[Excerpt: Said said that Muqtada's political weight is partly due to his militia, the Mehdi Army, still being a fighting force. "Nobody disarms in Iraq, unfortunately," he said. "All these politicians keep militias ready at hand in case the political process doesn't go the way they like. It's an insurance policy."]
Apr 19, 2005 http://208.39.143.167/atimes/Middle_East/GD19Ak01.html Muqtada returns to political scene By Valentinas Mite PRAGUE - Young Shi'ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr's movement is capitalizing on popular discontent with the US-led occupation. Yahia Said, a researcher on Iraq and other transitional nations at the London School of Economics, told RFE/RL that the United States has been slow to present a withdrawal schedule and the Iraqi government is unwilling to press the issue. Said said that the size of a recent demonstration of Muqtada's supporters indicates that there is a groundswell of popular support for the withdrawal of foreign troops. He said that Muqtada is exploiting this situation, perhaps with a view to winning the next elections. "Opinion polls suggest that around 60% - between 50 and 60% - of Iraqis want foreign troops out of the country as soon as possible. And they expect the government to do something about it, the elected government," Said said. Said said that although Muqtada's movement officially boycotted the January parliamentary elections, it has some two dozen sympathizers in parliament. Most of those, he said, are within the ranks of the dominant Shi'ite United Iraqi Alliance bloc. One of those sympathizers, Salam al-Maliky, this week read out to the assembly Muqtada's key demands. They include the withdrawal of foreign troops, the speeding up of former dictator Saddam Hussein's trial, and the release of Iraqis held in US-run prisons. Even though Muqtada is not in parliament, Said said he has a lot of political influence. Muqtada is also believed to have good relations with the Sunni Association of Muslim Clerics. Said said that Muqtada's political weight is partly due to his militia, the Mehdi Army, still being a fighting force. "Nobody disarms in Iraq, unfortunately," he said. "All these politicians keep militias ready at hand in case the political process doesn't go the way they like. It's an insurance policy." Said added that there could be a crisis if the Mehdi Army resurfaces. Other analysts, however, are not convinced of the extent of Muqtada's influence. David Hartwell is Middle East editor at Jane's Sentinel Security Assessments. He is not sure that Muqtada is as influential as the anti-occupation demonstration might indicate. Also, Hartwell said, Muqtada's demands for US withdrawal are not as radical as they might seem, as many parties now in parliament have this demand in their election programs. "I think the parties already within the parliament will probably articulate most of what al-Sadr is saying," he said. "I think al-Sadr is able to mobilize those closest to him and to those from al-Sadr City [a district of Baghdad]." Despite Muqtada's demands and the growing support for an end to the military occupation, it doesn't look like US or coalition troops are leaving any time soon. During a surprise visit to Baghdad this week, US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said that there was no exit strategy in place for the some 140,000 US soldiers stationed in Iraq. Rumsfeld said that their exit depends on the readiness of Iraqi security forces, who are being trained by the Americans. The country's new leadership has also said Iraqi forces are unprepared to take over from US-led troops. Hartwell says the US wants to pull out troops only when the insurgency is brought under control. "I think they are very, very anxious not be seen to be getting out before the insurgency has been, as they say, brought under control, or at least brought to a level that is manageable for the Iraqi security forces to take over," he said. Iraq has experienced a surge of violence over the last week. On Sunday, reports say militants killed at least eight Iraqis in various attacks aimed at the police and government employees. Meanwhile, the US military said three American troops were killed and seven others wounded as insurgents fired mortar rounds late Saturday at a Marine base near Ramadi, west of Baghdad. Meanwhile, rumors continue to swirl over what appears to be a mass hostage-taking in a town south of Baghdad. US and Iraqi troops have reportedly launched an operation to free an estimated 150 Shi'ite hostages. The hostages were taken in the town of Madaen, 40 kilometers outside of Baghdad. Sunni gunmen have allegedly threatened to kill the hostages unless all of the town's Shi'ites left. The analysts agree that Iraqi politicians understand that without foreign troops the country could well disintegrate into civil war. Copyright (c) 2005, RFE/RL Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave NW, Washington DC 20036 enditem ------------------------ Yahoo! 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