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ANTM laba bakal 1,5 T jadi EPS sekitar 780-an utk yg 2006. Lihat bulan
depan!!!!
Utk 2007 tambahn FENI III kalo nickel bertahan di 30000$/MT bisa Rp 2,5-2,8T
EPS 2007=1300-an.
So target tahun ini bisa di atas 13000 soalnya nickel 3 bulan saja sudah
38800$/MT (17.6$/lb), gimana kalo nickel tembus 40000$? Soalnya canceled warant
sudah dekati 40%.
Utk pegang ANTM, TINS, INCO selain ngerti fundamental, harus ngerti juga how
the futures work!
babon joe <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
ANTM BREAK NEW HIGH, VOLUME BESAR , BUY
Investor Bonex <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: In my view, INCO lebih prefer
di bandingkan dg ANTM. Untuk saat ini, ANTM sdh sesuai dg value utk Y2007 (dg
asumsi avrg nickel di sekitar 35-36 K/MT). INCO masih ada potential upside up
to 30%.
any comment ?
timah bangkabelitung <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
ANTM adalahan growth stocks, yang setiap tahun bertumbuh sales maupun
profitnya, bahkan tumbuh luar biasa. Dengan P/E yang masih
rendah ( PER 07F 5 ) saya rasa ANTM boleh di collect. Untuk yang
pegang posisi TINS sebaiknya profit taking dulu karena sudah mendekati target
07F fundamentalnya ( resikonya lebih besar dari pada untungnya, apalagi nanti
mendadak harga timah jatuh seperti nikel
yang membuat INCO turun ) switching ke ANTM yang lebih aman.
Up side masih 80 %, investasi yang aman, tidur bisa pulas ngak cepat
sakit jantung nanti uang kita berbunga 80% setahun. Teman saya ada
yang masih pegang ANTM di harga Rp 1250 semuanya ANTM tidak ada saham yang
lain dan sampai sekarang belum jual ,untuk hari tua dan untuk anak,katanya
tahun ini untungnya bisa double, coba hitung untungnya berapa persen pertahun (
beli maret 2004 ).
Thanks
redyherinantoalb <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
Nah itu dia yang saya maksud.... masa harga Besi Lebih mahal dari
Nickel.... tapi kalo dilihat nama pabriknya "FENI" harusnya emang
Ferro Nickel.... so kenaikan harga nickel seharusnya tidak memberi
pengaruh yang besar ke Antm, karena dia hanya 20% kandungan nickel
nya, lain cerita dengan INCO yang 80%..... so, sell antm buy INCO???
Redy
--- In saham@yahoogroups.com, "Ryan Ariadi Suwarno" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> saya pernah ngobrol dengan Bp. Eko Endriawan, beliaw kerja di PT
Antam di bag investor relations.
> kandungan nickel dalam ferronickel adalah sekitar 20%, sisanya 80%
adalah besi
>
> jadi yang dimaksud dengan nickel dalam sales volume "ferronickel"
ANTM adalah langsung nickel content-nya. jadi untuk perhitungan
harga jual ekspornya bisa langsung menggunakan harga internasional.
rada-rada tricky memang.... jadi orang banyak yg salah persepsi
>
> beda dengan "nickel in matte"nya INCO yang memiliki kandngan
nickel kurang lebih 80% dalam nickel in matte. otomatis kalo itung
harga "nickel in matte" milik INCO dalam lapkeu = 80% x harga
nickel LME.
>
> saya cc email ini juga kepada Bp Eko Endriawan, semoga membantu..
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: redyherinantoalb
> To: saham@yahoogroups.com
> Sent: Wednesday, January 31, 2007 1:15 PM
> Subject: [saham] Re: Buy ANTM target Rp 14000,-
>
>
> Ada sedikit pertanyaan pak Eka... output Antm itu berupa Ferro
> Nickel atau Nickel Matte? Setahu saya kalo Ferro Nickel kadar
nickel
> nya rendah lho... jadi Antm beli Nockel Matte dari INCO untuk
> diturunkan kadarnya menjadi Ferro Nickel? Mohon informasinya,
saya
> betul2 bingung masalah ini...
> Thank you,
> Redy
> --- In saham@yahoogroups.com, EKA SUWANDANA <esuwandan@> wrote:
> >
> > Biasa, kalo udah hilang barang begitu!!! Kalo nggak target
harga
> diturunin, harga nickel ditakut2in turun. Awal Tahun 2006 lalu
> ketika harga nickel jatuh dari 8$/lb ke 6$/lb, semua sekuritas
dalam
> risetnya pake rata2 5$/lb atau 4$/lb, ehh malah naik terus.
Nickel
> price, only God knows where to go?
> >
> > By the way, Rp14000 target mah sangat possible asal Nickel
nggak
> turun dibawah 30000$/MT. Ibu Daisy risetnya di ML sekarang
ikut2an
> setuju bakal 15000-16000. Ah saya sih 11000-12000 udah seneng
tuh!
