Is Assad's regime long for this world? By Michael Young Daily Star staff Friday, April 15, 2005
As the leftovers of Syria's order in Lebanon struggle to salvage some power by manipulating and delaying an election that, if it were fair, would surely obliterate most of them, one wonders whether their sponsors in Damascus are long for this world. More importantly, how is Syria's fate perceived in Washington, where it may well be written in the coming months? The mood in the Bush administration is that the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad is not viable, perhaps even in the medium term, and that talk of gradual "reform" along the lines of what Assad and his acolytes have been trying to peddle abroad in the past four years is ridiculous in the current context. Worse for Assad, there seems little American fear that once he leaves or is made to leave office, Syria would be dominated by Islamists. The Syrian regime has tried to heighten that fear, but has also helped undermine the effort by making conciliatory gestures toward the Muslim Brotherhood of late, including returning property confiscated from its members in the area of Hama in the early 1980s, at the height of the anti-Baathist insurgency. That has smacked of weakness, both with the Brotherhood and in the United States, as did the release two weeks ago of 312 Kurdish prisoners. Everywhere, it seems, Assad is throwing off ballast, but he may soon get rid of too much, including vital pillars of his power. It is some satisfaction that the Syrians are facing the same contempt in Washington that they have so liberally dispensed when dealing with Lebanon. No doubt they would deny having anything to do with the delay in Lebanese parliamentary elections (much as a Syrian prankster at the United Nations denied they controlled security in Beirut when former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri was murdered). However, no one in the Bush administration buys such assertions; even State Department doves are watching the Syrians like hawks. As one official put it, the U.S. is "not in the souq" with Syria on Lebanon. At the National Security Council (NSC), meanwhile, a top official insists that while relations between Lebanon and Syria may be "special" by virtue of the countries' being neighbors, "it shouldn't be a colonial relationship. There will be friction with Syria if it doesn't respect this." Asked whether the Syrian regime is on life support, he avoided a direct answer, but accepted that the U.S., like most Arab regimes, thought "Syria was not maneuvering very well." He also said, with a hint of derision, that "pressure on Syria has not been very great; it can be greater," implying that Assad had perhaps caved in by so quickly withdrawing from Lebanon. Administration denizens will insist that Assad move forward with democracy and reform, but their body language and rhetoric suggest grave doubts as to whether this can be done - perhaps because even moderate amounts of both would effectively write the Baath regime out of Syria's own future. Almost no U.S. official discussed incentives for Syria to alter its behavior (except for one top Pentagon policymaker, who proposed simultaneously tightening the screws, including going after the funds stashed abroad of members of the Syrian leadership). Assad is on his own, and his austere brief is to change everything, to do so quickly and to demand absolutely nothing in return. The more respectable of Syria's Lebanese allies might now want to address this reality rather than display endemic fealty to Damascus. Washington is far more tolerant today of them than it is of the Syrian regime. If there is any salvation for those politicians congregating in the debris of the Ain al-Tineh grouping (barring, for the moment, Hizbullah), it is not in hitching their fortunes to a sinking Syria; it is in participating in the creation of a consensual new Lebanese order. For starts this means that a new prime minister-designate with some backbone be named, and that the upcoming government not be turned into a goldmine for pre-election patronage. And what of Hizbullah? The NSC official insists he is "worried" with the party, but also argues it "has its own interests, separate from Iran and Syria." He thinks there must be a "realistic timeframe" for Hizbullah's disarmament, and suggests the way to do this is to reinforce the Lebanese Army, which could fill the gap left by the party. "The new [Lebanese] government should tell us what the army needs." As for Syria's using its links with Hizbullah to destabilize Lebanon, but also engaging in other efforts to provoke chaos once its soldiers pull out of the country, the senior NSC policymaker put it this way: "We have told Syria you are responsible for violence in Lebanon. If Syria wants to escalate the violence, it will be another Syrian mistake." This phrase was echoed in the lapidary opening question posed by a senior Pentagon official known as a hard-liner on the Middle East to two Lebanese visitors: "What mistake will Assad make next?" One mistake he is already making is stalling the Lebanese electoral process on the grounds that this will allow Syria to limit the wreckage of its Lebanon interregnum. The simplistic assumption is that the longer elections are delayed, the more the opposition will fray and the better the pro-Syrians will be able to protect themselves and stage a comeback. The only problem is that it will be much more difficult for Assad to sustain collaboration once Syrian soldiers and intelligence agents are gone. Gradually, the political class, which will include present Syrian allies, may see fewer and fewer advantage in deferring to Damascus. Would this be so surprising? After all what does Syria offer its local friends except subservience? After 29 years, the Syrian regime, which we must reportedly thank for having robbed Lebanon blind, assassinated its leaders, bombed it cities and killed many thousands of its civilians, leaves a legacy no one cares to resurrect. Even the politicians who seconded Syria in its endeavors must realize that they finally have an opportunity to break free. If the world's superpower advises this and is willing to make things happen, shouldn't those who until recently took orders from Assad bother to take a chance? Michael Young is opinion editor of THE DAILY STAR. http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=10&categ_id=5&article_id= 14289 ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> Take a look at donorschoose.org, an excellent charitable web site for anyone who cares about public education! http://us.click.yahoo.com/_OLuKD/8WnJAA/cUmLAA/TySplB/TM --------------------------------------------------------------------~-> -------------------------- Want to discuss this topic? Head on over to our discussion list, [EMAIL PROTECTED] -------------------------- Brooks Isoldi, editor [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://www.intellnet.org Post message: osint@yahoogroups.com Subscribe: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Unsubscribe: [EMAIL PROTECTED] *** FAIR USE NOTICE. This message contains copyrighted material whose use has not been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. 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