* The Islamic Army in Iraq: Bold Statements, Empty Threats January 06, 2005 1755 GMT http://www.stratfor.biz/Story.neo?storyId=241906
The militant group Islamic Army in Iraq posted a statement on the Internet on Jan. 3 threatening to launch terrorist attacks on U.S. soil. Although this is the first time in nearly a year that any credible Islamist militants have directly threatened to carry out attacks within the United States -- "Azzam the American" aside -- Stratfor believes the group likely is incapable of following up on its threats. Speeches by Osama bin Laden himself most recently have focused on threatening those in league with the United States, such as Saudi Arabia, rather than the United States itself. The Islamic Army in Iraq emerged in mid-2003 as the insurgency in Iraq was picking up, making it one of the earliest militant organizations to appear on the scene. By early spring 2004, myriad Islamist militant groups and militant leaders, such as Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, had begun their own campaigns of violence. Sources in the Iraqi government, however, claim that this is the largest Islamist militant group currently fighting in Iraq. The Islamic Army in Iraq has been responsible for a number of high-profile incidences of violence and terrorism -- most notably the killing of Italian journalist Enzo Baldoni in August 2002. The group also abducted two French citizens that same month, holding them hostage until December, when they were released unharmed. It is blamed for a number of other kidnappings in Iraq as well, and likely has been involved in other attacks that have gone unreported; because of the sheer volume of violence in Iraq, a large percentage of it does not make it into the media. Although this group is obviously quite capable of operating successfully in Iraq -- which makes it dangerous for U.S. military and civilian personnel working in the country -- that does not mean it is capable of launching attacks thousands of miles away in the United States. As Stratfor has said, the ability of any group to carry out a large-scale attack within the continental United States has been hindered by increased security efforts domestically and successful counterterrorism operations overseas. The likelihood now that a group from halfway around the world would be able to accomplish what al Qaeda has been unable to accomplish since the Sept. 11 attacks is slim. Having said that, however, there is an outside possibility that this threat could serve as a catalyst for action by a jihadist already inside the United States. An attack by a lone wolf Islamist militant motivated by the Islamic Army in Iraq's rhetoric, unfortunately, is difficult to prevent. Like the threat from native Californian Adam Gadahn, or "Azzam the American," who released a videotape on the eve of the U.S. presidential election warning that the streets of America would run with blood, this Internet-posted statement seems more like braggadocio. It also appears more of a call to action than a genuine threat the group intends to back up. According to its statement, Islamist militants from Iraq "will take the battle from inside our country to yours" and "will bring woes on America." The statement goes on to say that "the mujahideen have prepared big surprises for your sons outside America and a big surprise for you inside America," and "we will give American civilians a taste of what civilians in our country go through." By making such a bold claim, the group likely is attempting to garner support in Iraq in terms of manpower, money and supplies in an effort to keep its operation afloat. Furthermore, it is attempting to set itself apart from its jihadist peers and raise itself to a level of notoriety that rivals Iraq's resident jihadist celebrity al-Zarqawi -- the last credible militant to directly threaten the United States, in February 2004. Nothing came of that threat, either. 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