ADRO 1200 jg? Edan, rumor n TA sejalan. Mana yg duluan sih?
Sent from my BlackBerry®
powered by Sinyal Kuat INDOSAT
-----Original Message-----
From: KC <kathleen_chu...@yahoo.com>
Date: Sun, 26 Apr 2009 19:54:29
To: undisclosed recipients: ;<Invalid address>
Subject: [ob] Kim Eng Indonesia Equity Daily, 27 Apr 09
Our
Comment
Cigarette
producers continued to increase production in the second month of this
year. Total YTD production (measured by excise ribbon purchase) was up 17%
YoY to 41 billion sticks. We see that the sharp increase is caused by
heavy purchase of excise ribbons by cigarette producers anticipating another
hike in excise ahead of the election. Increased volume is, to a certain
extent, may also be resulted from more spending from election money. We
notice that purchase in February (12.2 bn) was lower compared to that in
January
(28.9 bn). Gudang Garam
showed large growth of 50% and was leading in production, ahead from HM
Sampoerna. Its market share in February was 26%, ahead from HM Sampoerna
with 23%. The strongest growth was shown by hand-rolled cigarettes at 23%
YoY. This phenomenon shows that purchasing power is weakening, and that
smokers switched to cheaper products. Hand-rolled cigarettes, borne lower
excise, are sold at lower prices. At 5.9x 2009F PER and 0.65x 2009F PBV,
Gudang Garam is undervalued. BUY, TP is
Rp7,500.
Bisnis
Indonesia daily reported
that the consortium of Goldman Sachs, Faralon, Citi and Robert Kuok from
Malaysia plans to sell 17% stake at
Adaro or 5.4b at minimum price
Rp1200 a share. The daily quoted an unnamed investment manager indicated
that some buyers from China ,
India ,
Japan , and
Korea
as well as San Miguel of the Philippine have expressed interests on the
stocks.
Upcoming
presidential election and speculation on candidate for President Yudhoyono’s
running mate still dominate the media headlines. Partai Demokrat,
President Yudhoyono’s party, is expected to announce the candidate somewhere in
June.
Katarina
Setiawan
Highlights
•
Berlian
Laju: Obtained
US$27m financing
•
Adaro
Energy: Shareholders
to sell at Rp1200
•
Gozco: To issue
Rp300b bonds
•
Mandom
Indonesia: To distribute
Rp300 DPS (yield: 6.1%)
•
Cigarette: Production
volume increased 17% YoY in 2M09
•
Plantation: Djarum Group
to enter plantation business
From
our chartist desk
•
IDX: IDX Index
nearly touched our target of 1572 (trend) on last week. Weekly chart is still
in
positive direction according to candlestick formation Bullish harami and
triangle pattern. Our view: CPO and commodity-related stocks are moving
upwards.
Today’s trading range is between 1525-1558-1575 (support) and 1608-1626-1659
(resistance).
•
AALI: Strong support
at MA 14 day. This scenario was in line with increasing money flow.
TRADING
BUY.
•
SGRO: Positive
sentiment from CPO price could bring strong impact to this stock. Our target
price is Rp1890. TRADING
BUY.
