Pokoke.. yang TP kemaren gak kebagian besok!! On Tue, Mar 31, 2009 at 10:08 PM, nicholas alvin <nicholas_al...@yahoo.com>wrote:
> > > *Strong operationally* > > > > > *EBIT grew 51% in FY08* > > Indofood posted Rp1,034b FY08 net profit, up 6% YoY on the back of 39% YoY > revenue growth. The company reclassified discounts to costs of sales, from > operating expenses previously. Hence, operating expenses only grew 18% YoY, > much lower than the revenue growth. Operating profit increased 51% YoY to > Rp4,341b and EBIT margin was up to 11.2% from 10.3% in FY07. Agribusiness > was still the largest contributor to both revenue and EBIT with 47% and 87% > respectively. Up to operating profit, the result is in line with our > expectation. However, net profit was below our expectation, mainly due to a > large loss in foreign exchange (-Rp713b). Interest expenses were up > significantly (63% YoY to Rp1,158b) due to additional debts, mostly resulted > from Indolakto’s acquisition. > > > *Revenue grew despite lower sales volume* > > With the exception of plantation (which showed 109% sales volume growth), > other divisions showed lower sales volume in FY08. In Consumer Branded > Products, instant noodle volume was down 10%, food seasonings were down 3.8% > and nutrition & special foods were down 26% due to absence of order of milk > and baby foods from institutions (i.e., Unicef). In flour, Bogasari shows a > 19% YoY volume decline. Indofood revenue growth of 39% was supported mostly > from selling price increases. > > > *Managing cash flow* > > In 2009 Indofood is focusing on cash flow management. In the midst of > tight liquidity, the company has to prioritize capex. It has revised down > capex assumption to Rp3.4t from previously planned Rp4.0t. Indofood > Director also said that there is a possibility that capex will be cut > further to Rp3.0t. Of the budgeted capex, Rp2.3t is allocated for > plantation, mostly for sugar plantation and nurturing of existing palm > plantations. The company will not conduct new planting in 2009. > > > > Indofood is planning to change its debt profile to include more long-term > vs. short-term debt, and more rupiah vs. USD denominated debt. According to > management, at the moment the ratio of short-term debt vs. long-term debt > has declined to around 45:55, from 61:39 at end of 2008. The company is > targeting a 30:70 ratio by end of 2009. > > > > Indofood’s net gearing was at 1.68x per end of 2008. It is targeting a net > gearing of 1.0x. > > > *Sources of future growth* > > In 2M09, according to management, sales volume of noodle and flour show > healthy trends. We expect revenue to still show growth. Recently acquired > Indolakto is expected to contribute approximately 20%-25% of revenue from > Consumer Branded Product. Its EBIT margin is expected to be around 10%, > much higher than the 3% margin of noodles. > > > > Indofood management said that they will maintain selling prices of noodles > in 2009. The company will launch *Anak Mas* instant noodle, catered to > low-end of consumer segment, at the price of around Rp500/pack, lower than > 50% of the retail prices of *Indomie, *the leading product. > > > *Attractively valued* > > Indofood share price has been sharply corrected mainly due to negative > sentiment over Indolakto’s acquisition price and negative outlook on palm > oil price. We believe the share price has reflected the negatives. At 1.9x > 2010F EV/EBITDA, Indofood is attractively values. BUY, our TP is Rp1,200 > (25% potential upside), which pegs the stock at 3.8x 2010F EV/EBITDA or 9.5x > 2010F PER. > > > > > > Katarina Setiawan > > ksetia...@kimeng.co.id > > (62 21) 2557 1125 > > > > >
