--- In obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com, "mbahqu" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > Isu yg beredar, SPO BLTA mundur dari rencana Oktober 2006. > Apa ada yg punya info yg melengkapi ? > kayaknya nggak , ini saya lampirkan report punya DBS
�� Story: Proposed offering in SGX has been amended, canceling the issuance 5% new shares, such that the offering would only comprise of treasury shares of up to 410m shares, and possibly in conjunction with placement of founder shares. �� Point: This should have no impact at all, as the objective of secondary listing is to unlock its book value rather than to raise more capital. �� Relevance: We maintain our Strong Buy rating on BLTA with target price of IDR3,000, with further catalyst beside the imminent secondary listing - of robust q-o-q improvement in the 3Q financial performance, as strong recovery in oil tanker rates has been evidenced from its lows in the 2Q, and renewed contract prices for chemical tankers effective in this quarter. We share the company's view of bullish chemical rates in 07 given expected shift of significant cargo volumes to higher grade IMO II chemical vessels on the back of new regulations. What are the changes? The company has amended its proposed offering in the SGX, eliminating the issuance of 5% new shares without pre-emptive rights, thus the initial offering would only come from the treasury stocks arising from current buyback program of up to 410m shares (10% of total outstanding) and possibly in conjunction with placement of founder shares of another 410m shares. This is good news in our view, as previously the company has been at odds with the stock exchange authority, as traditionally the 5% new shares issuance is allocated for a private placement with a 12-month lock up period, instead of a public offering. Why the secondary listing? Worthy of note is that the objective of the secondary listing is to 1) unlock company's book value, as assets would be marked to market (FY06 P/BV should drop to estimated 1.4x from current 2.7x), thus allowing BLTA to further leverage for its expansion, and 2) obtain more favorable valuations by expanding its audience base, rather than an exercise to re-capitalize. BLTA's cash position is strong as the company should receive around USD135m in cash arising from the sale- andleaseback of three chemical tankers, booking extraordinary gain of USD54m, thus lending a hand to its expansion plan particularly as BLTA has entered the new FPSO business segment. Nevertheless, there is potential gain to be made from the offering of the treasury stocks, assuming average buyback price of IDR2,300/share, there is c.IDR41bn potential gain or 3% of 06 net profits. How much can we expect? We understand that the secondary listing is imminent, with book building likely to be carried out by the end of this month and the actual listing by mid next month. The company is said to aim for 9.0x PER for the offering compared to current valuation of 6.7x FY07 PER. We think 8.0x PER is more likely and should be achievable, translating to share price of IDR2,400 around SGD41cents or 18% upside from the current market price. Supporting the share price would be the current buyback program in place, of which the company has only completed c.100m shares or c.25% of allowed numbers of shares to be bought back thus another 300m shares still outstanding. Yahoo! Groups Links <*> To visit your group on the web, go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/ <*> Your email settings: Individual Email | Traditional <*> To change settings online go to: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/obrolan-bandar/join (Yahoo! ID required) <*> To change settings via email: mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] <*> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to: http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/