Yes Mama Loren (ML) want to buy them cheap....so, are you gonna give them to
Mama Loren?
Regards,
SF FM
Where you can trust your fund
--- On Tue, 2/17/09, simon bolenang <simon_bolen...@yahoo.com> wrote:
From: simon bolenang <simon_bolen...@yahoo.com>
Subject: [obrolan-bandar] BUMI (TP Rp550) - Merrill Lynch: 4Q08 results preview
To: "obrolan-bandar yahoogroups" <obrolan-bandar@yahoogroups.com>, "saham
yahoogroups" <sa...@yahoogroups.com>
Date: Tuesday, February 17, 2009, 5:11 AM
Maaf Mama lagi cari barang murah neh.Jadi yg percaya silahkan apalagi mau
buang barang.
FY08 results likely below our expectations
Bumi is expected to release its fully audited FY08 results on 31 March. We
expect
EBITDA to grow 210% to US$1.47bn and net profit 136% to US$700mn.
However, we sense BUMI's operating income will come in below our and market's
expectations (US$1.3bn) due to sales-volume slippage, as well as rising
demurrage and commission fees. This is likely to be offset by a lower tax rate.
Operating performance could be below our expectations
The main culprits we see are slippage in sales volume and higher costs due to
rising demurrage and commission fees, which are likely to offset falling diesel
prices. Some 1-2 shipments deferrals and a breakdown in ship loaders were
reported in 4Q. In addition, we could see a higher demurrage fee due to heavy
rainfall. We see potential volume slippage up to 4mn t and higher sales/GA
expense by roughly US$3/t.
Lower tax rate offers potential silver lining
Historically, the company has booked a lower tax rate due to accumulated losses
carried forward. For instance, up to 9M08, it booked an accumulated fiscal loss
of
US$88mn, mainly due to a US$113mn loss carry-forward. We believe this trend is
likely to be sustained this year, which points to a positive deferred tax, and
hence
a lower tax rate. We have assumed an effective tax rate of 25%.
2009 estimates look a tad aggressive compared with 2008
We expect Bumi to expand its sales volume from 52mn t (after factoring in the
volume slippage) in 2008 to 58mn t in 2009. This is while there is rising
concern
over L/C requirements and a global decline in coal demand. Before a new trade
policy on L/C requirement took effect on 5 January, we believe none of Bumi's
customers were required to pay through L/C.
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