> >
> > Saya yakin sekarang para MI sudah dapet bocoran laporan 2006
> yg 'bocor' semenjak 2 hari lalu. profit Rp 1.5T? EPS? Asumsi
2007
> kalo gini sih bisa 2,6T??? Common guys kenapa hari ini turun????
> >
> >
> > James Arifin <james.arifin@> wrote:
> > so strange, even Ferry Wong recommend "HOLD" while he forecast
> the stock price will drop to 7500 in 12 months period.
STRANGE ...
> STRANGE
> >
> > On 1/25/07, nicholas alvin <nicholas_alvin@>
> wrote:
> > Antam's Nickel Output May Rise to 22,000 Tons in 2007
(Update2)
> > By Claire Leow and Leony Aurora
> > Jan. 25 (Bloomberg) --PT Aneka Tambang, Indonesia's second-
> largest nickel miner, said it may increase output of the metal
by as
> much as 52 percent this year as with a new smelter contributing
full-
> year production.
> > Antam, as the company is known, may produce between 20,000
> metric tons and 22,000 tons, a record, compared with estimated
> output of 14,474 tons in 2006, it said today in a statement.
> > The miner, which is 65 percent state-owned, is boosting
> production to take advantage of surging demand and record
prices.
> Nickel stockpiles tracked by the London Metal Exchange plunged
81
> percent last year, and a further 25 percent this year as more of
the
> metal was used in buildings, bridges and ships.
> > ``I am not sure about their production run,'' said Ferry Wong,
> an analyst with BNP Paribas Peregrine, who expects 21,000 tons
this
> year at best. ``They missed the target last year.''
> > Antam shares, which have gained 71 percent in the past six
> months, were unchanged at 8,050 rupiah at 11:42 a.m. Jakarta
time.
> Wong recommends investors hold the stock, which he forecasts
will
> drop to 7,500 rupiah in 12 months.
> > On Jan. 22, Jakarta-based Antam said it was aiming for output
of
> as much as 22,000 tons in 2008, when the new smelter would be
> running at full capacity.
> > Reduced Capacity
> > The company didn't give a 2007 output forecast in that
> statement, saying the smelter in question has been running at 36
> megawatts since mid-November, compared with a full load of 42
> megawatts. Antam also plans to overhaul its oldest smelter this
> year, which will disrupt production for at least six weeks.
> > Three-month nickel futures on the London Metal Exchange have
> more than doubled in the past year, touching a record yesterday
of
> $38,502 a metric ton, before settling at $37,450.
> > ``I prefer PT Inco as a pure nickel play,'' Wong said,
referring
> to PT International Nickel Indonesia, the country's largest
nickel
> maker and a unit of Rio de Janeiro-based Cia. Vale do Rio Doce,
the
> world's second-largest mining company. PT Inco makes only
nickel,
> while Antam also makes gold and bauxite.
> > International Nickel Indonesia shares have gained 76 percent
to
> 35,100 rupiah in six months, and Wong has a 12-month stock
target of
> 38,000 rupiah.
> > Unscheduled Shutdown
> > Antam's new smelter, its third, started operating last May.
> Still, the facility experienced a leak in July, forcing an
> unscheduled shutdown, and it is now running at 85 percent of
> capacity. The leak forced the company to cut its initial 2006
> production forecast of 20,000 tons several times.
> > In the fourth quarter to Dec. 31, Antam's nickel output rose
36
> percent to 4,551 tons, lifting production for the full year by
97
> percent to 14,474 tons, today's statement said.
> > The higher prices and production helped Antam more than double
> its sales in the fourth quarter to 2.17 trillion rupiah ($239
> million) compared with 1.06 trillion rupiah a year earlier. Full-
> year sales rose 69 percent to 5.57 trillion rupiah.
> > Today's statement didn't give profit figures or forecasts.
> > Antam sold 3,673 tons of nickel in the fourth quarter,
fetching
> an average price of $14.24 a pound, more than double the $5.82 a
> pound in the same period a year earlier.
> > Costs rose 13 percent to $4.40 a pound in 2006, the company
> added.
> > In the fourth quarter, Antam's gold output rose 29 percent to
> 719 kilograms. It produced 2,873 kilograms of gold for the full
> year, beating its target of 2,591 kilograms. Production of
silver, a
> by-product of gold, dropped 3 percent to 23,876 kilograms for
the
> full year.
> > Also in the fourth quarter, the company produced 393,158 wet
> metric tons of bauxite, 9 percent higher on year.
> > The miner is accelerating spending on exploration to keep up
> with demand, spending 36 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter
> compared with 19 billion in the year-earlier period.
> > To contact the reporters on this story: Claire Leow in Jakarta
> at cleow@ ; Leony Aurora in Jakarta at laurora@
> > Last Updated: January 25, 2007 00:05 EST
> >
> > ---------------------------------
> > It's here! Your new message!
> > Get new email alerts with the free Yahoo! Toolbar.
> >
>
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