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Indonesia, Mau Krisis, Mau Bullish
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Consumer Spending Falls as Americans Boost Savings (Update1)
By Courtney Schlisserman
June 1 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. consumer spending fell for a second straight month
as concern over rising unemployment and record wealth destruction prompted
households to boost savings rates to the highest level in 14 years.
The 0.1 percent drop in purchases in April was smaller than forecast and
followed a 0.3 percent decrease in March that was larger than previously
estimated, Commerce Department figures showed in Washington. The savings rate
rose to 5.7 percent, spurred by an unexpected jump in incomes linked to the
fiscal stimulus.
Household spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the economy, is likely to
falter again this quarter even as confidence improves, extending the worst
recession in half a century. Still, signs that other areas, such as housing and
manufacturing, are stabilizing, signal that the economic slump will ease as the
year progresses.
“Consumers feel better about the economy but their spending has yet to catch up
and it’s unclear it will because income is under pressure,” Jonathan Basile ,
an economist at Credit Suisse Holdings Inc. in New York, said before the
report.
Treasuries, which had fallen earlier in the day, remained lower, while
stock-index futures retained their gains. Yields on benchmark 10-year notes
rose to 3.56 percent as of 8:41 a.m. in New York from 3.47 percent at last
week’s close. Contracts on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index were up 1.4
percent at 919.14.
Economists’ Forecasts
Economists forecast spending would fall 0.2 percent, according to the median of
63 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from a drop of 0.3
percent to a gain of 0.2 percent.
Incomes climbed 0.5 percent, the biggest gain in almost a year, reflecting
increases in unemployment insurance benefits and social security payments
associated with the Obama administration’s stimulus plan. Income was projected
to also fall 0.2 percent, matching the March decrease.
Wages and salaries were unchanged in April as job losses mounted. Pay fell 0.6
percent the prior month.
The savings rate surged in April to the highest level since February 1995, from
4.5 percent the prior month.
Rising Unemployment
The world’s largest economy has lost 5.7 million jobs since the recession began
in December 2007, the biggest employment slump of any downturn. The
unemployment rate, already at a 25- year high of 8.9 percent in April, may
still average 9.6 percent in 2010, according to economists surveyed earlier
this month.
Today’s report also showed inflation eased. The price gauge tied to spending
patterns climbed 0.4 percent from April 2008, compared with a 0.6 percent
increase in the year ended in March. The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure,
which excludes food and fuel, increased 0.3 percent, after a 0.2 percent
increase a month before, and was up 1.9 percent from a year earlier.
Adjusted for inflation, spending decreased 0.1 percent following a 0.3 percent
drop the prior month.
Disposable income, or the money left over after taxes, jumped 1.1 percent. Tax
cuts enacted by the Obama administration as part of its economic stimulus
package took effect April 1, helping to boost the figures.
Automakers are among industries suffering most from the cutbacks in spending.
General Motors Corp. today filed for bankruptcy protection and will sell most
of its assets to a new company. It follows Chrysler LLC, which filed in April.
Bankruptcy Impact
The uncertainty surrounding the car companies may be one reason consumers are
unwilling to spend. Once the bankruptcies are settled, Americans may step up
purchases again.
“There will be more visibility for consumers who want to buy a car or a truck
once these bankruptcy proceedings are behind us,” said Basile at Credit Suisse.
“It makes it difficult for consumers to come to a spending decision when you’re
not sure that the maker of something you’re going to buy is going to be there.”
The economy shrank at a 5.7 percent pace in the first quarter, the government
said last week. While that was less than previously estimated, it capped the
worst six-month performance in five decades.
Costco Wholesale Corp. the largest U.S. warehouse-club chain, said May 28 that
third-quarter profit fell 29 percent, partly because consumers cut spending.
Chief Financial Officer Richard Galanti said sales of goods other than food
have waned.
Hit to Costco
The retailer suffered from “ongoing weakness in sales, particularly sales of
higher-ticket, discretionary items,” Galanti said.
Still rising stock prices are making Americans less pessimistic. Confidence
jumped in May by the most in six years, the New York-based Conference Board
reported last week. The Reuters/University of Michigan’s index also climbed.
Dell Inc. Chief Executive Officer Michael Dell said last week he expects
customers to replace aging computers in 2010 after Microsoft Corp. releases
Windows 7 and Intel Corp. introduces faster chips for the machines.
“I think there will be quite a powerful cycle of upgrades” in 2010, Dell said.
“The users are getting restless as the machines get to the fourth year or fifth
year, and at home they have a brand new product that’s got the latest operating
system and latest capabilities. That can’t go on forever.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Courtney Schlisserman in Washington at
cschlisse...@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: June 1, 2009 08:49 EDT
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