Frank C. Carlucci, secretary of defense from 1987 to 1989, is chairman emeritus of the Carlyle Group
The War We Haven't Finished
NY Times | February 22, 2005 | FRANK C.
CARLUCCI
WASHINGTON isn't exactly short of foreign policy priorities these days, but before rushing into a list of new tasks for the president's second term, I would like to suggest sorting out an old one: Kosovo.
The world reacted in horror six years ago when the Serbian regime of Slobodan Milosevic embarked on an ethnic cleansing operation against Kosovo's Albanians, forcing 700,000 people, nearly half the population, to flee the province. Reports of massacres and images of mileslong lines of refugees fleeing into neighboring Albania and Macedonia compelled the world to act. The NATO air campaign against Serbia that followed convinced Belgrade to give up its brutal assault, and Kosovo was put under United Nations administration.
And so it remains to this day: an international protectorate, legally part of Serbia, but with a 90 percent ethnic Albanian population that would sooner go to war than submit to Belgrade's rule. Kosovars seek an independent state, and the seemingly endless delays over final-status talks are only causing deep frustration and resentment.
Their discontent is not simply a matter of hurt pride over national sovereignty; Kosovo's unsettled international status has serious repercussions for daily life. Because it is under United Nations administration, Kosovo is in economic limbo: it cannot be part of the international bank transfer system, it is ineligible for sovereign lending from development banks, and it can attract few foreign investors. With 70 percent unemployment, the province is being starved of the commerce it badly needs.
Perhaps most important, the continuing uncertainty creates widespread insecurity among Kosovo's ethnic Albanians, who live with a constant sense of dread that they could return to Serb rule. It is essentially a siege mentality, and it could explode into violence at any time.
This is what happened last March, when Albanians rioted, killing at least 20 and destroying hundreds of Serbian houses and churches. Of course, mounting frustration cannot excuse or justify such a rampage, but the events clearly demonstrated that United Nations administration is not working.
With spring approaching, a repeat performance looks increasingly likely. But this time it would probably be far worse: Kosovo's Serbs may well ask Belgrade to intervene to protect them, which could result in a return to open war in the Balkans. Under these circumstances, the United Nations mission would probably evacuate, leaving behind the remnants of the NATO-led military force and the Kosovo Police Service to maintain security. These forces are not up to the job, and the chaos would be horrible.
How can we avoid such a nightmare? The only solution that makes long-term sense is full independence for Kosovo, and the only question that remains is how to get there.
The best approach would be for Washington and its five partners in the so-called Contact Group - Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Russia - to initiate a process for a final settlement, or Kosovo Accord. (Something along these lines was proposed last month by the International Crisis Group, an independent conflict prevention organization.)
First the powers would have to establish a timeline and some ground rules. The goal would have to be independence for the entire province, and all other options - partition, or union with Albania or slivers of other neighboring states where ethnic Albanians live - would be off the table from the outset. Given the events of last March, the Kosovo Albanians would be informed that that the pace of their progress toward independence will be set by their treatment of Serbs and other minorities.
The drafting process could begin as soon as the United Nations completes its assessment of the Kosovo government this year. Then the Kosovars could start writing a constitution. The new state would have to agree to a few strong guarantees to protect the rights of its minorities - including the presence of international judges on its higher courts and a multinational monitoring presence. Eventually, an international conference and a referendum within Kosovo would add the final stamps of approval. If all goes well, this could be wrapped up by mid-2006.
Getting Security Council approval, or even unanimity within the Contact Group, for this approach could prove tough. Russia sees itself as a protector of Serbia, and could thwart the process. The United States should counter by bringing along as many countries in the European Union as are willing to join us in formally recognizing an independent Kosovo, and hope the Russians accede to the majority will.
It's understandable, considering the events of the last four years, that Kosovo has been left hanging. But the situation is simply too tense to wait around forever.
Frank C. Carlucci, secretary of defense from 1987 to
1989, is chairman emeritus of the Carlyle Group, an investment firm.
