CC mau bawa UNSP ke 2900. Riding high on CPO prices We raised our CPO price estimates by 7-10% for FY08F-09F and 25% in the longer term. This led to 5-16% upgrades in our earnings forecasts for Astra Agro Lestari (AALI), Bakrie Sumatera Plantations (UNSP) and Sampoerna Agro (SGRO) over FY08F-09F. We maintained our Buy recommendations for UNSP and SGRO, and raised the target prices to Rp2,900 (+18% upside) and Rp5,100 (+ 17% upside), respectively. Meanwhile, we maintained our Neutral recommendation for AALI. Raising our CPO price estimates. We raised our CPO price (CIF basis) assumptions by 7% and 10% for FY08F and FY09F to US$900/ton and US$880/ton, respectively. We also revised up our long-term CPO price assumption by 25% to US$800/ton. We believe that the fight for acreage between grains and oilseeds will continue in the near to medium term while looming deadline for biofuel mandates would underpin long-term demand. Rising production costs will be mitigated by higher selling prices. We estimate that production costs will increase by 20-25% in FY08F on the back of rising fertilizer prices and increase in minimum wages. Fertilizer cost, which accounts for 20% of production costs, increased by 60% yoy in FY07 due to rising natural gas prices and surging demand. Minimum wages for Sumatra and Kalimantan region were up by 10% and 12%, respectively. Labor cost makes up approximately 40-50% of production costs. However, the rising costs are mitigated by high CPO prices hence we expect margin expansion to be sustained over the next two years. Sorry kepotong, keterbatasan gmail mobile.
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