http://blogs.harvardbusiness.org/haque/2009/04/dubya.html

<http://blogs.harvardbusiness.org/haque/>Umair Haque Edge Economy

Is Obama the Financial Dubya?

5:34 AM Thursday April 9, 2009

"As part of its sweeping plan to purge banks of troublesome assets, 
the Obama administration is encouraging several large investment 
companies to create the financial-crisis equivalent of war bonds: 
bailout funds."

***

"As well as BlackRock and Pimco, Legg Mason, another big mutual fund 
company, and BNY Mellon Asset Management, a big asset manager, have 
said they are interested in starting retail investment funds to 
participate in the government's plan.

For the investment managers, the benefits are potentially large. 
These big firms can charge healthy fees to investors for taking part. 
They will also have the marketing prestige of being the firms the 
government turns to at a time of crisis to help sort out the 
country's financial mess."

<http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/09/business/09fund.html>Now, I'm 
pretty slow sometimes. So let me ask some stupid questions.

Is there a reason that people can't just buy equity and debt in the 
plan, well, directly?
Is there a reason middlemen get a guaranteed profit in a new segment?
Is there a reason that only one side of the table is represented in 
this deal - the sell-side?
How come the benefit to taxpayers is still not a part of the calculus?

Here's the only reason I can come up with - and it's a lot worse than 
<http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2009/04/from_japan_to_america_the_triu.cfm>America
 
2009 = Japan 1989.

Obama is the new Dubya. When it comes to finance at least, the 
parallels are way (way) too striking to ignore.

Consider:

1) Obama has discarded the advice of nearly every eminent economist 
in the world.
2) To go with the advice of "his" team.
3) Because access to him is apparently controlled tightly by Summers 
and Geithner.
4) So Obama is bubbled from the growing disbelief at his lack of 
economic literacy.
5) A plan that is likely to result in 
<http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2009/0401_taxpayers_young.aspx>massive 
looting is blindly sailing ahead.
6) Policy is clearly biased in favour of those who can afford to buy 
it. Hence, banks win - again.
7) And it doesn't matter 
<http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/04/bank-credit-growth-drops-precipitously.html>if
 
policy works or not - so we get perverse policy after policy.

You know what? Hiring some kids to revolutionize media is how Obama 
won an election. But the failure to do the same across the government 
is going to be how he blows his presidency.

Here's the point: the same toxic managerial dynamics that poisoned 
the Bush presidency are already at work in the Obama administration's 
economic policy-making. And that's not a very good sign.

Umair Haque


Umair Haque is Director of the Havas Media Lab, a new kind of 
strategic advisor that helps investors, entrepreneurs, and firms 
experiment with, craft, and drive radical management, business model, 
and strategic innovation.

Prior to Havas, Umair founded Bubblegeneration, an agenda-setting 
advisory boutique that helped shape the strategies of investors, 
entrepreneurs, and blue chip companies across media and consumer 
industries. Bubblegeneration's work has been recognized by 
publications like Wired, The Red Herring, Business 2.0, and 
BusinessWeek, and in Chris Anderson's Long Tail, to which Umair was a 
contributor.
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