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The Coming Revolution: Struggle for Freedom in the Middle East


Muslim Brotherhood Riding the Crest of Arab Spring


 
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 By Dr. Walid Phares  Friday, June 3, 2011

In my most recent book, "The Coming Revolution: Struggle for Freedom in the
Middle East" (completed July 4, 2010), I argue that civil societies in the
Greater Middle East and Arab world had reached a "critical stage" in their
repudiation of all authoritarian forms of government: regime, theocracy,
military and ultra-nationalist.

        

The projections therein were based on a thorough study of antecedent Cedars
and Green Revolutions in Lebanon (2005) and Iran (2009) respectively, both
with limpid narratives, particularly online, and both auguring a
continuation of bottom-up, regime-crumbling uprisings in the region.

Even before the region's revolutionary meltdowns began, our findings were
accompanied by a sober warning - a grueling contest would ensue between the
dispersed and disorganized proponents of liberal democratic reform and the
Islamists, led by the Muslim Brotherhood.

Indeed, as soon as the uprisings erupted on the streets of Tunis and Cairo,
the Islamist political machine went into high gear. With Al-Jazeera's
influential backing and the support of Qatar's "diplomatic duo" and Turkey's
Adalet ve Kalkinma Partisi (AKP) (English: Justice and Development Party),
the region's mostly-Sunni Islamist movements gradually rose from the bottom
and seized the initiative.


The tactics used by the Islamists


The first of three tactics the Islamists have pursued in their
protest-infiltration strategy was avoidance of any statement or action that
might associate the demonstrations with long-term Muslim Brotherhood goals.
Members were put on notice - no mention of Shariah or the caliphate.

The second was to focus on the affected regimes, not on the West. U.S.,
European and even Israeli flag burning were forbidden. The third tactic
involved invoking Shabab al Thawra (English: "youth of revolution"), a
rubric the Islamists used repeatedly to camouflage their predatory
intentions with the uprisings' secular, liberal democratic lexical
accouterments.

While masses, and particularly real revolutionary youth, were exploding
against dictators from Egypt to Libya and Yemen to Syria, Islamist networks
were systematically climbing the ladder of each national revolt.

Like the anti-Tsar Bolsheviks of the October Revolution and the anti-Shah
Khomeinists of the Iranian Revolution, the Muslim Brotherhood are hampered
in their own milieu by citizens' knowing them well enough to see through
their maneuvers.

In the West, on the other hand, the Ikhwan are supported by a vast army of
apologist elites who obfuscate their mission by referring to them as
"revivalists," a misnomer that has been spoon-fed to the public and
policymakers for years.

As evidence that this propaganda still achieves its intended effect, a
high-ranking U.S. official recently referred to the Ikhwan as "a loose
network of secular groups." Thus the Ikhwan, far better organized and funded
than their authentic counterparts in the region and buttressed by an
illusory international reputation, are riding the turbid wave and
controlling the dynamics of the so-called Arab Spring created for them by
the region's true secular reformers.

While chaos reigns among Muslim Brotherhood-infiltrated pro-democracy forces
in Egypt, Ikhwan in the Land of the Pharaohs are preparing for parliamentary
and possible presidential elections. They are launching a political party, a
media campaign, and preparing for a political offensive that will run into
the millions.

The Muslim Brotherhood has also been coaching Egypt's armed forces on
regional diplomacy. This has resulted in the opening of Gaza's gate to Egypt
and Hamas being hosted in Cairo. Similarly, in Jordan the Muslim Brotherhood
is backing the Islamist Action Front in a move directed against the
Jordanian monarchy.

Cousin to Egypt's Ikhwan, the Islamist al Nahda movement in Tunisia is
positioning itself for greater influence in that country's leadership. In
Libya, the Shabab al Thawra (English: "Youth of the Revolution"), considered
legitimate by many European governments and Qatar, is having a significant
impact on the Interim National Council in Benghazi.


By abstaining from publicly declaring their ideology, the Islamists in Libya
have the upper hand


By abstaining from publicly declaring their ideology, the Islamists in Libya
have the upper hand so long as NATO continues to support their efforts with
airstrikes on the "apostate" Gadhafi regime.

The Muslim Brotherhood has insinuated itself into Syria's popular uprising
against that country's Ba'athist dictator. The Muslim Brotherhood in Syria
has a score to settle with the Assad dynasty over the massacre of thousands
of Ikhwan faithful in the 1980s; their strategic plan is to ride the Syrian
revolt to the very end.

By penetrating tribal boundaries and Yemen's armed forces, Yemeni Salafists
have positioned themselves strategically while they launch their own version
of Shabab al Thawra. The Yemeni Republic's first and current president, Ali
Abdallah Saleh, will fight until his resources are exhausted and his enemies
gain the upper hand. Nevertheless, the Islamists in Yemen are readying
themselves for the post-Saleh era.

The regional consortium of Ikhwan and their Salafist allies has have their
eyes on several other countries in the region as well, including Morocco,
Algeria, Mauritania, and eventually, parts of Lebanon, Iraq and Sudan. While
moving with stealth and efficiency, the Muslim Brotherhood is also pausing
to obviate concerns that might arise over possible Western partnerships.

The U.S. and European decision to designate 40-billion dollars to the Arab
Spring will ineluctably profit the Muslim Brotherhood who President Obama
referred to in his speech as those who do not necessarily believe in "our
view of representative democracy."

In the meantime, the authentic democratic reformers - the Arab popular
majority, young Arab men and women, and ethnic minorities - who have borne
on their shoulders the brunt of the non-violent revolts, could still be
outmaneuvered and marginalized by the Muslim Brotherhood. Today's Arab
"Bolsheviks" could win the day if the West doesn't wake up soon and respond
accordingly.

If the West can't be roused from slumber, the Arab Spring may well become
the Middle East's "Prague moment."

 


 Author <http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/print-friendly/37202> 

Dr. Walid Phares
<http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/members/37202/Dr.%20Walid%20Phares/>
Bio

Dr. Walid Phares
<http://www.canadafreepress.com/index.php/members/37202/Dr.%20Walid%20Phares
/> Most recent columns

Dr. Walid Phares, <http://www.walidphares.com/> Walidphares.com,  is the
author of the "The Coming Revolution: Struggle for Freedom in the Middle
East," and "The War of Ideas: Jihadism against Democracy," He is a Professor
of Global Strategies and the Co-Secretary General of the Transatlantic
Legislative Group on Counter Terrorism. Dr. Phares can be reached at:
<mailto:pha...@walidphares.com?bcc=lett...@canadafreepress.com>
pha...@walidphares.com

 



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