antonio Querubin
On Wed, 9 Mar 2011, Joel Jaeggli wrote: one of these curves is steeper than the other. http://www.cidr-report.org/cgi-bin/plota?file=%2fvar%2fdata%2fbgp%2fv6%2fas2.0%2fbgp-active%2etxtdescr=Active%20BGP%20entries%20%28FIB%29ylabel=Active%20BGP%20entries%20%28FIB%29with=step

Re: estimation of number of DFZ IPv4 routes at peak in the future

2011-03-09 Thread Arturo Servin
On 9 Mar 2011, at 07:18, Joel Jaeggli wrote: one of these curves is steeper than the other. That's what we wanted for the first one.

Re: estimation of number of DFZ IPv4 routes at peak in the future

2011-03-09 Thread John Curran
On Mar 9, 2011, at 12:43 AM, Majdi S. Abbas wrote: On Wed, Mar 09, 2011 at 12:44:05PM +0900, Randy Bush wrote: i am more of a pessimist. i suspect that there will be enough v4-only destinations out there that multi-homed enterprises fronting onto dual-stack backbones will announce teenie

Re: estimation of number of DFZ IPv4 routes at peak in the future

2011-03-09 Thread Joel Jaeggli
On 3/9/11 1:55 AM, Antonio Querubin wrote: On Wed, 9 Mar 2011, Joel Jaeggli wrote: one of these curves is steeper than the other.

RE: estimation of number of DFZ IPv4 routes at peak in the future

2011-03-09 Thread George Bonser
the last serious satainc phylters died in 2001. salesmarketing pressure. when eyecandy.com is behind a /27, or your sm folk sell to weenie.foo who wants you to announce their /26, it will be the end of the /24 barrier. Sure, you can sell to someone who wants to announce a /26 and you can

Re: estimation of number of DFZ IPv4 routes at peak in the future

2011-03-09 Thread Owen DeLong
On Mar 9, 2011, at 4:06 AM, Arturo Servin wrote: On 9 Mar 2011, at 07:18, Joel Jaeggli wrote: one of these curves is steeper than the other. That's what we wanted for the first one.

Re: estimation of number of DFZ IPv4 routes at peak in the future

2011-03-09 Thread George Herbert
On Wed, Mar 9, 2011 at 9:28 AM, Owen DeLong o...@delong.com wrote: On Mar 9, 2011, at 4:06 AM, Arturo Servin wrote: On 9 Mar 2011, at 07:18, Joel Jaeggli wrote: one of these curves is steeper than the other.       That's what we wanted for the first one.

Re: estimation of number of DFZ IPv4 routes at peak in the future

2011-03-09 Thread Arturo Servin
http://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=enas_sdt=0,5cluster=6058676534328717115 @article{cittadini2010evolution, title={{Evolution of Internet Address Space Deaggregation: Myths and Reality}}, author={Cittadini, L. and Muhlbauer, W. and Uhlig, S. and Bush, R. and Fran{\c{c}}ois, P.

Re: estimation of number of DFZ IPv4 routes at peak in the future

2011-03-09 Thread Randy Bush
The implication of this statement would seem to be that the reason the routing tables are growing is due primarily to allocations and not deaggregation (e.g., for traffic engineering). Does anyone have any actual data to corroborate or refute this? Luca Cittadini, Wolfgang Mühlbauer, Steve

estimation of number of DFZ IPv4 routes at peak in the future

2011-03-08 Thread Mikael Abrahamsson
Hi. We had an interesting discussion the other day at work. We were speculating on how many DFZ IPv4 routes there would be at peak in the future before it starts to decline again due to less IPv4 usage. The current number is around 350k, and my personal estimation is that it would grow by

Re: estimation of number of DFZ IPv4 routes at peak in the future

2011-03-08 Thread Randy Bush
i am more of a pessimist. i suspect that there will be enough v4-only destinations out there that multi-homed enterprises fronting onto dual-stack backbones will announce teenie bits of v4 so they can nat64. randy

Re: estimation of number of DFZ IPv4 routes at peak in the future

2011-03-08 Thread William Herrin
On Tue, Mar 8, 2011 at 10:17 PM, Mikael Abrahamsson swm...@swm.pp.se wrote: We had an interesting discussion the other day at work. We were speculating on how many DFZ IPv4 routes there would be at peak in the future before it starts to decline again due to less IPv4 usage. My guess therefore

Re: estimation of number of DFZ IPv4 routes at peak in the future

2011-03-08 Thread Jared Mauch
On Mar 8, 2011, at 10:17 PM, Mikael Abrahamsson wrote: My guess therefore is a peak around 450-500k IPv4 DFZ routes and that this would happen in around 3-5 years. I wanted to record this for posterity. What is your guess, any why? I think it'll end up around the same range, mostly due to

Re: estimation of number of DFZ IPv4 routes at peak in the future

2011-03-08 Thread Owen DeLong
You have ignored the probability of disaggregation due to IP trading markets, especially given the wild-west nature of the APNIC transfer policy. Many of the legacy blocks will get dramatically disaggregated in the likely market which could take the DFZ well beyond 500k routes. It will be very

Re: estimation of number of DFZ IPv4 routes at peak in the future

2011-03-08 Thread George Herbert
On Tue, Mar 8, 2011 at 8:40 PM, Owen DeLong o...@delong.com wrote: You have ignored the probability of disaggregation due to IP trading markets, especially given the wild-west nature of the APNIC transfer policy. Many of the legacy blocks will get dramatically disaggregated in the likely

Re: estimation of number of DFZ IPv4 routes at peak in the future

2011-03-08 Thread Majdi S. Abbas
On Wed, Mar 09, 2011 at 12:44:05PM +0900, Randy Bush wrote: i am more of a pessimist. i suspect that there will be enough v4-only destinations out there that multi-homed enterprises fronting onto dual-stack backbones will announce teenie bits of v4 so they can nat64. I'll take this

Re: estimation of number of DFZ IPv4 routes at peak in the future

2011-03-08 Thread Mikael Abrahamsson
On Tue, 8 Mar 2011, Owen DeLong wrote: On Mar 8, 2011, at 7:17 PM, Mikael Abrahamsson wrote: last allocations being seen in the remaining RIR normal allocations would be smaller than before plus de-aggregation of space as people sell or lease subspace of their allocations. You have

Re: estimation of number of DFZ IPv4 routes at peak in the future

2011-03-08 Thread Randy Bush
btw, this discussion should not forget that the load on routers is churn and number of paths, not just prefix count. randy

RE: estimation of number of DFZ IPv4 routes at peak in the future

2011-03-08 Thread George Bonser
From: Randy Bush Sent: Tuesday, March 08, 2011 7:44 PM To: Mikael Abrahamsson Cc: nanog@nanog.org Subject: Re: estimation of number of DFZ IPv4 routes at peak in the future i am more of a pessimist. i suspect that there will be enough v4-only destinations out there that multi-homed