http://www.cp.org/english/online/OnlineFullStory.aspx?filename=p022617a&newsitemid=24666021&languageid=1

NATO resolve could be tested in Afghanistan this year: security experts
NATHANIAL GRONEWOLD

NEW YORK (CP) - A Taliban offensive that's stronger than anticipated 
could test NATO's resolve in Afghanistan this year, says a new research 
report released Monday.

One of the major challenges for NATO is that while countries like 
Canada, Britain and the United States are engaged in a war with Taliban 
insurgents, other allies think of themselves only as peacekeepers, says 
researchers for the New York-based Center on International Co-operation.

The report regards Afghanistan as being among the most frustrating 
global security operations in 2006, with setbacks outpacing the 
expansion of NATO forces in the country.

NATO is expecting the Taliban to step up attacks once warmer weather 
arrives in Afghanistan but has expressed confidence in beating the 
insurgency. The researchers, however, warn of a possible resurgence of 
Taliban activity that is greater than even what NATO is expecting.

"Certainly I think we see every sign that we will face a major 
resurgence by the Taliban in the south in the spring that is being 
widely warned of, and I think we see signs that that will be perhaps 
even stronger than anticipated," Bruce Jones, a senior fellow at CIC and 
report co-author, told a news briefing.

"Statements of long-term commitments from leaders in Canada and the U.K. 
may be tested by significant casualties," the report warns.

The report's publication immediately follows Britain's announcement that 
it will deploy 1,400 additional troops to Afghanistan, bringing British 
troop levels to around 7,700. Earlier this month, the U.S. government 
made available additional troops to maintain a strong presence in the 
country.

Canada has about 2,500 troops in southern Afghanistan as part of NATO's 
International Security Assistance Force - ISAF. Forty-four Canadian 
soldiers and a diplomat have been killed in Afghanistan since 2002.

Based at New York University, the CIC collects data and conducts 
research on global security threats and humanitarian crises and acts as 
a consultant to the United Nations. Its "Annual Review of Global Peace 
Operations 2007" is the second in a series and is funded by the 
governments of Canada, United Kingdom, Norway, Germany, and Sweden, and 
with a grant from the Ford Foundation.

Afghanistan stands out as a dark spot in the report, with researchers 
saying the optimistic mood created by parliamentary elections in 
December 2005 had turned sour.

The report says major ISAF campaigns to stamp out the Taliban have not 
"diminished the vigour of the insurgency."

"NATO is learning that it is difficult to mount these operations," Jones 
said. "And there are of course the issue of national caveats about what 
troop contributors will and won't do, meaning that the burden is falling 
rather heavily on countries like Canada and the United States."

"I think the real difficulty here for NATO ... is that they are engaged 
in serious military action, and not all of the NATO contributors 
contemplated that from the start," Ian Johnstone, senior fellow at the 
centre, told the briefing.

Richard Gowan, program co-ordinator for the study, concurs.

"In Afghanistan, Germany and Italy are holding to a fairly traditional 
concept of peace operations, whereas Canada and Britain are essentially 
moving to something which is counterinsurgency-war fighting," he said in 
an interview.

Restrictions placed by countries on where their troops can deploy and 
what they can do are proving a serious obstacle to NATO's mission, the 
report says.

Italy and Germany restrict their forces to the relatively safe regions 
in the north and to Kabul, while Canada, the United States and Britain 
are leading efforts in the much more volatile south and on Afghanistan's 
border with Pakistan.

The U.S. and Canadian governments have been urging NATO allies to remove 
the restrictions and contribute more to the ISAF campaign. But thus far, 
their call has fallen largely on deaf ears, aside from new commitments 
by Britain and Poland.

Elsewhere, the report gives a positive assessment of the ability of UN 
peacekeeping operations to adapt and sustain themselves despite earlier 
concerns of overstretch and ongoing security challenges.

Global peacekeeping operations are at their highest levels ever, it says.

At the end of 2006, the UN commanded 80,368 troops, police and military 
observers, an increase of more than 10,000 over 2005 and breaking the 
previous record of 77,000 deployed during the height of the Balkans 
crisis. This increase was largely led by the expansion in the number of 
blue helmets deployed to Lebanon in 2006.

But UN successes, such as the recent elections in the Democratic 
Republic of the Congo and noticeable progress in places such as Haiti 
and Liberia, stood in contrast to the continued failure to move into the 
Darfur region due to resistance by the government in Khartoum.

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